The Next US President is....

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SugoiBoy said:
Well, Bob Dole finally kicked the bucket. He represented a different era in American politics. He was a Republican from Kansas. Yet, he was apparently close to the late Daniel Inouye, a Democrat from Hawaii. They were both seriously injured while serving in Europe with the US Army during WW2.

Many politicians from that generation had a key common bond from having been veterans. It helped them to sometimes reach across the aisle to actually get things done.
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Well, there's a little more to that story than just that. I actually have some interesting connections to Dan Inouye, for better or worse, and worked with his office pretty extensively when I was in D.C. I also worked against him. And I know a lot more about his history than Wikipedia will ever let on.

Bob Dole and Dan Inouye were both injured fighting in Europe, both being right-handed soldiers who took direct hits to their right arms, and they actually ended up bunked next to each other in the military hospital. That's how the friendship began. And Dole, who came from a very political family, began telling Inouye about all of his plans to go home and try to become a Republican Congressman. Prior to that, Dan had no political aspirations. But Dole began encouraging him to explore the GOP and get into politics. At the time, the Republican Party was largely seen as the party of war heroes (like Eisenhower) so it appealed to Inouye, and by the time he got shipped back to Hawaii he was ready to go.

At the time Pearl Harbor was bombed, Hawaii was over 40% ethnic Japanese. However, the Hawaii GOP dominated state politics and was a party controlled by wealthy white business elites. Inouye approached GOP leadership about joining the party, and was promptly informed that they "didn't want any j*ps" in the GOP. And Inouye wasn't the only Japanese combat vet (442nd/100th) to come home with political aspirations. All of those Japanese boys coming home from war basically banded together, looking for other options for entering politics, and were introduced to a virtually non-existent party in Hawaii called the Democratic Party. And within two decades, that band of Japanese vets built that party into a massive, monolithic, Japanese-run political machine that has dominated the state for well over half a century.

But don't go worshipping Dan Inouye just yet. He was nicknamed "The One-Armed Bandit" after his reputation for stealing valuables off dead bodies on the battlefield. He was also accused in multiple instances of physical assault and sexual assault, most notably when he beat the shit out of and then raped his hairdresser. He ascended to third-in-line to the American Presidency, and he didn't do it by being a nice guy.

Bob Dole, however, from everything I've ever heard about him, was the real deal and funny/mean as shit. I would've liked to have gone drinking with the guy, and I've hated almost every second spent with virtually every politician I've ever met.
 
Keihan said:
Well, there's a little more to that story than just that. I actually have some interesting connections to Dan Inouye, for better or worse, and worked with his office pretty extensively when I was in D.C. I also worked against him. And I know a lot more about his history than Wikipedia will ever let on.

Bob Dole and Dan Inouye were both injured fighting in Europe, both being right-handed soldiers who took direct hits to their right arms, and they actually ended up bunked next to each other in the military hospital. That's how the friendship began. And Dole, who came from a very political family, began telling Inouye about all of his plans to go home and try to become a Republican Congressman. Prior to that, Dan had no political aspirations. But Dole began encouraging him to explore the GOP and get into politics. At the time, the Republican Party was largely seen as the party of war heroes (like Eisenhower) so it appealed to Inouye, and by the time he got shipped back to Hawaii he was ready to go.

At the time Pearl Harbor was bombed, Hawaii was over 40% ethnic Japanese. However, the Hawaii GOP dominated state politics and was a party controlled by wealthy white business elites. Inouye approached GOP leadership about joining the party, and was promptly informed that they "didn't want any j*ps" in the GOP. And Inouye wasn't the only Japanese combat vet (442nd/100th) to come home with political aspirations. All of those Japanese boys coming home from war basically banded together, looking for other options for entering politics, and were introduced to a virtually non-existent party in Hawaii called the Democratic Party. And within two decades, that band of Japanese vets built that party into a massive, monolithic, Japanese-run political machine that has dominated the state for well over half a century.

But don't go worshipping Dan Inouye just yet. He was nicknamed "The One-Armed Bandit" after his reputation for stealing valuables off dead bodies on the battlefield. He was also accused in multiple instances of physical assault and sexual assault, most notably when he beat the shit out of and then raped his hairdresser. He ascended to third-in-line to the American Presidency, and he didn't do it by being a nice guy.

