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Daily WHO Reports for the Coronavirus Outbreak (Link)

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_09531.html

Some stats as of Friday (they don't include the cruise ship cases in the above press release),

Total 978 tested; 33 positive.
Among the positives, 17 hospitalized for mild symptoms, 3 hospitalized but remain asymptomatic, 12 discharged as recovered (tests turned negative), 1 dead.

It's a new virus that has jumped to human just recently...probably it's still in the process of evolution and adaptation. Hope it doesn't make things complicated too much...
To an individual, it's nastier than the fatality rate suggests, because sometimes death might not be the worst outcome.

Survival from ARDS is.

To the public, it's an epidemic that infected and killed more people than SARS and MERS combined in less than 2 months.
 
I am not that stupid.

People there have been eye-witnessing how nasty this outbreak is and are more willing to buy at whatever price I'd like to charge.

The first claim is debatable. And trolling or not the second is compatible to the way you are demonstrating yourself here.
 
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The way CDC estimates the death toll of flu is totally different from the way Ministry of Health of Japan counts the death toll of NCP.
And flu is known and given. There is a history, a timetable, it's predicable year by year, and there's a vaccine. If one person dies on that cruise ship, it will be a PR disaster upcoming the Olympics for Japan's emergency response capabilities.
 
If one person dies on that cruise ship, it will be a PR disaster upcoming the Olympics for Japan's emergency response capabilities.

Doing quarantine onboard of a cruise ship is a PR (and public health) disaster to begin with.

Lack of testing facilities is another one.

v2-cde03fa43e30dd61144430f7f0f193a9_mh1581700427203.jpg


Relying solely on PCR test will inevitably lead to more disasters.

Please Mr. Kono just give a phone call to the Chinese and ask them why they suddenly abandoned PCR and resorted to clinical diagnosis to find out 15000 more cases within a day.
 
I hope while they are at it, that they forensically analyze this perfect live test lab and every air duct, door knob, bar table, wine glass, and water treatment system of that ship on a timeline regarding the spread and do a 3 hour talk show with a pointing glove wand.
 
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I tend to be very skeptical of the media’s apocalyptic reporting on infectious diseases, but this one is beginning to sound more seriously scary to me:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...06aa08-4eb8-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html

The fact that so many doctors and nurses are infected indicates that the normal precautions they take when dealing with infected patients are failing for this virus. This could lead to the “collapse” of the medical care system and thus greatly increase the mortality rate.

Seems like the best business to have right now is being a Florist.
 
The news just broke that an infected Japanese tourist from Aichi spent 11 days in Hawaii, returned to Japan on 2/8 and was symptomatic on 2/9. I said it before, Hawaii would be where the American outbreak kicks off and here it is. This asshole went to Hawaii showing symptoms of what he thought was a cold and infected two of the biggest tourism hotspots in the state. That's potentially hundreds or even thousands of tourists, air passengers and staff from around the world taking home a nice virus with them this week and most of them will be Japanese and Americans. China really is a curse on the human race and planet.
 
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Yeah, watching that now on Hawaii news. They are saying he developed symptoms while there and unsure if he caught it there. Hope he wasn't on our trains.
 
The fact that so many doctors and nurses are infected indicates that the normal precautions they take when dealing with infected patients are failing for this virus. This could lead to the “collapse” of the medical care system and thus greatly increase the mortality rate.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-confirms-coronavirus-is-airborne/ar-BBZOXg2

So far I've only found this article on MSN but not a lot about this was reported on other news sites......could be an explanation. I think most medical staff only had regular precautions like masks, gloves, protection for the eyes. If there is a possibility for transmission via air, these measures are not enough. I still think most new infections are caused by direct exposure to fluids etc, but if air is also a possibility it makes it nearly impossible to treat so many patients in a safe environment. That's what makes it kinda scary......no way to deal with that.
 
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If there is a possibility for transmission via air, these measures are not enough. I still think most new infections are caused by direct exposure to fluids etc, but if air is also a possibility it makes it nearly impossible to treat so many patients in a safe environment. That's what makes it kinda scary......no way to deal with that.

Anyone with a proper memory of SARS would remember how airborne transmission became a nightmare in Hong Kong.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/16696

Yet the incompetent Hong Kong government failed to prevent it from happening again.

https://www.livescience.com/amp/coronavirus-spread-building-pipes.html

But no, it's not the main reason those doctors and nurses got infected in China. They were just victims of desperate shortage of protective gears.
 
The fact that so many doctors and nurses are infected indicates that the normal precautions they take when dealing with infected patients are failing for this virus. This could lead to the “collapse” of the medical care system and thus greatly increase the mortality rate.
It was the collapse of the medical care system that in turn led to infections of so many doctors and nurses.

The hospitals in Wuhan were swarmed with patients. Inventories of masks, goggles and protective suites ran out in a few days. It was spring festival so factories and deliveries were closed. And later the whole city was locked down.

The hospitals had to rely on their own and recycle/DIY their protective gears, which, it turned out now, was apparently not enough.

33.jpg RpF9VSD9cEvYsJ.jpeg 0.jpeg Rp9Q0wr8jCnXMK_mh1581753873176.jpg
 
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Yeah, watching that now on Hawaii news. They are saying he developed symptoms while there and unsure if he caught it there. Hope he wasn't on our trains.

