Japan's COVID-19 Situation - One Question

DireWolf98

DireWolf98

Posting About Fuzoku Since 1994
Joined
Mar 6, 2016
Messages
1,813
Reaction score
3,230
I hope that I'm not being redundant by raising a previously-asked question ...

I've heard about Australian researchers are testing whether the Japanese tuberculosis drug Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) as a possible treatment of COVID-19.

This makes me wonder: Could BCG be one of the reasons for the lower infection statistics in Japan?

= = = = =

Beyond that, I'm sure everyone is up-to-speed on the situation. Here in the U.S., at least five companies have made noteworthy progress. Several companies have produced promising data, in connection with vaccine candidates, up to Phase II.

This is what I have heard through various sources:
  • A multiple-dose vaccine will probably be approved by the end of this year.
  • A multiple-dose vaccine will probably be available to most by Spring or Summer 2021.
  • Future Booster Shots might be necessary.
  • Things could return to semi-normal by Summer or Fall 2021.
  • Recent comments by Dr. Anthony Fauci seem to dovetail into those views.
As the situation unfolds, there is some current speculation that Proof of Vaccine might be a requirement for travel as well as attending sports and entertainment events.
 
I’ve heard rumors about this vaccine but doesn’t the effect of BCG vaccination remain inconclusive according to studies?
I am vaccinated against pretty much anything, including BCG. From an inherently selfish perspective that would be good news for me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ken1988 and DireWolf98
Simonka said:
I’ve heard rumors about this vaccine but doesn’t the effect of BCG vaccination remain inconclusive according to studies?
I am vaccinated against pretty much anything, including BCG. From a selfish perspective that would be good news for me.
Click to expand...
Australian researchers are reportedly currently testing BCG. I'm not sure if they have concluded their tests. I hope that it's effective.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Simonka
hrbb said:
Japan stats aren't so low now.. And the government was definitely covering up the numbers leading up to the decision to postpone the Olympics. I would take a new BCG over some evil Bill Gates shot any day though.
Click to expand...

yaaay! A conspiracy theory fan! we needed that for comic relief!

so what’s your take? The Japanese government decided to bury people in hiding under the Imperial Palace? Bill Gates is a reptilian, an Illuminati, or both?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ojaysee, monalisaoverdrive, notbobsaget and 2 others
Frenchy said:
so what’s your take? The Japanese government decided to bury people in hiding under the Imperial Palace?
Click to expand...

That would actually be pretty cool. Hundreds of years later they would wonder if those foreign bones are part of the Emperor family line or just belonging to a slave they used for sexual pleasure in ancient rites.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DireWolf98
They don't have to hide people to under-report infections. If you don't test, you don't find cases.

From what I've heard, you can't just walk into a testing centre and get tested in Japan? And nationwide, they're doing less than 20k tests/day?

In Ontario, anyone who has symptoms, or is concerned they may have been exposed, can get tested for free. Even non-residents who aren't covered by government health insurance. Lately, we're doing around 25-30k tests/day, for a population a little bigger than 東京都 (14.6 million). We've done over 2.4 million tests total (although a good chunk of the tests are people, like healthcare workers, who have been tested multiple times). We've had about 40k confirmed cases, of which just under 900 are currently active, and about 2,800 deaths. Mostly seniors in long-term care homes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: C4ssandra, capitanminchia, monalisaoverdrive and 2 others
MelissaAnne said:
They don't have to hide people to under-report infections. If you don't test, you don't find cases.

From what I've heard, you can't just walk into a testing centre and get tested in Japan? And nationwide, they're doing less than 20k tests/day?

In Ontario, anyone who has symptoms, or is concerned they may have been exposed, can get tested for free. Even non-residents who aren't covered by government health insurance. Lately, we're doing around 25-30k tests/day, for a population a little bigger than 東京都 (14.6 million). We've done over 2.4 million tests total (although a good chunk of the tests are people, like healthcare workers, who have been tested multiple times). We've had about 40k confirmed cases, of which just under 900 are currently active, and about 2,800 deaths. Mostly seniors in long-term care homes.
Click to expand...

i agree with you but there is a difference between “covering up the numbers” (which assumes you know them in the first place) and just ... not knowing the numbers
 
  • Like
Reactions: DireWolf98
Frenchy said:
i agree with you but there is a difference between “covering up the numbers” (which assumes you know them in the first place) and just ... not knowing the numbers
Click to expand...

