Investment products?

that's a pretty sharp falling knife.


is there a need for declaring and paying taxes without PR?
PR for visa and tax purposes are two quite different beasts. Live five years and you are permanent resident for tax purposes and you need to declare your assets and pay taxes for all income globally.

Even before that anything you earn in Japan is taxed here.
I wasn't sure if this was serious or not, but wouldn't there be some kind of banking service that allows you to open a bank account locally with foreign currency and earn interest rate at the foreigner currency? I've heard that in Hong Kong.
Besides do you have the super power to open bank accounts in foreign countries?
I don't think I have acquired that superpower yet, at least I don't think I can in Japan.
what MikeH said. Japan makes everything hard for you. They want you to keep your money in yen in a Japanese bank at.00000003 percent interest. Or they are happy for you to buy foreign currency through them with fees and rates that you will not see anywhere in the civilized world. Highway robbery. If you try to move your money out of the country, both the banks and the government don’t make it easy and they ask intrusive questions. Until sometime in the 1970s it was illegal for Japanese citizens to buy foreign currency or have accounts in other countries. It’s legal now, but they don’t like it.
 
Egyptian EGP T-bills look so attractive. Currency devaluation risk has subsided for now for a recovering level of foreign reserves while the 3-months T-bill yield still stands at 17%...but, you need a local broker account and a local bank account to purchase the T-bills, Besides, probably you may need the super power to repatriate the money invested.
 
Egyptian EGP T-bills look so attractive. Currency devaluation risk has subsided for now for a recovering level of foreign reserves while the 3-months T-bill yield still stands at 17%...but, you need a local broker account and a local bank account to purchase the T-bills, Besides, probably you may need the super power to repatriate the money invested.
Price drop, currency drop, default risk, and finally the biggest risk of all: The risk of being fucked over in some sneaky way because it is Egypt. Egyptian guy has a camel and a sign that says Ride the Camel 5$. Tourist pays $5 and Egyptian guy helps him climb up on the camel. Egyptian guy turns the sign around and it says, $50 Get Down off Camel.
 
When a person is willing to borrow money from you and give you 17% interest rate and other people are only giving out 5%, it's likely the first person is not very trustworthy.

China has a restriction of the amount of USD to convert, does Japan has a similar restriction?
 
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Price drop, currency drop, default risk, and finally the biggest risk of all: The risk of being fucked over in some sneaky way because it is Egypt. Egyptian guy has a camel and a sign that says Ride the Camel 5$. Tourist pays $5 and Egyptian guy helps him climb up on the camel. Egyptian guy turns the sign around and it says, $50 Get Down off Camel.

You surely know about the cross-default clause and pari passu, and you surely know that a sovereign default is extremely rare. Over the last 20 years, EGP has been stable except the devaluations in 2003, 2011 and 2016. IMF is pushing to adopt crawling-peg (gradual devaluation) of EGP but the government is obviously resisting as it is the world's largest importer of grains - a further devaluation can trigger a flour riot. That being said, yes, a broker can be the camel guy and yes, it's Egypt.
 
When a person is willing to borrow money from you and give you 17% interest rate and other people are only giving out 5%, it's likely the first person is not very trustworthy.

China has a restriction of the amount of USD to convert, does Japan has a similar restriction?

Simply in Egypt, inflation rate went up to 30% yoy on average last year. The government would be very happy to borrow at 17%. Under this circumstance, the artificially sticky EGP/USD exchange rate creates the arbitrage opportunity of the yield difference (ah, but the camel guy...)
 
You surely know about the cross-default clause and pari passu, and you surely know that a sovereign default is extremely rare. Over the last 20 years, EGP has been stable except the devaluations in 2003, 2011 and 2016. IMF is pushing to adopt crawling-peg (gradual devaluation) of EGP but the government is obviously resisting as it is the world's largest importer of grains - a further devaluation can trigger a flour riot. That being said, yes, a broker can be the camel guy and yes, it's Egypt.
As I said, I am sure it is efficiently priced at 17%. But I know that a three month 17% bond is for pros with a very specific goal in mind. I suggest longer term bonds, both corp and sovereign, in the 10 yr YTM of 5 to 9% range if you have a few mil USD to play with. Ladder them and plan to hold to maturity. Never buy anything that is less than BB but buy a lot of BB. Even in this range you might have to sell quickly at a loss on bonds that are about to default. It happens. You are correct that sovereigns dont often default. What they do is they stop paying interest for a few years. They hold your capital regardless of what protections you think you have on paper - pari passu cross default etc., while they restructure and then they ask you to take a haircut. Great. 17% is for pros who manage a large portfolio of debt along a well understood risk/reward curve. The 17% 3 month bonds would be at the riskier end and would be only a few % of the total. Admittedly I dont really understand why an individual investor would be interested in a three month bond anyway. Commissions, transaction fees, custodial fees etc. would make anything less than about 500k USD not workable. I think you would need to be a professional investor or a very high rolling and experienced individual managing at least a $10mil bond portfolio. In that case, the ins and outs of repatriation would not be an issue.
 
