U.S. 2024 Presidential Election Season kicking off...so who are you betting on??

[Keihan]

Biden is a nice guy and really has accomplished a lot in his term, but he does not project power or confidence on camera. Fortunately his opponent will be Trump meaning a bigger win in November than four years ago cause people hate Trump that much. Sorry, but a big reason Trump won in 2016 is that many people hated Hillary Clinton including among Democrats. There's just not that sort of hate when it comes to Biden and Trump far exceeds it.

This basically illustrates how little you understand about campaign politics in America, but I'm not saying that's a bad thing. I don't know if you're just in denial and writing this nonsense to make yourself feel better, but...

1) Hillary Clinton was almost universally supported amongst registered Democrats in 2016. She also gained the backroom, unethical and borderline-illegal backing of the DNC to the tune of millions of dollars by Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, who also engineered the undermining of the Bernie Sanders campaign to benefit Clinton.

2) Virtually every single poll taken in the last six months shows that 70%+ of registered Democrats do not want Biden to serve a second term. Two-thirds of registered voters in America say that illegal immigration is the biggest crisis we now face and overwhelmingly blame Biden for it.

3) Trump won because he was able to convince previously-unregistered voters (backwoods idiots) in Midwest and Rust Belt states to come out and vote for the first time in their lives. This is common fucking knowledge for anyone, ANYONE who knows ANYTHING about political history.

Biden is demented. Democrats and Americans in general are terrified about the prospect of him getting a second term. The majority of Americans are seriously concerned about the border crisis and, rightfully, blame Biden and his admin for it. The vast majority of Americans cannot fucking stand Trump, Republican or Democrat, but are being pushed to the point that they'd elect him out of desperation just to fix the absolute mess the country--and the rest of the world--is currently in.

But why argue? The General Election is only eight months away. Let's wait and see who's right.

 

[Keihan]

By the way, speaking about a bigger crime, what’s the only country that sent migrants to the US then attacked the US by surprise , on its own soil? Apart from wherever the 9/11 guys came from? Trump would have been in favor of Japanese internment camps in 1942 ya know , “this shit had to stop” 😉

Speaking as very likely the only person on TAG who had a relative (my grandfather) imprisoned in an American internment camp--who later went on to serve in the decorated MIS (the U.S. Army's military intelligence service) during WWII, interrogating Japanese POWs and assisting in the post-war occupation and rebuilding--and as an American who lived through 9/11, I can tell you I absolutely DO NOT blame FDR (Democrat), the American Congress or the American People for enacting E.O. 9066 and unconstitutionally sending Japanese Americans to prison. I questioned it for most of my youth until the morning of 9/11/2001 when I got to watch the towers collapse and then I understood what need for retribution felt like. I would've done the same thing.

And again speaking as likely the only person with blood relatives residing near the blast zone in Hiroshima, who I still get forced to visit every once in a while, I absolutely support the atomic bombing of Japan and believe it saved millions of Japanese lives, as well as tens of thousands of American lives, and if history were to repeat itself I'd vote to drop those bombs again, any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

This is what Europeans and, frankly, the rest of the world that relies on America's might for security, simply cannot comprehend. I don't place my ethnic identity before my nationality. I'm an American first and nothing else matters. That's been our universal strength for the past two centuries and while this current generation of dickless fucking coward millennials and the leftist social warrior movement, aided by the MSM, may succeed in finally destroying what's always made us strong, that's why not a single nation or entity on earth has been able to conquer us since our founding.

So, YES, "this shit has to stop."

 

[qcryp]

The majority of Americans are seriously concerned about the border crisis and, rightfully, blame Biden and his admin for it. The vast majority of Americans cannot fucking stand Trump, Republican or Democrat, but are being pushed to the point that they'd elect him out of desperation just to fix the absolute mess the country--and the rest of the world--is currently in.

I think you vastly over estimate the amount of people who actually care about this. Policy doesn't matter people will vote based on their opinion of Trump.

 

[Keihan]

I think you vastly over estimate the amount of people who actually care about this. Policy doesn't matter people will vote based on their opinion of Trump.