Bob Dole, however, from everything I've ever heard about him, was the real deal and funny/mean as shit. I would've liked to have gone drinking with the guy, and I've hated almost every second spent with virtually every politician I've ever met.
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Now that you mention it, I do vaguely recall the allegations against Senator Inoyue involving the hairdresser. However, I never before heard the claim that he stole stuff off of dead bodies during the war. Somehow I find that one harder to believe. If it did happened, then it would have been while he still had both his arms.

In any event, my point was that instances of bipartisan cooperation in American politics seemed to be more common a few decades ago. Of course, there are multiple reasons for that. Yet, I place much of the blame on the various echo chambers (right-wing, left-wing, religious, non-religious, etc.) that have developed. The phenomenon predates social media. One might identify the end of the FCC's Fairness Doctrine as a turning point. Of course, social media has amplified things greatly.
 
SugoiBoy said:
Now that you mention it, I do vaguely recall the allegations against Senator Inoyue involving the hairdresser. However, I never before heard the claim that he stole stuff off of dead bodies during the war. Somehow I find that one harder to believe. If it did happened, then it would have been while he still had both his arms.

In any event, my point was that instances of bipartisan cooperation in American politics seemed to be more common a few decades ago. Of course, there are multiple reasons for that. Yet, I place much of the blame on the various echo chambers (right-wing, left-wing, religious, non-religious, etc.) that have developed. The phenomenon predates social media. One might identify the end of the FCC's Fairness Doctrine as a turning point. Of course, social media has amplified things greatly.
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well, yes and no
They still have a few MPs who dare to cross the aisle sometimes, like for Trump’s second impeachment or on the recent infrastructure bill (and there were “renegades” on both sides)
But yeah, given all the noise and non-sense, including death threats, that you could get nowadays for doing so… must be tougher than before
 
I don't think the next President is going to matter.
 
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None of you are going to like hearing this but there's a very distinct possibility that Trump could be sworn-in as President in January 2025. And it really isn't hard to see how this happens.

1) The GOP efforts to banish him from the party have failed miserably. Moreover, the party has failed even more miserably in recruiting a flagship nominee. A year ago Nikki Haley was the IT GIRL and was being prepped to be the candidate; she suddenly just dropped off the radar. Now, you have FL Gov Ron Desantis posturing like he's the second coming and he's all but announced his candidacy; Desantis is a fucking royal douchebag who may be popular with the borderline-retarded Flori-DUH anti-vaxxer electorate but he's like an even-more-hated Ted Cruz everywhere else in America. And all polling is showing Trump absolutely trounces Desantis in a head-to-head primary. Trump, no surprise, has even bragged that he'd destroy Desantis in a GOP primary and he's right.

2) Even if Joe Biden is still alive and not in an elderly care facility in 2024, he will be Miss America 2024 before he's the Democrat nominee in 2024. He's clearly going senile, his mental faculties are fading almost as quickly as his approval ratings (his "strongly disapprove" ratings are eight times higher than either GWB or BO at this point in the first term) and it's painfully obvious that he's not even cognizant of what's going on around him anymore. In fact, the only politician with disapproval ratings even shittier than Biden is Kamala Harris, who now has the worst approval ratings of any American Vice President in recorded history. And every reliable poll taken this year shows that in a Trump/Biden or Trump/Harris match-up, Big Orange absolutely destroys the competition.

3) Vladimir Putin invading sovereign countries, NK launching missiles like it's July 4th, gas prices hitting new historical records every week, worst inflation in two generations and most Americans just wanting to shed all recollection of COVID and 2020 and anything and everything that reminds them of that era.

The entire political climate on both sides is absolutely desperate for new leadership and compelling candidates. But there is no JFK, Ronald Reagan or Obama waiting in the wings. The Democrats are saddled with an ailing, demented old fool (whose family is about to be investigated for corruption, BTW) and a cackling jackass twat that got to where she is in life on her back, and a petulant, egomaniacal blowhard who has managed to keep himself relevant and in the spotlight and then there's the fact that even the staunchest Trump Hater will have to admit that shit was lightyears better when that pompous child was in office.

Want my prediction? Trump will be the GOP nominee, he will select Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate and that ticket will handily win in November 2024.
 