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Simply in Egypt, inflation rate went up to 30% yoy on average last year. The government would be very happy to borrow at 17%. Under this circumstance, the artificially sticky EGP/USD exchange rate creates the arbitrage opportunity of the yield difference (ah, but the camel guy...)
Until a devaluation becomes unavoidable. Which it will. At 30% inflation, it will have to happen. Then somone blinks and the sell off starts. Your bond price will drop by 50% in minutes and there will be absolutely nothing you can do about it. You probably will not even be able to sell at a 50% loss. Your broker will be dealiing with the guy who holds $30mil., not you. How much will you be holding? And if you hold to maturity, you will not get paid. Why do you think you would? If your repayment was so strongly protected, why would the lender need to pay 17%? Everyone would buy it! At 17% the risk of you losing you capital is close to 100% over a 5 year period. It is 17% over a 12 month period. That is how the market works. Risk - Reward.
 
What they do is they stop paying interest for a few years.

That's the example of a credit event that can trigger a cross-default, and a bond issuer cannot selectively failing payments (pari passu). If they stop paying interest for a few years, that country has no place in international capital markets. I can recall only one example - Argentine some 10 years ago.

The 17% 3 month bonds would be at the riskier end and would be only a few % of the total. Admittedly I dont really understand why an individual investor would be interested in a three month bond anyway. Commissions, transaction fees, custodial fees etc. would make anything less than about 500k USD not workable.

The obvious risk is liquidity. Although 3-months seem to be the most liquid, you need to hold papers till the maturity. The most of T-bills are held by the Central Bank, financed by commercial banks' excess reserves deposited in the central bank (ah, just like the Fed, actually...) and the proxy to actual yield gains to a retail investor would be close to EGP savings deposit interest rate - which stands at 13% with HSBC Egypt. It still sounds decent if only HSBC Egypt accepts non-resident clients.

Until a devaluation becomes unavoidable. Which it will. At 30% inflation, it will have to happen. Then somone blinks and the sell off starts.

The hyper-inflation is a result of a massive devaluation in November 2016. Yes, another devaluation is inevitable but with the record-high foreign reserves they won't do it this year. So, the arbitrage opportunity is there this year until the foreign reserves start declining. An artificially high exchange rate eats up foreign reserves sooner or later, but a devaluation decision is usually late for political reasons in Egypt.

Btw, I will not put my assets exposed naked to foreign exchange risk more than a year. Egypt is a very special case for this year - maybe in my dream.
 
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That's the example of a credit event that can trigger a cross-default, and a bond issuer cannot selectively failing payments (pari passu). If they stop paying interest for a few years, that country has no place in international capital markets. I can recall only one example - Argentine some 10 years ago.



The obvious risk is liquidity. Although 3-months seem to be the most liquid, you need to hold papers till the maturity. The most of T-bills are held by the Central Bank, financed by commercial banks' excess reserves deposited in the central bank (ah, just like the Fed, actually...) and the proxy to actual yield gains to a retail investor would be close to EGP savings deposit interest rate - which stands at 13% with HSBC Egypt. It still sounds decent if only HSBC Egypt accepts non-resident clients.



The hyper-inflation is a result of a massive devaluation in November 2016. Yes, another devaluation is inevitable but with the record-high foreign reserves they won't do it this year. So, the arbitrage opportunity is there this year until the foreign reserves start declining. An artificially high exchange rate eats up foreign reserves sooner or later, but a devaluation decision is usually late for political reasons in Egypt.

Btw, I will not put my assets exposed naked to foreign exchange risk more than a year. Egypt is a very special case for this year - maybe in my dream.
The currency has moved up and down in a roughly 10% band vs JPY in the past year. What is a special case about that? You have a 10% forex risk, no? Buy the time you pay all of your spreads, fees, custodian fees, and whatever else they squeeze you for, you are very likely to lose money.
 
