Driverless Cars

[Exnocomment]

Despite having a 2nd or 3rd row seat to the "driverless car revolution" even I am a bit shocked at how quickly it seems to be picking up speed currently vs. historical technological adoption rates. It may still need to "crash and burn" through another economic cycle before it becomes ubiquitous but it really is only a matter of time!

So has anyone else tried it? Thoughts? For most major cities it will never replace mass transit due to the "rush hour conundrum" but it does look to be a wonderful solution to the "last mile" problem:

http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2016/09/automation-to-solve-last-mile-problem/

 

[phil3k]

Despite having a 2nd or 3rd row seat to the "driverless car revolution" even I am a bit shocked at how quickly it seems to be picking up speed currently vs. historical technological adoption rates. It may still need to "crash and burn" through another economic cycle before it becomes ubiquitous but it really is only a matter of time!

So has anyone else tried it? Thoughts? For most major cities it will never replace mass transit due to the "rush hour conundrum" but it does look to be a wonderful solution to the "last mile" problem:

http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2016/09/automation-to-solve-last-mile-problem/

It's still years away. The technology is almost there but the regulatory hurdles are tremendous. Who's liable in a crash? The manufacturer or the driver/operator? In the event that an accident is unavoidable, who does the car protect first? The driver? Passengers? The occupants of the other car(s) and/or pedestrians? What's the driver/manufacturer's liability if it's determined the car sacrificed the occupants of the other car to preserve the driver/passengers? Or vice versa? Trust me, I know these things, I'm a robot in real life. See my avatar!

 

[meiji]

Driverless trucks are probably coming in the next 3-5 years. Driving at a standard speed on the highway is a much easier problem to solve than driving in traffic.

Most of the wireless solutions require a whole lot more data before they can go into real production. Google's self-driving cars, for example, only drive in a subset of the SF Bay Area that's been fully mapped.

I think the biggest issue with self-driving cars is the human element. When you offer people the ability to release control, they'll either fully release control (and read, nap, fuck their girlfriend in the backseat, etc) and won't be able to take control if something happens to the car, or they will assume control at the worst possible time. See this video of automated car 'traffic control' and imagine how many people going through an intersection might hit the override button and slam on the brakes.

The general problem with all the puff pieces on self-driving cars is that everyone considers them a panacea. It's going to make traffic worse. Maybe self-driving buses will improve things, though.

 

[Exnocomment]

Driverless trucks are probably coming in the next 3-5 years. Driving at a standard speed on the highway is a much easier problem to solve than driving in traffic.

Most of the wireless solutions require a whole lot more data before they can go into real production. Google's self-driving cars, for example, only drive in a subset of the SF Bay Area that's been fully mapped.

I think the biggest issue with self-driving cars is the human element. When you offer people the ability to release control, they'll either fully release control (and read, nap, fuck their girlfriend in the backseat, etc) and won't be able to take control if something happens to the car, or they will assume control at the worst possible time. See this video of automated car 'traffic control' and imagine how many people going through an intersection might hit the override button and slam on the brakes.

The general problem with all the puff pieces on self-driving cars is that everyone considers them a panacea. It's going to make traffic worse. Maybe self-driving buses will improve things, though.

The article I posted suggests fixed or semi-fixed route shuttles will come much sooner. Then more industrial usage although the tech firms are chasing the massive potential market that is consumer vehicles.

The issue I agree is the long tail issue around "convergence" where numerous independently made automatic decisions result in a "flash crash" of sorts like what happened with algorithmic trading a few years back.

Having tried the Tesla auto-drive feature, I remain both impressed and unimpressed. It goes good in simple situations but complexity boggled it quite quickly!

 

[Wwanderer]

This will give "road rage" a whole new meaning!!

http://www.nola.com/science/index.ssf/2016/12/honda_concept_car_emotions.html

-Ww

 

[User#8628]

Maybe self-driving buses will improve things, though.

They would be on time for once maybe. And no grumpy drivers!

 

[TAG Manager]

Hopefully, I'll be too old to drive when this stuff is really mainstream.

This also goes hand-in-hand with general automation and elimination of the human element. In turn, that brings up the idea of 'standard income'.

If trucks go automated, fully, then that will put a lot of people out of work, followed by buses and more factories, farming and manufacturing.

 

[Exnocomment]

Hopefully, I'll be too old to drive when this stuff is really mainstream.

This also goes hand-in-hand with general automation and elimination of the human element. In turn, that brings up the idea of 'standard income'.

If trucks go automated, fully, then that will put a lot of people out of work, followed by buses and more factories, farming and manufacturing.

