How high (or low) can the yen go?

[corgiesiao]

Honestly the best part about coming to Tokyo last December was the yen currency exchange 25% down compared to my last visit pre-pandemic 2019. Is there any chance by end of the year yen may hit back pre-pandemic highs? I really doubt BoJ is doing to continue their ultra dovish monetary policy all the way until end of the year anybody well versed in economics and forex can enlighten me?

 

[MikeH]

Honestly the best part about coming to Tokyo last December was the yen currency exchange 25% down compared to my last visit pre-pandemic 2019. Is there any chance by end of the year yen may hit back pre-pandemic highs? I really doubt BoJ is doing to continue their ultra dovish monetary policy all the way until end of the year anybody well versed in economics and forex can enlighten me?

Pretty much anyone here has enough knowledge to give you an answer; yes there is a chance yen may get to new highs.

Anyone who knows for any certainty how the yen is going to behave is too busy shopping for his fourth yacht to be able to answer here.

 

[Sudsy]

Honestly the best part about coming to Tokyo last December was the yen currency exchange 25% down compared to my last visit pre-pandemic 2019. Is there any chance by end of the year yen may hit back pre-pandemic highs? I really doubt BoJ is doing to continue their ultra dovish monetary policy all the way until end of the year anybody well versed in economics and forex can enlighten me?

Anyone who can answer that question is already so rich that they don't bother with TAG....

 

[Maxblack]

The macro view: the Japanese economy continues to under perform as its is seen as slow to recover into Post Corona with various mask “rules” and inbound restrictions, vs particularly Asian neighbors like China clearly embracing post Corona.
Combined with historically low birth rate, worker efficiency, and interest rates, Japan seems to continue the now three decades old systemic stagnation that it cannot middle its way out of.
Kishida seems as uninterested as all the previous PMs since Koizumi in actually affecting change, and though there is hope for a new BoJ governor come April, there really isn’t much to do other than raise rates and completely derail Japan’s already weak economy.
Too much savings, too much domestic debt held locally, too low wages, and nothing / no one to really challenge the status quo.
TLDR: long-term view is a weak yen.

 

[Doggyfong]

JPY IS expected to weaken, but so is USD.
Most countries that follows USD will feel that JPY is getting more expensive at times.
You really can't compare much this days.
USDJPY went up to IIRC, 145. Now its down to 130〜.
I was lucky to have bought it at a high before going to JP for my previous trip.
I'm not an expert, I just got lucky and gambled while doing research that JPY will reach the peak last September. After which it slowly strengthened back up to 130 in December.

My country follows USD very closely, so when USD falls, it falls too, hence it feels like its back to normal as of now.
I'm heading to Thailand soon, and the rates seems to follow as well. THB was cheaper sometime back in December, as of now it feels like it is strengtening even though its just USD tanking.
Maybe tanking isnt the proper word to use here...

Anyways, JPY and USD are both slowly weakening.
Depends on where you are from, it might be a good or a bad thing.

 

[TAG Manager]

The macro view: the Japanese economy continues to under perform as its is seen as slow to recover into Post Corona with various mask “rules” and inbound restrictions, vs particularly Asian neighbors like China clearly embracing post Corona.
Combined with historically low birth rate, worker efficiency, and interest rates, Japan seems to continue the now three decades old systemic stagnation that it cannot middle its way out of.
Kishida seems as uninterested as all the previous PMs since Koizumi in actually affecting change, and though there is hope for a new BoJ governor come April, there really isn’t much to do other than raise rates and completely derail Japan’s already weak economy.
Too much savings, too much domestic debt held locally, too low wages, and nothing / no one to really challenge the status quo.
TLDR: long-term view is a weak yen.

