What are the chances that...

[Keihan]

Japan reopens to international tourism next year? Just curious as to what those of you actually living in Japan think. January? Spring? Summer? Never?

As a safety measure, I went ahead and purchased my airline tickets to Japan scheduled for mid-March. Now, I'm not terribly optimistic that the country will be open by then, but my regular airlines is charging no date-change fees and, more importantly, with fuel prices surging stateside (Let's Go Brandon) and a noticeable uptick in Japanese tourists booking flights here for the new year, RT fares to NRT/HND have been skyrocketing recently.

I used to pay $550-$650 RT (not including my seat upgrades) to HND. Two months ago those same routes were $800. When they hit $900 I gave in and booked flights. Friends are now telling me basic coach for next year is in the $1200-$1500 range. It's fucking insane.

There definitely seems to be pent-up desire amongst Japanese for a vacation here and elsewhere stateside. I'm also beginning to see a lot of Japanese clients returning to town and contacting me to make arrangements/accommodations for their employees to return. There's definitely the sense that Japanese are preparing at least somewhat of a return to normalcy.

But then you folks in Tokyo are clocking, what, a dozen new infections a day? Meanwhile, cases are steadily increasing here stateside, particularly up in the northern blue states where they previously enjoyed a very low infection rate, mostly thanks to high vaccination rates and very low numbers of shit-kicking, sister-fucking MAGA hat anti-vaxxers. And Thanksgiving and Xmas are just around the corner. If I were Japanese and looking at America's numbers, I certainly wouldn't want us back in the country yet. Or ever.

It's OK. I've long since gotten used to not even hoping to take vacations. And not taking my usual 3-4 trips to Japan each year for almost two years has saved me a shit-ton of money. If the Japanese government decides to continue to deny me entry, maybe I'll make some sort of symbolic protest gesture and blow all my play money on something really stupid. Maybe buy myself a Rolex for each wrist. Or trade in my SUV for that new Toyota Supra, in yellow. Or maybe I'll buy myself a pet Ostrich and try riding her to work. In any event, I'll look really cool when my other half murders me.

 

[Frenchy]

Japan reopens to international tourism next year? Just curious as to what those of you actually living in Japan think. January? Spring? Summer? Never?

As a safety measure, I went ahead and purchased my airline tickets to Japan scheduled for mid-March. Now, I'm not terribly optimistic that the country will be open by then, but my regular airlines is charging no date-change fees and, more importantly, with fuel prices surging stateside (Let's Go Brandon) and a noticeable uptick in Japanese tourists booking flights here for the new year, RT fares to NRT/HND have been skyrocketing recently.

I used to pay $550-$650 RT (not including my seat upgrades) to HND. Two months ago those same routes were $800. When they hit $900 I gave in and booked flights. Friends are now telling me basic coach for next year is in the $1200-$1500 range. It's fucking insane.

There definitely seems to be pent-up desire amongst Japanese for a vacation here and elsewhere stateside. I'm also beginning to see a lot of Japanese clients returning to town and contacting me to make arrangements/accommodations for their employees to return. There's definitely the sense that Japanese are preparing at least somewhat of a return to normalcy.

But then you folks in Tokyo are clocking, what, a dozen new infections a day? Meanwhile, cases are steadily increasing here stateside, particularly up in the northern blue states where they previously enjoyed a very low infection rate, mostly thanks to high vaccination rates and very low numbers of shit-kicking, sister-fucking MAGA hat anti-vaxxers. And Thanksgiving and Xmas are just around the corner. If I were Japanese and looking at America's numbers, I certainly wouldn't want us back in the country yet. Or ever.