Again, I'm a former DC political operative and I still have access to DNC/RNC internal polling data through old friends, and that's what I base my opinions on. I do not, ever, overestimate (or underestimate) anything, because that's how you lose your job and future jobs when you're a kid in this game. Does it truly count, at the end of the day? No. All reliable polling showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump, until just before the general election. But the stark difference in the 2024 build-up is that every poll and every metric is showing that the vast majority of Americans DO NOT want Joe Biden to serve a second term, and well before the November showdown and even well before the caucuses. No incumbent POTUS with his current approval ratings in the history of commercial polling (roughly 60 years) has ever been re-elected.

Joe Biden is not going to be re-elected. Who is? Who knows? But at this point I'm laying my bets on Trump.

 

[Frenchy]

Speaking as very likely the only person on TAG who had a relative (my grandfather) imprisoned in an American internment camp--who later went on to serve in the decorated MIS (the U.S. Army's military intelligence service) during WWII, interrogating Japanese POWs and assisting in the post-war occupation and rebuilding--and as an American who lived through 9/11, I can tell you I absolutely DO NOT blame FDR (Democrat), the American Congress or the American People for enacting E.O. 9066 and unconstitutionally sending Japanese Americans to prison. I questioned it for most of my youth until the morning of 9/11/2001 when I got to watch the towers collapse and then I understood what need for retribution felt like. I would've done the same thing.

And again speaking as likely the only person with blood relatives residing near the blast zone in Hiroshima, who I still get forced to visit every once in a while, I absolutely support the atomic bombing of Japan and believe it saved millions of Japanese lives, as well as tens of thousands of American lives, and if history were to repeat itself I'd vote to drop those bombs again, any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

This is what Europeans and, frankly, the rest of the world that relies on America's might for security, simply cannot comprehend. I don't place my ethnic identity before my nationality. I'm an American first and nothing else matters. That's been our universal strength for the past two centuries and while this current generation of dickless fucking coward millennials and the leftist social warrior movement, aided by the MSM, may succeed in finally destroying what's always made us strong, that's why not a single nation or entity on earth has been able to conquer us since our founding.

So, YES, "this shit has to stop."

Keihan riding on his high horse again 😀
Following your way of thinking I guess it would have been totally legit for Native Americans to incarcerate the European colons then…

Funny you didn’t answer the first part of my answer … why the fuck is Trump blocking now a stricter border legislation drafted by the GOP if there is such an emergency to do something?

 

[fireman]

I think you vastly over estimate the amount of people who actually care about this. Policy doesn't matter people will vote based on their opinion of Trump.

Most Trump voters are voting against the left -- whatever they think it stands for -- not for Trump the person. Most of them dislike Trump as an individual, but they see him as a means to an end: deporting the Mexicans, banning abortion and contraception, converting the gays and trannies, or whatever their depraved mental image of America's real problems might be.

 

[Tabanico]

The 9/11 retribution post has to be a parody, right?

 

[Keihan]

Keihan riding on his high horse again 😀
Following your way of thinking I guess it would have been totally legit for Native Americans to incarcerate the European colons then…

Funny you didn’t answer the first part of my answer … why the fuck is Trump blocking now a stricter border legislation drafted by the GOP if there is such an emergency to do something?

Sucks when you get TRUMP'D, huh?

BTW, not sure if you're aware of this, but Donald Trump is not President, not an elected official, not even an aide in Congress. Donald Trump cannot "block" anything. Not sure how it works in France, but private, unelected citizens don't get to "block" any legislative processes in the U.S.

And for the record, I would have been 100% in favor of Native Americans opposing, fighting against, incarcerating and, if need be, killing invading colonists.

OOPS...try again?

 

[Frenchy]

Sucks when you get TRUMP'D, huh?

BTW, not sure if you're aware of this, but Donald Trump is not President, not an elected official, not even an aide in Congress. Donald Trump cannot "block" anything. Not sure how it works in France, but private, unelected citizens don't get to "block" any legislative processes in the U.S.