All of this is in the top reasons of why I want out of Japan. But, I’m kind of fucked until the usd weakens or the jpy gains more strength. Otherwise, I’ll take a big loss on FX when liquidating Japan assets to usd when I pull that ripcord. In the meantime, I’m attempting to build up assets back in the states when I can - but that’s sort of paused due to the weak yen…

 

[corgiesiao]

JPY IS expected to weaken, but so is USD.
Most countries that follows USD will feel that JPY is getting more expensive at times.
You really can't compare much this days.
USDJPY went up to IIRC, 145. Now its down to 130〜.
I was lucky to have bought it at a high before going to JP for my previous trip.
I'm not an expert, I just got lucky and gambled while doing research that JPY will reach the peak last September. After which it slowly strengthened back up to 130 in December.

My country follows USD very closely, so when USD falls, it falls too, hence it feels like its back to normal as of now.
I'm heading to Thailand soon, and the rates seems to follow as well. THB was cheaper sometime back in December, as of now it feels like it is strengtening even though its just USD tanking.
Maybe tanking isnt the proper word to use here...

Anyways, JPY and USD are both slowly weakening.
Depends on where you are from, it might be a good or a bad thing.

Weakening JPY = more dough for P4P

 

[Doggyfong]

Weakening JPY = more dough for P4P

Sort of? but not exactly? Can't really put it into the right terms.


I emphasized this alot(not here but with friends)
TLDR Hyper inflation.


As for most of the guys who are living in JP now will feel it is hitting hard,
Goods are becoming more expensive right down to the source is 1 way to put it.
Raw materials are more expensive due to yen becoming cheaper outside.
EG
Uniqlo buys raw material for lets say 100USD, converting it back to JPY it used to be around 10500JPY
It went up to 14500JPY, even though it is now 130000
Uniqlo increased the price of an item by 1000JPY. Even if USDJPY is to return to 105, Uniqlo will not drop prices back to normal. The prices are now stuck.

More dough for us to spend, but the price hike hits us outsiders back to square one.
As for those staying in JP, doubt their pay will go up by 50% to match the inflations.

 

[Alice]

Japan is the most desired tourist destination by now. Of course, being a tourist trap is how once great nations come to die, and maybe the yen will never completely bounce back. But it won’t get back to during pandemic lows either I think, if I were to bet I don’t believe that favorable exchange rate of 150 jpy to one dollar will come back soon if at all.
And I know that China brings in the big tourist money compared to more stingy countries, but they also apparently have a new variant of the virus going on so any extra precautions are understandable.

Another interesting thing is that Japan did not do that ridiculous hyper inflation as much as other countries, which may also make the yen objectively lower, but price hikes are happening steadily here too how (not in the p4p or in the salaries, sadly, rather the opposite).

So we’ll wait and see I guess. I feel like people are sleeping on this great country and writing us off too quickly. Yes Japan can be stubborn but also resilient on its own. We had a strange past couple of years and closing the country was a great mistake if you ask me, hard to recover from, but it’s been a strange couple of years for the whole world and hopefully things will get better and not worse from here.

 

[Ken1988]

I am bullish on JPY. Honestly, I lost a lot in May-June last year for my wrong belief that JPY would regain 110/$ quickly, but adjusted my positions and got a good recovery affter that. What happened last year was so-called "DXY bubble" where people speculated on DXY (US Dollar Index) like other cryptos. So many bought USD but they didn't buy in USD assets - shares down, bonds down, real estate down while USD up. They just parked their funds in US-account demand deposits for currency speculation, and now they are flowing out. The yield differential between JGB10Y and UST10Y is narrowing as US inflation has already passed the peak and Japan's will peak out in Jan-Feb. There is now little story for speculators to sell JPY, but there are plenty of them to buy JPY (incluidng YCC fiasco - and it's way easier to short on USD than short on JGB). I belive JPY will reach the 110-120/$ range in a few months.

 

[Ken4fb]

Anyone who can answer that question is already so rich that they don't bother with TAG....

This was my thought exactly when I was reading the title of this thread. Although I would probably be reading TAG reviews.

 

[shadowboxer]

All of this is in the top reasons of why I want out of Japan. But, I’m kind of fucked until the usd weakens or the jpy gains more strength. Otherwise, I’ll take a big loss on FX when liquidating Japan assets to usd when I pull that ripcord. In the meantime, I’m attempting to build up assets back in the states when I can - but that’s sort of paused due to the weak yen…

Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past

Even the Brits earn more!