It's OK. I've long since gotten used to not even hoping to take vacations. And not taking my usual 3-4 trips to Japan each year for almost two years has saved me a shit-ton of money. If the Japanese government decides to continue to deny me entry, maybe I'll make some sort of symbolic protest gesture and blow all my play money on something really stupid. Maybe buy myself a Rolex for each wrist. Or trade in my SUV for that new Toyota Supra, in yellow. Or maybe I'll buy myself a pet Ostrich and try riding her to work. In any event, I'll look really cool when my other half murders me.

your guess is as good as ours
Lets face it Japan doesn’t really need foreign tourism , its peanuts in their GDP
Maybe Kyoto and Niseko and some Ginza shops suffer , maybe Okinawa too (they are closer to Taiwan and China) but thats about it
And in other places Mr Watanabe and Ms Suzuki, long time LDP voters, are quite happy to see less stinky , rude, dumb gaijins strolling and soiling their sacred country

 

[Durg50]

As they are trialing limited business travel from january, really depends on the success of that. If there is a spike in infections, the business travellers will get the blame and that means no tourism for s long time. If it goes well, id guess summer japan may start to reopen

 

[Ken1988]

RT fares to NRT/HND have been skyrocketing recently

The fuel cost is rising, and there is a daily entry cap of 3500 passengers to Japan right now (reportedly to be increased to 5000 per day in December). Airlines can sell their seats only a fraction of the full capacity.

 

[SugoiBoy]

your guess is as good as ours
Lets face it Japan doesn’t really need foreign tourism , its peanuts in their GDP
Maybe Kyoto and Niseko and some Ginza shops suffer , maybe Okinawa too (they are closer to Taiwan and China) but thats about it
And in other places Mr Watanabe and Ms Suzuki, long time LDP voters, are quite happy to see less stinky , rude, dumb gaijins strolling and soiling their sacred country

Yeah, Japan isn’t Thailand.

 

[Frenchy]

Yeah, Japan isn’t Thailand.

yes , and that may be a good thing for @Keihan come to think of it.

Japan doesn’t need tourists but needs cheap labor. So I would suggest he applies to be a farm laborer or convenience store clerk or mechanic, whatever. Given his pedigree and he can already speak some Nihongo he should have no issue getting a visa. Then once arrived here he does wtf he wants of course.

Voila! Uncle Frenchy’s ideas are brilliant once again.
Also he could enter the Guinness book of record as being the first tourist posing as a migrant, not the other way round

 

[Keihan]

And in other places Mr Watanabe and Ms Suzuki, long time LDP voters, are quite happy to see less stinky , rude, dumb gaijins strolling and soiling their sacred country

That may be, but since I now have to put up with hordes of fat, classless, disgusting American tourists, the Japanese should have to shoulder part of the burden. It's only fair. The bright side is that the holidays are almost here and with that comes the usual holiday pricing increases. Hopefully that scales back the level of redneck trash we've been receiving all year.

 

[Keihan]

yes , and that may be a good thing for @Keihan come to think of it.

Japan doesn’t need tourists but needs cheap labor. So I would suggest he applies to be a farm laborer or convenience store clerk or mechanic, whatever. Given his pedigree and he can already speak some Nihongo he should have no issue getting a visa. Then once arrived here he does wtf he wants of course.

Voila! Uncle Frenchy’s ideas are brilliant once again.
Also he could enter the Guinness book of record as being the first tourist posing as a migrant, not the other way round

My other half actually suggested I go apply for a spouse visa so I can accompany her to Japan for a vacation. However, I remember when I boarded that one-way flight out of KIX many years ago and surrendered my gaijin card to the immigration staff I vowed I would never, ever, ever, ever, ever become a resident of Japan again. But recently that visa idea has been sounding better and better. Maybe I could get a job as a talent scout at Libe, auditioning all the new young hopefuls.

Reminds me of a situation I had last year, when the pandemic was ripping through the states but Japan was still doing relatively well. I had a client here who was married to a Japanese girl, and he and his wife decided it was safer to move to Japan. And of course, him being a fucking dipshit loser who was obsessed with all things Japanese but had never actually been to Japan, he could barely contain himself. He seriously would not shut the fuck up about it. OH MY GOD...BLA BLA BLA...I'M GOING TO JAPAN...BLA BLA BLA...IT'S GONNA BE AWESOME...BLA BLA BLA. So finally I give in and ask him where in Japan he's planning to live?

IBARAKI.

I wished him well and didn't say another word again. I hope that jerkoff is enjoying life, playing with his dick in some rural field somewhere in a town where Family Mart is probably the action hub.