And for the record, I would have been 100% in favor of Native Americans opposing, fighting against, incarcerating and, if need be, killing invading colonists.

OOPS...try again?

Dont play dumber than you are
Trump is calling his pals in Congress to make sure this legislation is not passed , and it works, because
1. He wants to whine about immigration, not actually solve it. Gotta be his own little turf since on the economy Biden is actually doing much better than he predicted
2. GOP zombies are afraid of displeasing the don

 

[Keihan]

Dont play dumber than you are
Trump is calling his pals in Congress to make sure this legislation is not passed , and it works, because
1. He wants to whine about immigration, not actually solve it. Gotta be his own little turf since on the economy Biden is actually doing much better than he predicted
2. GOP zombies are afraid of displeasing the don

It is what it is. In eight months we'll see who was right.

 

[Frenchy]

It is what it is. In eight months we'll see who was right.

But right now we see at least that you have zero logic
All your posts above are so non-sensical and conflicting from one assertion to the next that I can’t help wondering how you function in your daily life and business… but yeah, lets see
Given your “GOP operative” track record as soon as you wrote about Haley’s chances I knew she had none. As soon as you wrote in Nov 2020 that you went to bed certain that Trump had won , I knew he lost

 

[fireman]

It ain't over until it's over. Right now the national polls are leaning toward Trump, but well within the margin of error, and we still have six months to go, in which time all kinds of new shit may come to light.

Clinton was winning all of the national polls on election day and she lost by many electoral votes, thanks to razor-thin margins for Trump in the three states of PA, WI, and MI. If Trump came in one percentage point lower in those three states, the electoral vote would have been a Clinton landslide. That's the stupid reality of how US presidents are elected (well, not quite as stupid as the 2000 election).

The biggest factor in the result will not be how anyone feels about the candidates -- everyone has a pretty strong opinion by now -- but it will be how motivated people on each side are to vote. That will largely depend on how the two sides proceed over the next few months.

And if either Biden or Trump kicks the bucket along the way, which is statistically very possible, all bets are off.

I am just glad to be watching this dumpster fire from far far away.

 

[Keihan]

But right now we see at least that you have zero logic
All your posts above are so non-sensical and conflicting from one assertion to the next that I can’t help wondering how you function in your daily life and business… but yeah, lets see
Given your “GOP operative” track record as soon as you wrote about Haley’s chances I knew she had none. As soon as you wrote in Nov 2020 that you went to bed certain that Trump had won , I knew he lost

Yawn.

 

[Frenchy]

It ain't over until it's over. Right now the national polls are leaning toward Trump, but well within the margin of error, and we still have six months to go, in which time all kinds of new shit may come to light.

Clinton was winning all of the national polls on election day and she lost by many electoral votes, thanks to razor-thin margins for Trump in the three states of PA, WI, and MI. If Trump came in one percentage point lower in those three states, the electoral vote would have been a Clinton landslide. That's the stupid reality of how US presidents are elected (well, not quite as stupid as the 2000 election).

The biggest factor in the result will not be how anyone feels about the candidates -- everyone has a pretty strong opinion by now -- but it will be how motivated people on each side are to vote. That will largely depend on how the two sides proceed over the next few months.

And if either Biden or Trump kicks the bucket along the way, which is statistically very possible, all bets are off.

I am just glad to be watching this dumpster fire from far far away.

Agreed. No denying that Trump has a good chance to win again. After all who doesn’t want a known rapist, conman, election denier and Putin fanboy as President?

But if he wins it will be again not because a majority of Americans want him to, just because a few thousands in a few swing states wanted to.

Happy to look at that from far far away as well, in a country where the Prez, to represent all of us, should at least gather more votes than his opponent. Weird concept, I know…

 

[Keihan]

It ain't over until it's over. Right now the national polls are leaning toward Trump, but well within the margin of error, and we still have six months to go, in which time all kinds of new shit may come to light.

