In case anyone in Japan is interested, since it looks like you folks are really hitting your omicron stride, what's happening here should draw a pretty decent picture of what's going to happen to you folks over the next month.
It looks like the South African model (six weeks to peak then drastic drop off) is definitely holding up here. Health officials predicted in December that we should likely hit our peak on 1/19. The omicron surge began at the beginning of December, and at almost exactly 6 1/2 weeks we peaked at around 6500 cases per day. Since then, and over the past four or five days, numbers have been falling drastically, 5k one day, 4.5k next, 3.5k next and today we clocked in at just over 3k.
What I've also noticed--since I've been testing multiple times per week to try to confirm a COVID positive--is that at the state-run free PCR testing sites and on online registration, demand for testing has dropped significantly. Two weeks ago testing was booked up two days in advance; today almost every location is wide open. Two weeks ago at the main test facility, I had to wait in a line of about forty people and it took about fifteen minutes to even get past the front gates, and that was with a reservation; on Friday I drove past and there wasn't even a line. What that suggests to me is that there are either far less suspected/symptomatic cases or, even more likely, people are beginning to give even less-of-a-shit about omicron as the vast, vast majority of vaccinated people catching it are reporting the same, uninspiring symptoms: sore throat, minor cough.
What I would suggest to all of you, however, is be very cautious about your PCR results and absolutely retest. I now have two clear examples among relatives of how early PCR tests can definitely miss.
Clearest case was among relatives living in a multi-generational setting with grandpa, parents and baby all dealing with a three-week COVID adventure. Day 1, grandpa tests positive at the PCR facility. Parents and baby freak out and on Day 2 all three get tested. On Day 3 all three test negative. On Day 7 the baby is running a 102F fever and both parents are beginning to exhibit cold-like symptoms, so all three get tested again. On Day 8 they get their results, that baby is positive but parents are negative. Doctors advise them to wait three more days and test again. The baby's fever subsides within 48 hours. On Day 12, who are experiencing strong cold-like symptoms, finally test positive. They are told to all stay isolated for at least another week.
So it looks like Grandpa brought the virus home and having close contact with baby often, spread it to baby, who then spread it to parents, but the whole process was a couple weeks long. So if you're experiencing symptoms, shoot down to the PCR facility and test negative, don't take that as being truly negative. Get tested again three days later and I'd get tested a couple days later again just to be safe.