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Sorry @Frenchy but gotta disagree with you on Japan not needing foreign tourists.
Prior to Covid inbound tourism was increasing at a phenomenal rate. There was a prediction that foreign guest nights would overtake Japanese guests nights at hotels across Japan in 2022-23.

But back to the OP’s question.

I can’t see anything open before spring at the every earliest. With GOTO scheduled to restart in Feb and run thru golden week, they are not gonna open til then as they won’t want the foreign tourists using the program. Until Goto is a thing of the past, I don’t think they are gonna let foreigners in.

 

[Frenchy]

Sorry @Frenchy but gotta disagree with you on Japan not needing foreign tourists.
Prior to Covid inbound tourism was increasing at a phenomenal rate. There was a prediction that foreign guest nights would overtake Japanese guests nights at hotels across Japan in 2022-23.

But back to the OP’s question.

I can’t see anything open before spring at the every earliest. With GOTO scheduled to restart in Feb and run thru golden week, they are not gonna open til then as they won’t want the foreign tourists using the program. Until Goto is a thing of the past, I don’t think they are gonna let foreigners in.

i’d say it’s a “nice to have” for the economy of course, and yes it was one of the few fast growing sectors, but certainly not as vital as what it is in Thailand or Spain etc

 

[MikeH]

i’d say it’s a “nice to have” for the economy of course, and yes it was one of the few fast growing sectors, but certainly not as vital as what it is in Thailand or Spain etc

It must be the lack of water buffaloes. Thailand is in desperate need of medicine for them which only foreigners can provide.

 

[TAG Manager]

Japan reopens to international tourism next year? Just curious as to what those of you actually living in Japan think. January? Spring? Summer? Never?

I'm betting that we may not see normal tourism until 2023. While I personally hope that the country will be more open come Summer 2022, I just don't have a whole lot confidence that it will happen.

 

[Frenchy]

It must be the lack of water buffaloes. Thailand is in desperate need of medicine for them which only foreigners can provide.

yes. And in Spain it’s crappy (microwaved) paella restaurants and even crappier bars/nightclubs which only Brit/German/Dutch fat asses seem eager to frequent.

 

[Ken1988]

Actually, Japan has not suspended the visa waiver program with the US and Canada. There soon will be some dodgy "sponsoring firms" to arrange everything for vaccinated American/Canadian tourists business people to travel around Japan.

 

[hundreddollarman]

As they are trialing limited business travel from january, really depends on the success of that.

Well, I plan on traveling to Japan for business. And my business is sampling the beauties on offer. (Ha, I wish)

 

[Keihan]

I can’t see anything open before spring at the every earliest. With GOTO scheduled to restart in Feb and run thru golden week, they are not gonna open til then as they won’t want the foreign tourists using the program. Until Goto is a thing of the past, I don’t think they are gonna let foreigners in.

That's a pretty good point. I hadn't thought of that. I'm unfortunately with you and @TAG Manager on this one--I don't think there's going to be any significant re-opening to tourism until at least the coming Summer, and that's under the best case scenario with stateside vaccination rates pushed up into the 80s and new infections dropping to far, far lower than they are now and most certainly the not with spikes we're currently seeing up north and projected to see throughout the country after the Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings.

Of course, the other scenario is that with waning vaccine efficacy pretty much everywhere in the world and lagging booster shots, the infection rates spike again everywhere this coming Winter...but then the Merck and Pfizer antiviral pills turn out to be extremely effective and are authorized in most major countries. I suppose at that point, if the international community can just accept COVID as endemic and embrace a standardized vax/pill regimen then the day might arrive where COVID really does become just another inconvenience like the flu, and most countries just say FUCK IT and get on with life.

I keep going back to that article I read last year which stated that no pandemic in recorded history has ever lasted longer than two years. Looks like we're about to break records again.

 

[Sudsy]

I keep going back to that article I read last year which stated that no pandemic in recorded history has ever lasted longer than two years.

The Black Death lasted 7-8 years.

 

[Keihan]

The Black Death lasted 7-8 years.

I'm no history scholar but wasn't The Black Death more like a recurring series of geographic outbreaks that kept coming back mostly outside of the Americas over the span of several hundred years? Seriously, though, we shouldn't talk about it and jinx ourselves. COVID already turned me into a neurotic mess. One pandemic is enough for this lifetime.