Clinton was winning all of the national polls on election day and she lost by many electoral votes, thanks to razor-thin margins for Trump in the three states of PA, WI, and MI. If Trump came in one percentage point lower in those three states, the electoral vote would have been a Clinton landslide. That's the stupid reality of how US presidents are elected (well, not quite as stupid as the 2000 election).

The biggest factor in the result will not be how anyone feels about the candidates -- everyone has a pretty strong opinion by now -- but it will be how motivated people on each side are to vote. That will largely depend on how the two sides proceed over the next few months.

And if either Biden or Trump kicks the bucket along the way, which is statistically very possible, all bets are off.

I am just glad to be watching this dumpster fire from far far away.

At least you, unlike @Frenchy, have a more-or-less realistic perspective of what's going to happen this year. Don't mind him. He's been suffering from TDS for years. And don't mind me. I'm just here for the entertainment.

 

[Frenchy]

At least you, unlike @Frenchy, have a more-or-less realistic perspective of what's going to happen this year. Don't mind him. He's been suffering from TDS for years. And don't mind me. I'm just here for the entertainment.

I like your new posts, more concise, less bullshit

 

[Keihan]

I like your new posts, more concise, less bullshit

You love my posts. They are why you don't need Viagra.

 

[Frenchy]

You love my posts. They are why you don't need Viagra.

Sadly I don’t need Viagra now but for other reasons

 

[Alice]

But what are your thoughts on Madame Web

Yes, what do we think? Ever since Fifty Shades of Grey, Dakota Johnson has won my heart.

 

[YokoMonger]

But if he wins it will be again not because a majority of Americans want him to, just because a few thousands in a few swing states wanted to.

This. That one braggart contradicts him/herself by saying "National polling said something (that it didn't say) in 2016" then acts like they have inside info from "access to internal polling". Polling is wrong and he/she has access to it ... wow. Clinton had an 85% chance to win in 2016 due to a tight results in swing states. That's like saying she'd only lose if she rolled a 1 on a six sided dice. Not amazing odds and Clinton was fucking hated by a small number of Democrats and independents unlike what the braggart likes to wax poetically about.

Biden won by 80,000 votes across a few states. He likely will do better this time, but it's not a lock and still comes down to swing states. Trump though still has criminal trials (at the state level at least), and getting fucked on his civil trials. These won't sway voters all that much but it distracts Trump making him desperate for more money and plundering the RNC resources (even attempting direct route) which messes over down ballot candidates.

If it can down to money though, my retirement account dropped $90,000 under Trump even before COVID and raised $150,000 under Biden. Just that alone (and it's not) would have me voting Biden again. The number of migrants don't bother me enough to switch votes to the guy that wants dick all done about it in the hopes it'll help his election.

 

[Frenchy]

This. That one braggart contradicts him/herself by saying "National polling said something (that it didn't say) in 2016" then acts like they have inside info from "access to internal polling". Polling is wrong and he/she has access to it ... wow. Clinton had an 85% chance to win in 2016 due to a tight results in swing states. That's like saying she'd only lose if she rolled a 1 on a six sided dice. Not amazing odds and Clinton was fucking hated by a small number of Democrats and independents unlike what the braggart likes to wax poetically about.

Biden won by 80,000 votes across a few states. He likely will do better this time, but it's not a lock and still comes down to swing states. Trump though still has criminal trials (at the state level at least), and getting fucked on his civil trials. These won't sway voters all that much but it distracts Trump making him desperate for more money and plundering the RNC resources (even attempting direct route) which messes over down ballot candidates.

If it can down to money though, my retirement account dropped $90,000 under Trump even before COVID and raised $150,000 under Biden. Just that alone (and it's not) would have me voting Biden again. The number of migrants don't bother me enough to switch votes to the guy that wants dick all done about it in the hopes it'll help his election.

Thanks for being an American voice of sanity here! (As our dear braggart cleverly and repeatedly noticed I am not, which should in his mind disquality me to post here although he also wrote elsewhere he wanted me to post here , but hey being schizoid is not a crime)
By the way we have some issues but I’m quite sure he’s a “he”. 😄

Okay I don’t vote in the US but I invest there so yes I see what you mean. Its the same Bush Jr / Obama thing again : when nepo-baby 1 quitted under well-deserved booing the economy was melting down, and recovered afterwards. Not to say it’s especially because of Obama but I was happy I started to invest at that time.