Indeed and the important number is not the infected, as it seems pretty sure it's going to be everyone in the long run, but the number of fatalities. Which have been at the same low level in Japan since the beginning of June.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DireWolf98, Acid Burn, just4fun and 3 others
MikeH said:
Indeed and the important number is not the infected, as it seems pretty sure it's going to be everyone in the long run, but the number of fatalities. Which have been at the same low level in Japan since the beginning of June.
Click to expand...
At this point, I could care less about the infected or the testing amount... it doesn't change the situation. The critical cases and mortality rate are the only things I actually pay attention to. Those numbers hospitalized and death count, cannot be hidden despite what tinfoil hat people want you to believe.

The whole thing is just exhausting... got better things to be doing and focusing on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Acid Burn, Ken1988, DireWolf98 and 4 others
I also wanted to wade in to point out that whatever you think about the testing, Japan's overall mortality is absolutely in line with previous years.

That said we are learning more about the long term effects of covid infections so I will be delighted if I never get it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DireWolf98, Ken1988, Keihan Chikan and 1 other person
Tabanico said:
That said we are learning more about the long term effects of covid infections so I will be delighted if I never get it.
Click to expand...

That's what I'm worried about. Lots of emerging info here stateside regarding long-term damage to not just the heart but scar tissue in the lungs. As an avid runner (and avid alcoholic that needs to run to keep the weight off), that shit scares me. And as luck would have it, we've had two weeks or record surges in my current town.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Pk24, Acid Burn, Danbo and 2 others
Data as of 2020-08-13
Cases Deaths
New York State 428,155 32,399
New York City 233,859 23,610

Apparently, the combination of smoking and obesity has contributed to some fatalities. However, that hasn't been always the case.

Those that survive contribute to herd immunity, although as @Keihan Chikan mentioned, heart and lung damage seems to be prevalent.

Anecdotally, I know about eight people who have survived and only two people who didn't.

I'm not trying to ignite arguments here, I am genuinely curious about BCG as a potential solution.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ken1988 and TAG Manager
Keihan Chikan said:
As an avid runner (and avid alcoholic that needs to run to keep the weight off), that shit scares me.
Click to expand...

Aside from your political views you are a man after my own heart! And yeah, I have exactly the same fears. It will really piss me off if some shitty virus ravages my lungs so I can't exercise properly. These guns are not going to maintain themselves.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Keihan Chikan and DireWolf98
Every serious lung infection, like a bad case of seasonal influenza, will leave some temporary scars in your lungs. Anyone who claims to have data on long term effects of covid19 must have left their tinfoil hat too loose.

Meaning I will need some serious proof to start believing covid19 would have any worse long term effects than any other type of corona virus already out there.

Also I know people who have lost up to 10 percent of their lung capacity due to a disease and who still competed in top level in Europe so I am pretty confident runners like me and you guys are going to be a OK.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ken1988, Tabanico, DireWolf98 and 1 other person
MikeH said:
Anyone who claims to have data on long term effects of covid19 must have left their tinfoil hat too loose.
Click to expand...
I haven't read any such claims. However, I have read stories where doctors said they noticed scarred lung tissue in patients who recovered from COVID-19.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ken1988 and Tabanico
DireWolf98 said:
I haven't read any such claims. However, I have read stories where doctors said they noticed scarred lung tissue in patients who recovered from COVID-19.
Click to expand...

Which is exactly like with pneumonia or some other hundred or so diseases affecting lungs. And similarly to scars on your skin, while they of course in worst case scenario can be invalidating, mostly you won't even notice them in normal life.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DireWolf98
DireWolf98 said:
This makes me wonder: Could BCG be one of the reasons for the lower infection statistics in Japan?
Click to expand...

I think it's been rebuffed months ago when it turned out that BCG didn't spare Russia from the pandemic. Their BCG strain is close to Tokyo-172, a strain used in Japan.