 

[Keihan]

Like this gem from CNN. Gotta love these assholes, just when I thought I might one day be able to put away my masks and Clorox wipes.

A flu pandemic could be even worse than Covid-19 has been, National Academy of Medicine says

 

[Sudsy]

I'm no history scholar but wasn't The Black Death more like a recurring series of geographic outbreaks that kept coming back mostly outside of the Americas over the span of several hundred years?

The main outbreak ranged from Asia through Europe and North Africa, and lasted a little over 7 years (1346 to 1353). There were small regional outbreaks of plague for decades afterwards though.

 

[MikeH]

Of course, the other scenario is that with waning vaccine efficacy pretty much everywhere in the world and lagging booster shots, the infection rates spike again everywhere this coming Winter...

It's funny how the media now concentrates on the number of infections as the deaths don't pile up so nicely for them as they did before the vaccinations.

The latest numbers from the US of A show that even if you get infected after two vaccinations your risk of death is 0.015%. And the median age of those who die then is around 85. Which is pretty much an age where you die if you get any kind of infection and fever, including normal flu.

I guess you have to keep the headlines clickable or the people don't come back for your articles.

 

[Frenchy]

It's funny how the media now concentrates on the number of infections as the deaths don't pile up so nicely for them as they did before the vaccinations.

The latest numbers from the US of A show that even if you get infected after two vaccinations your risk of death is 0.015%. And the median age of those who die then is around 85. Which is pretty much an age where you die if you get any kind of infection and fever, including normal flu.

I guess you have to keep the headlines clickable or the people don't come back for your articles.

you have to grant that to Japan authorities and media: they were always consistent in keeping infections as the #1 indicator. Of course you may argue it’s not the most relevant nor even properly measured etc… but at least there is less confusion between various data and no moving of the goalposts

 

[Keihan]

I guess you have to keep the headlines clickable or the people don't come back for your articles.

Absolutely, hence that CNN link. People just aren't dying like they were pre-vaccines and the media need to keep people clicking. That's why I kinda give the Japan Times online editors a little bit of credit--recently, the "daily infection" story is buried under just about every other daily story, if even reported at all.

But at the same time, the Japanese government is going to use those infection counts in the U.S. and elsewhere as justification for staying closed off. Not that I blame them. If it's just an excuse to keep obnoxious foreigners out for a few more months, I say go in peace and enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[SugoiBoy]

My other half actually suggested I go apply for a spouse visa so I can accompany her to Japan for a vacation. However, I remember when I boarded that one-way flight out of KIX many years ago and surrendered my gaijin card to the immigration staff I vowed I would never, ever, ever, ever, ever become a resident of Japan again. But recently that visa idea has been sounding better and better. Maybe I could get a job as a talent scout at Libe, auditioning all the new young hopefuls.

Reminds me of a situation I had last year, when the pandemic was ripping through the states but Japan was still doing relatively well. I had a client here who was married to a Japanese girl, and he and his wife decided it was safer to move to Japan. And of course, him being a fucking dipshit loser who was obsessed with all things Japanese but had never actually been to Japan, he could barely contain himself. He seriously would not shut the fuck up about it. OH MY GOD...BLA BLA BLA...I'M GOING TO JAPAN...BLA BLA BLA...IT'S GONNA BE AWESOME...BLA BLA BLA. So finally I give in and ask him where in Japan he's planning to live?

IBARAKI.

I wished him well and didn't say another word again. I hope that jerkoff is enjoying life, playing with his dick in some rural field somewhere in a town where Family Mart is probably the action hub.

Maybe he’ll learn how to plant rice.

 

[Keihan]

Did anyone else read that article in the Japan Times recently trying to explain the shockingly low infection counts in Japan? According to some Japanese research group, the Delta variant essentially killed itself off by mutating too often to be sustainable. Perhaps Delta infected so many Japanese that it took on some inherent Japanese characteristics, among them being that classic Yamato love of committing suicide for any given reason. You'll the know the theory is true of you start seeing Delta molesting little girls on trains, dressing like women and not being able to speak English.