Keihan said:
Want my prediction? Trump will be the GOP nominee, he will select Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate and that ticket will handily win in November 2024.
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and we all know how your predictions materialize.. :D
 
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Frenchy said:
and we all know how your predictions materialize.. :D
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I also predicted the pandemic would be over by summer 2020. My resume speaks for itself. But if this one actually comes true, circle-jerk party at your house!
 
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Keihan said:
I also predicted the pandemic would be over by summer 2020. My resume speaks for itself. But if this one actually comes true, circle-jerk party at your house!
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Seriously I would like you to consider an equity analyst position. I want to know each stock you predict will rise or fall, so that we can respectively short or buy them .
I know that presented like this it’s a bit painful for the ego , but the pay can quickly compensate for such minor inconvenience if you are as accurate as you have been so far.
 
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We could all be glowing in the dark by 2024 the way things are going.
 
Keihan said:
None of you are going to like hearing this but there's a very distinct possibility that Trump could be sworn-in as President in January 2025. And it really isn't hard to see how this happens.

1) The GOP efforts to banish him from the party have failed miserably. Moreover, the party has failed even more miserably in recruiting a flagship nominee. A year ago Nikki Haley was the IT GIRL and was being prepped to be the candidate; she suddenly just dropped off the radar. Now, you have FL Gov Ron Desantis posturing like he's the second coming and he's all but announced his candidacy; Desantis is a fucking royal douchebag who may be popular with the borderline-retarded Flori-DUH anti-vaxxer electorate but he's like an even-more-hated Ted Cruz everywhere else in America. And all polling is showing Trump absolutely trounces Desantis in a head-to-head primary. Trump, no surprise, has even bragged that he'd destroy Desantis in a GOP primary and he's right.

2) Even if Joe Biden is still alive and not in an elderly care facility in 2024, he will be Miss America 2024 before he's the Democrat nominee in 2024. He's clearly going senile, his mental faculties are fading almost as quickly as his approval ratings (his "strongly disapprove" ratings are eight times higher than either GWB or BO at this point in the first term) and it's painfully obvious that he's not even cognizant of what's going on around him anymore. In fact, the only politician with disapproval ratings even shittier than Biden is Kamala Harris, who now has the worst approval ratings of any American Vice President in recorded history. And every reliable poll taken this year shows that in a Trump/Biden or Trump/Harris match-up, Big Orange absolutely destroys the competition.

3) Vladimir Putin invading sovereign countries, NK launching missiles like it's July 4th, gas prices hitting new historical records every week, worst inflation in two generations and most Americans just wanting to shed all recollection of COVID and 2020 and anything and everything that reminds them of that era.

The entire political climate on both sides is absolutely desperate for new leadership and compelling candidates. But there is no JFK, Ronald Reagan or Obama waiting in the wings. The Democrats are saddled with an ailing, demented old fool (whose family is about to be investigated for corruption, BTW) and a cackling jackass twat that got to where she is in life on her back, and a petulant, egomaniacal blowhard who has managed to keep himself relevant and in the spotlight and then there's the fact that even the staunchest Trump Hater will have to admit that shit was lightyears better when that pompous child was in office.

Want my prediction? Trump will be the GOP nominee, he will select Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate and that ticket will handily win in November 2024.
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Ya really think so? Jailbird Donny......here we go

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just4fun said:
Ya really think so? Jailbird Donny......here we go

299484535_10217526418632238_6198230928382726889_n.jpg
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They're not trying to send him to jail. They're trying for a conviction so that he's disqualified from holding public office for the rest of his life. And it's Democrats AND Republicans behind it.

But like I said, the two parties have a bigger problem right now, in that neither side has a flagship candidate. The Dems are worse off because they do have an heir apparent and she's even worse than their current horse. I believe 75% of registered Democrats polled last month didn't want Biden to run again in 2024, but those same polls showed Kamala with something like an 18% approval rating. Notice you don't see her being trotted out, ever? On the GOP side, the vast majority of Republicans polled say they don't want Trump to run again in 2024, but again, the problem is they lack a star candidate and Douchebag Desantis is still posturing like he's in the race.