About preexisting immunity, however, researchers found SARS-CoV-2 reactive CD4+ T cells in people who had not been exposed to the virus. In other words, some people may have preexisting immunity by the act of T cells reactive to SARS-CoV-2. Some researchers hypothesize that those people with the reactive T cells were exposed to "traditional" coronavirus that usually causes common cold in the recent past.
www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/does-the-common-cold-protect-you-from-covid-19--67792

More Japanese caught common cold last year? Not sure...but it seems to me that researchers are close to find some mechanisms as to how Covid gets serious for certain individuals while it gets only mild for others, and that's why some people, including Fauci, are optimistic about the ongoing vaccine development.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Pk24 and DireWolf98
Ken1988 said:
In other words, some people may have preexisting immunity by the act of T cells reactive to SARS-CoV-2.
Click to expand...
One of my friends from high school, an MD, suffered through a case of COVID-19 and survived. He was tested in the aftermath and was told that he has a natural immunity. He said he was happy to learn that he is immune, but he would prefer to not go through that unpleasant experience again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ken1988 and Tabanico
Ken1988 said:
I think it's been rebuffed months ago when it turned out that BCG didn't spare Russia from the pandemic. Their BCG strain is close to Tokyo-172, a strain used in Japan.
Click to expand...
My understanding was that the Australian researchers were interested in the concept, but had no attachment to it one way or another ...
 
Problem is also that the media coverage doesn't give you proper numbers to really have a complete picture.

Yeah, the long term effects sound scary and it's not just affecting lungs, heart but can also cause neurological damage. This is scary and these cases exist, but there is never any additional information given how many people that got it are really affected by these symptoms. Sure, it's hard to publish proper numbers because these are effects that can manifest months later, but if the numbers are very low the coverage is close to fear mongering.

If you read articles about long term damage they always make it sound as if the majority has these problems which is definitely not the case.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fifty Fifty, capitanminchia, DireWolf98 and 2 others
Danbo said:
Problem is also that the media coverage doesn't give you proper numbers to really have a complete picture.

Yeah, the long term effects sound scary and it's not just affecting lungs, heart but can also cause neurological damage. This is scary and these cases exist, but there is never any additional information given how many people that got it are really affected by these symptoms. Sure, it's hard to publish proper numbers because these are effects that can manifest months later, but if the numbers are very low the coverage is close to fear mongering.

If you read articles about long term damage they always make it sound as if the majority has these problems which is definitely not the case.
Click to expand...

And then there's the equally-dangerous flip side to this, which is the super mild cases that give everyone unrealistic hope. A friend of the family, retired lady in her early 70s, caught COVID about a month ago. According to her, she started feeling a little crappy, like when a cold or flu is coming on, and figured she should get tested just to be safe. She was shocked when it came back positive, because according to her, all she really had was a mild fever for a few days and was sleepy for another few days. After a week of just napping and watching soap operas all day she felt fine and was not particularly happy because health officials forced her to stay in quarantine for another two weeks. Now all her other old-lady friends are thinking it may not be so bad for them, either.

All I know is, FUCK 2020. And possibly 2021, too, if I can't pull my pants down in Gotanda next year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DireWolf98, Sudsy, Acid Burn and 3 others
Keihan Chikan said:
And then there's the equally-dangerous flip side to this, which is the super mild cases that give everyone unrealistic hope. A friend of the family, retired lady in her early 70s, caught COVID about a month ago. According to her, she started feeling a little crappy, like when a cold or flu is coming on, and figured she should get tested just to be safe. She was shocked when it came back positive, because according to her, all she really had was a mild fever for a few days and was sleepy for another few days. After a week of just napping and watching soap operas all day she felt fine and was not particularly happy because health officials forced her to stay in quarantine for another two weeks. Now all her other old-lady friends are thinking it may not be so bad for them, either.

All I know is, FUCK 2020. And possibly 2021, too, if I can't pull my pants down in Gotanda next year.
Click to expand...

My friend outside japan has caught it at the moment as well. Along with her family, likely infected by her father because he refused to wear a mask at home while he was coughing all over the place.
She had a bad fever for like 2-3 days. Then felt fine, got a bit of coughing and a runny nose and now has lost sense of smell and taste. Same as her mother. Other than that, she’s feeling fine. It’s been like almost 2 or so weeks since it started. None in her family have serious symptoms. she’s getting really annoyed now that she can’t taste food....
 
  • Like
Reactions: SugoiBoy, monalisaoverdrive, Ken1988 and 1 other person
You must log in or register to reply here.