Now to please the braggart I actually have a selfish interest in illegal immigration not getting out of hands: recently I switched a lot to REITs , both residential and commercial. Some seem unfairly beaten up to me (I may be wrong of course)

So yeah I’m not thrilled at the perspective of US real-estate losing value because of that. We’re not there yet (it lost value because of higher interest rates and post-Covid new lifestyles). But it could. So why the fuck those no-balls GOP elected officials accept the diktats of Orange Man to basically do NOTHING until next Feb?!

 

[Sudsy]

I'm a former DC political operative and I still have access to DNC/RNC internal polling data through old friends

This is a card you love to play, but it's honestly meaningless unless you can back it up with proof.

the stark difference in the 2024 build-up is that every poll and every metric is showing that the vast majority of Americans DO NOT want Joe Biden to serve a second term, and well before the November showdown and even well before the caucuses. No incumbent POTUS with his current approval ratings in the history of commercial polling (roughly 60 years) has ever been re-elected.

Reuters shows him at a 58% disapproval rating with a +/- 5% margin of error right now.

If we're going to look at the last 60 years, the incumbent

Kennedy - assassinated (30% disapproval, and obviously 100% disapproval with one particular guy...)
Johnson- re-elected (12% disapproval pre election)
Nixon - re-elected then impeached (32% disapproval pre election)
Ford - one term (35% disapproval pre election)
Carter - One term (58% disapproval pre election)
Reagan - re-elected (55% disapproval pre election)
Bush 41 - One term (60% disapproval pre election)
Clinton - re-elected (48% disapproval pre election)
Bush 43 - re-elected (52% disapproval pre election)
Obama - re-elected (52% disapproval pre election)
Trump - one term (62% disapproval pre election)

So... that puts him within the same window as Reagan, who was re-elected.

What's also interesting is that Trump holds the dubious honor of holding the highest disapproval rating in a first term of any president in the last 60 years. And is only beat out by post-Watergate Nixon for overall disapprovals.

Data from https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/

 

[Tabanico]

Yes, what do we think? Ever since Fifty Shades of Grey, Dakota Johnson has won my heart.

(It's terrible, if that helps!)

 

[Frenchy]

This is a card you love to play, but it's honestly meaningless unless you can back it up with proof.


Reuters shows him at a 58% disapproval rating with a +/- 5% margin of error right now.

If we're going to look at the last 60 years, the incumbent

Kennedy - assassinated (30% disapproval, and obviously 100% disapproval with one particular guy...)
Johnson- re-elected (12% disapproval pre election)
Nixon - re-elected then impeached (32% disapproval pre election)
Ford - one term (35% disapproval pre election)
Carter - One term (58% disapproval pre election)
Reagan - re-elected (55% disapproval pre election)
Bush 41 - One term (60% disapproval pre election)
Clinton - re-elected (48% disapproval pre election)
Bush 43 - re-elected (52% disapproval pre election)
Obama - re-elected (52% disapproval pre election)
Trump - one term (62% disapproval pre election)

So... that puts him within the same window as Reagan, who was re-elected.

What's also interesting is that Trump holds the dubious honor of holding the highest disapproval rating in a first term of any president in the last 60 years. And is only beat out by post-Watergate Nixon for overall disapprovals.

Data from https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/

Bringing actual data to this thread , with mentioned sources , a refreshing approach… thanks Sud!

 

[SquidCity]

If Trump came in one percentage point lower in those three states, the electoral vote would have been a Clinton landslide. That's the stupid reality of how US presidents are elected (well, not quite as stupid as the 2000 election).

Now that you mention it, can y'all please make Electoral College at least proportional and not winner-take-all? I've heard the arguments for EC "otherwise coastal cities can vote out the flyover states", but it never makes sense to me that the election is basically who can win the states that just happens to have roughly equal Dems and Reps