I really don't care, at this point. I parted ways with the GOP, I'm far too ambitious to go with the idiotic Dems (who will lose Congress in November) and I don't have much free time. I'm setting loftier goals for myself this year--get my pre-COVID figure back, go to Japan, buy myself nice shit and begin working on a very ambitious, very risky business prospect. But what we're witnessing in politics right now is just the natural ebb and flow of things and the system naturally correcting itself, especially during difficult times. Trump becomes POTUS, enrages nation, nation takes his Congress away and gives it to Dems two years later, nation kicks him out two years later; Biden is now POTUS, currently enraging nation, nation will take his Congress away in November and give it to GOP, nation will kick Biden out two years later and elect a Republican again; and so forth, and back and forth, as was with Obama, and GWB and Clinton and whoever the next guy/girl is. The only thing that interrupts this natural cycle is basically a major war, in which incumbents are given a hallway pass. But I don't think a single American would ever look at Biden and say, "THAT'S WHO I WANT AS MY COMMANDER IN CHIEF DURING WW3!!" so he might be the exception.

But I'm not worried about a war. We're finally coming out of the pandemic and the whole world just wants to go out and do normal shit again, not fight with each other. Putin's going to get whacked from within his own government and then it'll be international business as usual. I just want to get back to Japan before all that "international" can come to Japan again.
 
China/Taiwan is coming soon.
 
just4fun said:
China/Taiwan is coming soon.
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I'm no geopolitical expert but I don't think so. Xi and his government have had ample opportunity to witness how the global community is financially neutering Putin and Russia for what they've done to Ukraine. If the Chinese are good at one thing--one respectable thing, that is--it's making and managing money. Bombing Taiwan would be the most egregiously expensive mistake they've ever made. They'll rattle their little dicks and do some training exercises but in the end all will go back to normal. Hopefully.
 
just4fun said:
China/Taiwan is coming soon.
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Nah, the fact that it would be economic suicide aside, the CCP don't have the logistical ability to get a force across the strait to take and hold the island.

They'd have to mass troops on a handful of ports and take them across 200 km of open ocean through a strait that's patrolled by US subs.

Problem they have is that satellites see all, and before they completed prep to move the troops, the USN would have a whackload of subs ready and waiting to torpedo the lot.

Then, with what troops survive the crossing, they'd have to take the entire island fast enough to fortify the Pacific side against an amphibious landing by Taiwan's allies' forces (mainly US) - and that would be with heavy resistance from the local military, who are a lot more motivated than the PLA conscripts.

On top of that, the Chinese navy isn't battle tested. China has never waged a naval campaign, and they'd be going up against the yanks, who actually know what they're doing in a sea battle.

Xi isn't going to risk his economy on a war he can't possibly win.
 
Let's hope so......I know the Yanks wanna try out some new gear and who else deserves to be the guinea pigs than the CCP followers. Imagine if Taiwan was governing all of China? Whew.....serious economic #1

Then again, a failing economy jumps right back up by killing everyone. History repeating itself.
 
Keihan said:
They're not trying to send him to jail. They're trying for a conviction so that he's disqualified from holding public office for the rest of his life. And it's Democrats AND Republicans behind it.

But like I said, the two parties have a bigger problem right now, in that neither side has a flagship candidate. The Dems are worse off because they do have an heir apparent and she's even worse than their current horse. I believe 75% of registered Democrats polled last month didn't want Biden to run again in 2024, but those same polls showed Kamala with something like an 18% approval rating. Notice you don't see her being trotted out, ever? On the GOP side, the vast majority of Republicans polled say they don't want Trump to run again in 2024, but again, the problem is they lack a star candidate and Douchebag Desantis is still posturing like he's in the race.

I really don't care, at this point. I parted ways with the GOP, I'm far too ambitious to go with the idiotic Dems (who will lose Congress in November) and I don't have much free time. I'm setting loftier goals for myself this year--get my pre-COVID figure back, go to Japan, buy myself nice shit and begin working on a very ambitious, very risky business prospect. But what we're witnessing in politics right now is just the natural ebb and flow of things and the system naturally correcting itself, especially during difficult times. Trump becomes POTUS, enrages nation, nation takes his Congress away and gives it to Dems two years later, nation kicks him out two years later; Biden is now POTUS, currently enraging nation, nation will take his Congress away in November and give it to GOP, nation will kick Biden out two years later and elect a Republican again; and so forth, and back and forth, as was with Obama, and GWB and Clinton and whoever the next guy/girl is. The only thing that interrupts this natural cycle is basically a major war, in which incumbents are given a hallway pass. But I don't think a single American would ever look at Biden and say, "THAT'S WHO I WANT AS MY COMMANDER IN CHIEF DURING WW3!!" so he might be the exception.