 

[Alice]

Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past

Even the Brits earn more!

You see this article everywhere nowadays, lol.

Like Europe isn’t stuck in the past. I have seen west European countries that did not want to install certain measurements during the pandemic been described as “dying welfare states” in an article. I did not necessarily agree with the sentiment of the article but that description was spot on imo. Europe may be further in the ways of digital money, but that’s not all its hyped up to me imo, because it just means the authorities can track your every move (except maybe for the special digital currencies). Also most things are done with bank card in Europe and Japan is more revolutionary in things like PayPay, which is owned by China, though, make of that what you will.
Also it’s easier to digitize everything government related in smaller countries with less citizens.

Higher salaries do not per se mean the country is better off in general. Japan had deflation for many years so it wasn’t a problem to not increase the salaries. We will see what happens now the Inflation is hitting hard here.
And higher salaries don’t mean that the country is automatically better off. No point if other people have a high salary but you can’t find a job.

If it’s up to me, Japan should stay as much as it is and not change at all. I cry every time a quirky old building gets torn down and replaced by a generic sky scraper.
Plus there are ways in which Japan will always beat other countries out of the ball park even if they don’t catch up with the most modern techniques. I was recently talking to someone about the difference between driving in Japan and Switzerland and they said Japan puts mirrors on corners on mountain roads and Switzerland does not. You would think they tax people enough there to be able to put up some mirrors? Lol. It’s this type of attentiveness and convenience that will always make Japan a force to be reckoned with.

The west also loves to say Japan’s laws and politics are outdated, but don’t forget it’s an Asian country. Asia is notorious for trying to look conservative but not enforcing things at all and letting people party and enjoy themselves.

 

[Danbo]

You see this article everywhere nowadays, lol.

Like Europe isn’t stuck in the past. I have seen west European countries that did not want to install certain measurements during the pandemic been described as “dying welfare states” in an article. I did not necessarily agree with the sentiment of the article but that description was spot on imo. Europe may be further in the ways of digital money, but that’s not all its hyped up to me imo, because it just means the authorities can track your every move (except maybe for the special digital currencies). Also most things are done with bank card in Europe and Japan is more revolutionary in things like PayPay, which is owned by China, though, make of that what you will.
Also it’s easier to digitize everything government related in smaller countries with less citizens.

Higher salaries do not per se mean the country is better off in general. Japan had deflation for many years so it wasn’t a problem to not increase the salaries. We will see what happens now the Inflation is hitting hard here.
And higher salaries don’t mean that the country is automatically better off. No point if other people have a high salary but you can’t find a job.

If it’s up to me, Japan should stay as much as it is and not change at all. I cry every time a quirky old building gets torn down and replaced by a generic sky scraper.
Plus there are ways in which Japan will always beat other countries out of the ball park even if they don’t catch up with the most modern techniques. I was recently talking to someone about the difference between driving in Japan and Switzerland and they said Japan puts mirrors on corners on mountain roads and Switzerland does not. You would think they tax people enough there to be able to put up some mirrors? Lol. It’s this type of attentiveness and convenience that will always make Japan a force to be reckoned with.

The west also loves to say Japan’s laws and politics are outdated, but don’t forget it’s an Asian country. Asia is notorious for trying to look conservative but not enforcing things at all and letting people party and enjoy themselves.

Yeah, I completely agree....but these stupid articles exist for every country. I am from Germany and German Angst is kinda everywhere......you can read weekly articles why Germany is on the brink of becoming the next third world country because everything is going to shit.