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Btw, I will not put my assets exposed naked to foreign exchange risk more than a year. Egypt is a very special case for this year - maybe in my dream.

Pardon my ignorance, what did you mean by "exposed naked"? No hedge?
 
The currency has moved up and down in a roughly 10% band vs JPY in the past year. What is a special case about that? You have a 10% forex risk, no? Buy the time you pay all of your spreads, fees, custodian fees, and whatever else they squeeze you for, you are very likely to lose money.

Ah, sorry, I was talking in USD. Many currencies are pegged to USD officially and unofficially. EGP is still "softly pegged" to USD though it has been "floated" since November 2016. This is the main difference from Turkish Lira where TRY has been depreciating continuously, reflecting the difference in inflation rate between the US and Turkey.

Again the reason I thought EGP T-bills looked attractive was that there was an arbitrage opportunity opened up by the artificial setting of EGP/USD exchange rate. If the exchange rate was moving like TRY, there would be no good investment opportunity for EGP T-bills.
 
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Ah, sorry, I was talking in USD. Many currencies are pegged to USD officially and unofficially. EGP is still "softly pegged" to USD though it has been "floated" since November 2016. This is the main difference from Turkish Lira where TRY has been depreciating continuously, reflecting the difference in inflation rate between the US and Turkey.

Again the reason I thought EGP T-bills looked attractive was that there was an arbitrage opportunity opened up by the artificial setting of EGP/USD exchange rate. If the exchange rate was moving like TRY, there would be no good investment opportunity for EGP T-bills.
You can call it soft or pegged or whatever you want to call it. The fact is that it has moved in a band of about 10% in the past year. It has also moved much more violently than that if you go back a few years. If you are OK with that and you still like the investment, then fine. But don’t try to say that there is no currency risk. Call it devaluation or depreciation, the result is the same. Interesting that you mention Turkey, because they have defaulted on their sovereign debt. So has Greece. A lot of very savvy inverstors lost fortunes. Now explain to me why Egypt is different. I’m all ears.
 
In a way yes, but it's more on liquidity. If you purchase, say, a 5-year EGP treasury bond, you cannot sell it until the bond matures.
There is no secondary market for EGP t bills? I didn’t know that. Not that I care.
 
You can call it soft or pegged or whatever you want to call it. The fact is that it has moved in a band of about 10% in the past year. It has also moved much more violently than that if you go back a few years. If you are OK with that and you still like the investment, then fine. But don’t try to say that there is no currency risk. Call it devaluation or depreciation, the result is the same. Interesting that you mention Turkey, because they have defaulted on their sovereign debt. So has Greece. A lot of very savvy inverstors lost fortunes. Now explain to me why Egypt is different. I’m all ears.

So be it, sir. Have a nice day. :)
 
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You cannot in your right mind legitimately recommend to a non professional private investor to dabble in the international emerging bond market.
 
You cannot in your right mind legitimately recommend to a non professional private investor to dabble in the international emerging bond market.
Exactly. But our guy here is a real pro....
 
Thanks for the information. Time to plan a trip to Egypt.
On another note, for a professional trader (stock/forex/options/day/crypto), is there a reason to hold position in fixed income with a meaningful % of asset? May be currency diversification?
 
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You cannot in your right mind legitimately recommend to a non professional private investor to dabble in the international emerging bond market.

Well, I guess if you take investment advice from an anonymous forum build for perverts I think you deserve everything you get. :p

I was once drinking with a guy who turned out to be a professional currency trader in one of the big companies here in Tokyo and I jokingly asked him if yen is going to go up or down against the dollar next.

He deadpanned "anyone in our company who gets that right 50% of the time is considered to be a guru".
 
Thanks for the information. Time to plan a trip to Egypt.
On another note, for a professional trader (stock/forex/options/day/crypto), is there a reason to hold position in fixed income with a meaningful % of asset? May be currency diversification?
A professional trader doesn’t get the answer to that question on the “internet for perverts”
 
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Well, I guess if you take investment advice from an anonymous forum build for perverts I think you deserve everything you get. :p

I was once drinking with a guy who turned out to be a professional currency trader in one of the big companies here in Tokyo and I jokingly asked him if yen is going to go up or down against the dollar next.

He deadpanned "anyone in our company who gets that right 50% of the time is considered to be a guru".
And the guy who gets it right 51% of the time over any significant period of time does not exist or he would have all the money in the world.