If you look at the timeline and his own accounts of how the symptoms were progressing, the passenger was most likely already infected when he left Nagoya bound for Maui and then Honolulu. That means he potentially infected who knows how many people in Nagoya (where I'm headed shortly, very conveniently) and then the staff and passengers around him at Chubu Centrair and on his flight to HNL and OGG, and then of course the thousands of tourists, staff and locals he interacted with in the next 11 days while in Hawaii and then everyone around him at the airport and on the plane on his trip home. My buddy in Honolulu sent me a message today saying that the entire island is basically sold out of face masks, as the panic is slowly setting in and the particularly useless morons that run the state government sit around at impromptu press conferences with their thumbs up their asses promising that there's nothing to worry about.

We're probably two or three weeks out from a legitimate pandemic. Time to shift the focus from containment to development of vaccines and effective treatments.
 
We're probably two or three weeks out from a legitimate pandemic. Time to shift the focus from containment to development of vaccines and effective treatments.

Yes there is literally an arms race among giant drugmakers to work out a vaccine. My 100 bucks bet is on Regeneron, but others also look promising.
 
I know my pessimism has made a few folks here feel uncomfortable, but here is today's share of bad news:

a. The cruise ship Westerdam finally disembarked at Cambodia after 2 weeks of sailing. More than 2,000 passengers landed on this underdeveloped country with virtually nonexistant public health facilities. No quarantine measures were taken. And now there's a positive case among them (no surprise).

b, 4 taxi drivers have been infected in Tokyo, from as early as Jan. 18th.

c, The deceased old lady has been hospitalised for 1 week in multiple hospitals without being diagnosed.

d, The confirmed cases in Chiba has been commuting on Sobu Line for 2 days after he had symptoms.

e, One of the confirmed cases in Tokyo was onboard of Shinkansen to Nagoya on Feb 10th.

f, 5 cases have been confirmed in the hospital in Wakayama.


Let me remind those of you in Japan of what happend in Hubei Province last month:

There were 41 confirmed cases and 1 death in Hubei Province by Jan. 16th, 2020.

The whole area had to be locked down one week later (Jan. 23th, 2020).

Up to today (Feb. 16th, 2020), the official number of confirmed cases province-wide is 54,406, and total death toll is 1,457.

Now in Japan there are 40 confirmed cases and 1 death by Feb. 16th, 2020 (excluding those on Diamond Princess and charter flights).

It's time to be really careful.
 
The risk of contracting mass hysteria is much higher than contracting the coronavirus or dying due to its complications I guess.. There’s nothing like an emerging health crisis that brings out the horror movie fan in all of us.

Panic and fear will only harm my immune system. Personally as a young healthy woman who is not immunosuppressed I am more scared of diseases that could potentially lead to my long term suffering, like cancer.

We will all die someday and if this virus kills me, which is unlikely, at least it will be relatively instant.
 
the number of exposed >the number of infected >the number of symptomatic > the number of symptomatic with lower respiratory tract inflammation > the number of fatality.

It's no Ebola.

One of the early estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 is 1 percent. It's below SARS (10 percent) and above seasonal influenza (0.1 - 0.2 percent).
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

and a caveat for any estimation at this stage.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/13/case-fatality-rate-coronavirus-severity/

Panic and fear will only harm my immune system.

Indeed. No need to panic to put yourself vulnerable from the stress.
 
I know my pessimism has made a few folks here feel uncomfortable, but here is today's share of bad news:

You're not a pessimist, you're a fearmongering jerkoff who appears to get some kind of kick posting half truths and rumours, along with unfounded speculation.
 
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I know my pessimism has made a few folks here feel uncomfortable, but here is today's share of bad news:

a. The cruise ship Westerdam finally disembarked at Cambodia after 2 weeks of sailing. More than 2,000 passengers landed on this underdeveloped country with virtually nonexistant public health facilities. No quarantine measures were taken. And now there's a positive case among them (no surprise).

b, 4 taxi drivers have been infected in Tokyo, from as early as Jan. 18th.

c, The deceased old lady has been hospitalised for 1 week in multiple hospitals without being diagnosed.

d, The confirmed cases in Chiba has been commuting on Sobu Line for 2 days after he had symptoms.

e, One of the confirmed cases in Tokyo was onboard of Shinkansen to Nagoya on Feb 10th.

f, 5 cases have been confirmed in the hospital in Wakayama.


Let me remind those of you in Japan of what happend in Hubei Province last month:

There were 41 confirmed cases and 1 death in Hubei Province by Jan. 16th, 2020.

The whole area had to be locked down one week later (Jan. 23th, 2020).

Up to today (Feb. 16th, 2020), the official number of confirmed cases province-wide is 54,406, and total death toll is 1,457.

Now in Japan there are 40 confirmed cases and 1 death by Feb. 16th, 2020 (excluding those on Diamond Princess and charter flights). It’s time to be careful.
.
Agree that is time to be careful and a bit skeptical too. But we should also be careful of making obvious mistakes in logic, jumping to conclusions and deliberately trying to foment panic. What you have written is a simple classic false comparison of irrelevant facts. Yes there was a point in time when there was a report of 41 cases in Hubei, and now there are 41 cases in Japan. Wuuuuuuu.....Would you like us all to get goose bumps now like you are Sherlock Holmes who has uncovered a brilliant clue that we all missed? So what? Hubei was the starting point. Everyone knows that the virus had been spread far and wide long before the Chinese had their testing infrastructure up and running. There is no comparison to that situation and the current situation in Japan where we have been watching since the first cases. Zero.
 
The death rate is so incredibly low, and emerging diseases like this happen relatively often, I just can’t understand personally why the entire world is panicking?

Panic has obviously set in. But from a public health perspective, the virus needs to be contained and monitored because it is new to the human.
 
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