Of course some things in Japan go fucking wrong or are outdated, but you can find examples for that everywhere. On the other hand some thing work better here then everywhere else in the world.
Stagnant salaries are a problem, but if everything is kinda stagnant it is not too bad........in Germany salaries probably went up a lot more the past years, but inflation is a lot worse, housing market in bigger cities is exploding. In most western countries there is a trend that more and more people every year are sliding into poverty because of super unequal wealth distribution. This is of course also a problem in Japan, but by far not as bad as in Europa and I think we don't have to talk about the US when it comes to that issue 😅

Population collapse and super low birth rates are of course a huge issue in Japan, but all highly developed countries have exactly the same problem. Some try to stuff the holes with lots of immigration, but that causes other problems instead. A shrinking society is a huge deal and will lead to a financial collapse, but humanity as a whole has to tackle this problem....all hightech-nations will shrink because less and less people for simple tasks are needed and we have to rethink capitalism to a certain degree. With lesser people around profits can't continue to grow every year, we have to find ways to restructure society in a way that capitalism works even if the amount of consumers shrinks. There is simply no way around it.

 

[Alice]

Germany is on the brink of becoming the next third world country

That would be very bad given that Germany is the leader of the EU and one of the most succesful European countries.

Totally agree, dropping birth rate is basically happening everywhere and immigration causes it’s own problems.

Also the West shouldn’t act like they are politically more evolved just because the hippies passed some open minded laws back in the days. Most countries are run by right wing liberals who don’t really do much groundbreaking and who try to keep the rich rich nowadays anyway.

 

[MrDuBois]

I saw that article a few days ago and am losing my fucking mind. It's such a low-effort, cliché shit article that makes me realise that some people actually get paid for writing such hogwash. There are no real arguments in it and the writer unironically brings up manhole covers as an "argument" for how wasteful Japan uses its money. Bah. A few years ago, everyone everywhere raved on and praised Japan to the high heavens, disregarding that it has problems like every other country but in the past 2-3, that has completely flipped and everybody seems to be an expert on how Japan is actually a bad place and will collapse and blablabla.

Really getting tired of it.

And yeah, as a German, I love to complain about Germany but the angsty stuff being put out lately is a bit much. Perhaps the pandemic has made people really fucking terrified of the future or something for everything being so negative.

 

[Alice]

manhole covers

That’s just crazy. Those things bring people so much joy. I know of people who love to collect photos of all the different ones. This kind of attention to detail and making the mundane and ugly things beautiful is precisely what makes Japan so good and what got them high praise a few years ago like you said.

Perhaps the pandemic has made people really fucking terrified of the future or something for everything being so negative.

Yeah, people are really over dramatic nowadays. All this “society is collapsing and the world is ending stuff. People thought that in the ‘60s and the ‘80s as well but instead of cowering in fear, they partied like there was no tomorrow. Wish we could start doing that too already.

 

[MrDuBois]

To be fair - I am not really all too optimistic about the future either, way too many huge problems that are already affecting the planet and will affect me personally for (potentially, who knows - maybe someone runs me over with a car tomorrow) 30+ years but not EVERYTHING in life is shit.

 

[Danbo]

To be fair - I am not really all too optimistic about the future either, way too many huge problems that are already affecting the planet and will affect me personally for (potentially, who knows - maybe someone runs me over with a car tomorrow) 30+ years but not EVERYTHING in life is shit.

Of course there are a lot of problems ahead of us, but humans are good at solving problems, especially if shit hits the fan. We had a light pandemic, a few international tension ontop and people talk about it like it is the end of times without any future...

Around 100 years ago there was a pretty deadly pandemic, great depression and 2 world wars in pretty short succession...world still kept on spinning and after all this absolutely horrendous shit humanity globally developed in a very positive way. It's quite incredible.

 

[MrDuBois]

This isn't the right forum to discuss such stuff and yeah, a 100 years ago the stuff that was happening affected people immediately but most of them were "momentary". Climate change is something that is here to stay and while humans may be great at "solving problems", they are also pretty fucking useless at actually taking action and doing something about a thing they can't truly grasp the consquences of. And this light pandemic also proved how fucking braindead a lot of people are. Remember just how many people had a problem with wearing a piece of fabric in front of their faces to potentially save lives. We got the blueprint for a pandemic and most countries fucked up dealing with it.

Doesn't exactly inspire confidence but I also do not think about that too much because otherwise I'd be even more depressed than I already am!

 

[Maxblack]

Best / worst I’ve seen is 84 and 150 I think. Good times.