There would be a huge societal dislocation for sure.. But imagine the number of mechanics and engineers we'd need for all this stuff!

I do think it is very similar to free trade which generally makes things cheaper for everyone involved but definitely means jobs get lost in the meantime.. But it also means cheap tomatoes from Mexico, French techniques and cuisine in Japan and Chocolate from Belgium! Not to mention travel for vacation and work.

The latter part of the above raises the global talent pool, competition drives increasing standards, and unfortunately many folk while liking the benefits don't/can't/won't be able to compete.

Anyways, I do hope we get though it all okay, Amazon Prime Drone Delivery has begun. The future is now! (I'm not taking a driverless car to work just yet..)

 

[RoboReptar]

Funny enough the self driving Uber that ran a red light yesterday was actually overridden by the driver to do so!

http://fortune.com/2016/12/15/uber-self-driving-car-red-light/

Looks like computers are still smarter than us ha.

 

[Wwanderer]

unfortunately many folk while liking the benefits don't/can't/won't be able to compete.

Anyways, I do hope we get though it all okay, Amazon Prime Drone Delivery has begun. The future is now! (I'm not taking a driverless car to work just yet..)

This.

I have noticed that as most people get older they more and more strongly resist change; they want the future to be more like the past, not less. True to my contrarian nature, I'm the opposite. The more change I see, the more I love it...technology-driven change can't get here fast enough for me, the societal dislocations and general chaos it brings notwithstanding. In any case though, resistance is futile; a tsunami of technological revolutions is upon us.

-Ww

 

[Wwanderer]

It's still years away. The technology is almost there but the regulatory hurdles are tremendous....

See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Policy_implications

and particularly this figure:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auton...Self_Driving_Cars_Legalized_States_in_USA.png

for the current situation. I'm no expert but "years away" sounds more negative than justified to me. Note that many/most of the states shown in gray on that map do NOT prohibit driverless cars; they simply have no relevant laws at all on their books. So, it is more like "anything goes" in those places.

-Ww

 

[phil3k]

See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Policy_implications

and particularly this figure:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auton...Self_Driving_Cars_Legalized_States_in_USA.png

for the current situation. I'm no expert but "years away" sounds more negative than justified to me. Note that many/most of the states shown in gray on that map do NOT prohibit driverless cars; they simply have no relevant laws at all on their books. So, it is more like "anything goes" in those places.

-Ww

It's not the technological issues that need sorting, but the administrative issues. As I said, liability is the big issue that needs to be sorted. Amazon has been able to deliver a package via drone to your doorstep for years, but until the FAA establishes a regulatory environment that will allow the widespread use of drones (a drone hitting a low flying airliner would be the worst case scenario), it will remain science fiction (although I think we're almost there). The second a driverless car (or truck) is found liable in a lethal accident, without legal protection and regulations, a multimillion dollar award settlement will stop widespread adoption.

 

[Wwanderer]

It's not the technological issues that need sorting, but the administrative issues.

I agree with that statement, but I suspect that the legal/administrative issues will be resolved more rapidly than you anticipate. They will be pushed HARD by some major players with a lot of money to put into the effort.

The US may well lag behind other countries because traffic/vehicle regulations are state-by-state, so 50 (or at least 48) "battles" must be won before interstate travel by and marketing of driverless cars is practical. In most other countries, the relevant laws are national, so it is only one process/struggle to get the non-technological issues settled. Also, a "multimillion dollar award settlement" is not as likely in most countries as in the US. (I don't know if you are an American, but it is common for us to mistake the US for the world...not even close in reality.)

-Ww

 

[phil3k]

I agree with that statement, but I suspect that the legal/administrative issues will be resolved more rapidly than you anticipate. They will be pushed HARD by some major players with a lot of money to put into the effort.

The US may well lag behind other countries because traffic/vehicle regulations are state-by-state, so 50 (or at least 48) "battles" must be won before interstate travel by and marketing of driverless cars is practical. In most other countries, the relevant laws are national, so it is only one process/struggle to get the non-technological issues settled. Also, a "multimillion dollar award settlement" is not as likely in most countries as in the US. (I don't know if you are an American, but it is common for us to mistake the US for the world...not even close in reality.)