But I'm not worried about a war. We're finally coming out of the pandemic and the whole world just wants to go out and do normal shit again, not fight with each other. Putin's going to get whacked from within his own government and then it'll be international business as usual. I just want to get back to Japan before all that "international" can come to Japan again.
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I would have sworn that you'd be first in line to stop the electoral college count :p
 
just4fun said:
I would have sworn that you'd be first in line to stop the electoral college count :p
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You kidding??? I love the electoral college, and not like how Democrats love it until Hillary loses. I loved it in 2000 and every election since. Always gets the job done.

What I don't love is all mail-in ballots. That is the single most effective vehicle for labor unions to employ membership coercion, particularly to immigrant labor. They regularly do it to my employees, but it's always in favor of Democrat candidates so nobody bats an eyelash and no media outlet would ever cover it. That's just the cost of doing business in a blue state. I say, if you can't beat'em, jerk them off and enjoy the profits.
 
In light of what happened today, I'm officially changing my prediction.

Most here probably hadn't heard, and rightfully so, but U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (Republican-WY, daughter of Dick Cheney) was defeated today in her primary election battle by a Trump-backed, anti-vaxx nut job. That's no surprise, given that we're talking about WYOMING (and I'm so very glad they mean jack shit in the electoral college). Cheney was one of the very few Republicans in Congress who voted to impeach Trump after the Capitol riots, sits on the January 6th commission (aimed at prosecuting Trump) and has vowed to do everything in her power to ensure he's never elected president again.

My prediction: Liz Cheney will run for president in 2024, and I think she has a very, very good chance of winning for the following reasons:

1) Obviously, she comes from one of the most powerful political dynasties in history and has the full backing of the establishment GOP network, which has gone into hiding during the age of Trump but is eagerly awaiting a return to power and desperately wants Trump gone.

2) She is being hailed--by both Republicans AND Democrats--as one of the few brave members of the GOP willing to risk her neck and, ultimately, lose her seat to wage war against Trump and prevent him from a return to power. Democrats love her. And her classic GOP creds--support for military funding, cutting federal taxes and regulations, supporting the private sector and upholding Constitutional Rights--are all very, very solid. After all, this is Dick Cheney's daughter.

3) She is one of the few "conservative" Republicans who is also firmly pro-LGBT, coming out in full support of her lesbian sister.

Liz Cheney has simultaneously positioned herself as both a champion of the establishment GOP of old days and a heroine of Trump-haters from all across the political spectrum, all despite her family name--after all, most snowflake pussy kids now weren't even alive or at least toilet-trained when her dad was VP. That's quite a feat. She has closer personal relationships with Democratic leaders in both the House and Senate (they're actually friends) than most high-profile Democrats, including Kamala Harris, who is widely-reviled by her former Democrat colleagues in the Senate. The hardcore "conservatives" in Congress, or those who identify with so-called FREEDOM (shitkicker) CAUCUS in the House may hate her, but most Americans hate them, so that's not going to be an issue.

If Cheney decides to run for president in 2024, the establishment GOP will rally around her like nothing we've seen in decades, and if it's a TRUMP vs CHENEY battle in the August 2024 primary, I can almost guarantee you will see a record number of registered Democrats pulling Republican ballots just to vote against Trump and keep him out of the general elections. After all, why bother wasting your vote in the Dem primary when it's an incumbent lock? And then when it's a CHENEY vs HARRIS contest in November 2024 (There is no way Joe Biden will be running again), considering Kamala Harris' approval ratings are lower than any VP in recorded history and the WH doesn't even want her out in public anymore (check the news, she'll be in Cali and Hawaii for three weeks and not a single public appearance), I can very seriously see a situation where even the DNC basically throws in the towel (secretly) and just lets Cheney waltz into the WH.

And just like that, the first woman elected POTUS will be a Republican. Suck on that one.

And that is the official Keihan Prediction for 2024.
 
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