-Ww

I can't speak for other countries but I could see the process being streamlined somewhere else beside the US. However, the US is the most profitable car market in the world, and all the major developers of driverless vehicles that I know of (GM, Tesla, Apple, Google) are there. The goal (I would imagine) would be the roll-out in the US first. Again, until the administrative issues are addressed in the US, adoption will be slow (to nonexistent). Also, there could be political pressures to ban driverless vehicles. There are millions of truck, bus, and fleet drivers that will be unemployed once driverless vehicles are adopted. They could vote into office the politician that holds back the adoption of driverless vehicles, at least for a few years.

 

[Wwanderer]

However, the US is the most profitable car market in the world,...

I don't know about total profits, but if I recall correctly, for the first time in history gross car sales in 2015 in the US were #2 in the world; China was #1. I believe the US has moved back ahead in at least some months this year, but in any case, the two are now very close.

Just an aside...

-Ww

 

[Exnocomment]

It's not the technological issues that need sorting, but the administrative issues. As I said, liability is the big issue that needs to be sorted. Amazon has been able to deliver a package via drone to your doorstep for years, but until the FAA establishes a regulatory environment that will allow the widespread use of drones (a drone hitting a low flying airliner would be the worst case scenario), it will remain science fiction (although I think we're almost there). The second a driverless car (or truck) is found liable in a lethal accident, without legal protection and regulations, a multimillion dollar award settlement will stop widespread adoption.

Interestingly enough Amazon is delivering packages by drone in the rural U.K. already, I think on a trial basis, so automation and AI are coming. As I said in my original post, I'm a bit surprised at the pace of adoption, but for sure there will be some speed bumps along the way!

 

[phil3k]

I don't know about total profits, but if I recall correctly, for the first time in history gross car sales in 2015 in the US were #2 in the world; China was #1. I believe the US has moved back ahead in at least some months this year, but in any case, the two are now very close.

Just an aside...

-Ww

What was the profit per car vice the gross profit? What was the net profit? Those are more important financial numbers than gross profit.

 

[phil3k]

Interestingly enough Amazon is delivering packages by drone in the rural U.K. already, I think on a trial basis, so automation and AI are coming. As I said in my original post, I'm a bit surprised at the pace of adoption, but for sure there will be some speed bumps along the way!

The UK has a more efficient government that can streamline the adoption of new rules and regulations, compared to the US.

 

[static]

The singularity is getting closer!

Even in Japan, the current prediction is that taxi's will be 100% replaced within the next 10 years. Thing that'll be kinda nice though is when cars are all self-driving, accidents will be gone. Imagine if cars were constantly broadcasting their intent to other cars, as an example. There would never be a "misunderstanding" accident every again.

 

[Jbagz]

This.

I have noticed that as most people get older they more and more strongly resist change; they want the future to be more like the past, not less. True to my contrarian nature, I'm the opposite. The more change I see, the more I love it...technology-driven change can't get here fast enough for me, the societal dislocations and general chaos it brings notwithstanding. In any case though, resistance is futile; a tsunami of technological revolutions is upon us.

-Ww

I am so annoyed by people living in the past. In the US people continually bemoan the loss of manufacturing jobs.

Why? Most of those factory jobs were really crappy jobs, but people tend to forget that.

 

[Jbagz]

The singularity is getting closer!

Even in Japan, the current prediction is that taxi's will be 100% replaced within the next 10 years. Thing that'll be kinda nice though is when cars are all self-driving, accidents will be gone. Imagine if cars were constantly broadcasting their intent to other cars, as an example. There would never be a "misunderstanding" accident every again.

I think in 20 years it will change the concept of car ownership in most urban areas.

You won't buy a car any more, but subscribe to a car service a bit like Uber. I doubt you'll pay for single rides though. More like a flat monthly fee with a cap on the number of miles or rides.

 

[Exnocomment]

I already somewhat ascribe to some version of this as do many people that I know.

Car sharing services, uber and taxis are primarily the way I travel as an urbanite. A nice car is really naught but a toy.. a very pretty and nice toy but one nonetheless. Most NYC, London and Tokyo professionals that I've met are similar albeit those who are a bit more moneyed may have persona full time drivers.

 

[Wwanderer]

What was the profit per car vice the gross profit? What was the net profit? Those are more important financial numbers than gross profit.

What I quoted was gross sales, probably even less important, but I don't know the other numbers and am not interested enough to look them up. However, I think my basic point stands; the US is no longer the single dominant auto market in the world. Even if it remains #1 for a while, there is close competition, and it may well turn out not to be the first or most lucrative market for driverless cars. And while the companies you mention are located in the US in a technical sense, they are all global companies willing to go wherever profits lead them.

That said, I don't claim to know exactly how soon or where the driverless car revolution will come, but for sure it is coming, just like winter. Brace yourself!

-Ww