U.S. 2024 Presidential Election Season kicking off...so who are you betting on??

With all due respect, I have a somewhat differentiated view. With two parties A and B, it seems the people stick with one party, not because they want to vote for that party's program, but because they do not want to vote for the other party.
So to me it seems that extremism and lack of compromise results from having only two parties. It seems that effectively having two parties is having a two party dictatorship, one step away from having a one-party dictatorship.

With three parties, assuming on one party has an absolute majority, parties are forced to form alliances and make compromises in order to make a workable government. Those alliances can then be shifting. Then the party becomes less of a central focus, but the party program moves into focus.
 
With all due respect, I have a somewhat differentiated view. With two parties A and B, it seems the people stick with one party, not because they want to vote for that party's program, but because they do not want to vote for the other party.
This is the thing about US politics in general. Well, it certainly happens over here in Germany too but not to the extent it does in the US.

People in the US treat politics and how they vote as if it was some sports competition. They pick team A or B and stick with that team until they fucking die. It's not about which party would be the better choice based on evaluation of their policies and whether they'd improve the life of the person voting, it's all about sticking it to the other side and being able to say "Haha, damn commies!" afterwards...
 
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People in the US treat politics and how they vote as if it was some sports competition. They pick team A or B and stick with that team until they fucking die. It's not about which party would be the better choice based on evaluation of their policies and whether they'd improve the life of the person voting, it's all about sticking it to the other side and being able to say "Haha, damn commies!" afterwards...

That is a categorically false and ignorant statement, and the past two presidencies are obvious proof of that. The election of Barack Obama saw a record number of independent and Republican voters switching sides to vote Democrat; likewise, the election of Donald Trump saw a record number of working-class independent, historically Democratic or previously-unregistered voters going Republican for the first time in their lives. Trump also caused one of the largest shifts in history of registered Republican voters choosing third-party (Libertarian/Green) candidates.

If you have opinions, state them as opinions. Otherwise, you end up looking like a fucking moron.
 
With all due respect, I have a somewhat differentiated view. With two parties A and B, it seems the people stick with one party, not because they want to vote for that party's program, but because they do not want to vote for the other party.
So to me it seems that extremism and lack of compromise results from having only two parties. It seems that effectively having two parties is having a two party dictatorship, one step away from having a one-party dictatorship.

With three parties, assuming on one party has an absolute majority, parties are forced to form alliances and make compromises in order to make a workable government. Those alliances can then be shifting. Then the party becomes less of a central focus, but the party program moves into focus.

I'm absolutely not opposed to third parties, and have voted as such in the past--most notably in 2016, when I voted for that retard pothead Gary Johnson just because I refused to reward Trump with my vote after he buttfucked the entire 2016 electoral process.

That said, third parties in American politics have, historically, always served as nothing more than a spoiler or bargaining chip in major elections. The perfect example would be Perot's vengeance tour that cost GHWB his second term. Call it a flaw of the American mindset but we're a two-party country. In most coastal states or major cities that indeed does lead to a dictatorial political dynamic--in most cases, that's an all-powerful Democratic political machine governing the state--but people are content to live with because it's comfortable. The foundation of the modern American political campaign model is based on DEM vs REP, and people don't like change. For my purposes, I like it just as it is (but minus Trump).

On that note, this morning the Trump team of attorneys announced that the Justice Department has named DJT as the target of an investigation into his handling of the classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. In other words, that likely means Trump has received what is known as a "target letter" from the DOJ. If you aren't familiar with the process, that means the DOJ has basically wrapped up the investigation, charges are being prepared (or already prepared) and he is almost certain to be indicted.

All I'm waiting for now is the announcement that Liz Cheney jumps in the mix.
 
This coming Tuesday is going to be interesting.
 
In case you missed it, Trump announced today that he has been indicted by the DOJ...followed by his usual tirade about everything being a "hoax," bla bla bla. His cheerleaders at Fox News are declaring that Joe Biden just fucked himself because now the entire country will rally behind Trump, hand him the GOP nomination and then surely the White House again.

I'm guessing the goal for both sides is to convict and sentence to probation as quickly as possible, permanently removing him from eligibility? Who knows...will have to wait and see what the 7-count indictment is all about.
 
In case you missed it, Trump announced today that he has been indicted by the DOJ...followed by his usual tirade about everything being a "hoax," bla bla bla. His cheerleaders at Fox News are declaring that Joe Biden just fucked himself because now the entire country will rally behind Trump, hand him the GOP nomination and then surely the White House again.

I'm guessing the goal for both sides is to convict and sentence to probation as quickly as possible, permanently removing him from eligibility? Who knows...will have to wait and see what the 7-count indictment is all about.
Could be up to 10 years in Prison which I doubt he'll get. Lots of other goodies coming Donnies way too. He can't just get probation for all he's done. That would make him above the law
 
Could be up to 10 years in Prison which I doubt he'll get. Lots of other goodies coming Donnies way too. He can't just get probation for all he's done. That would make him above the law

This situation is without modern precedent so it's anybody's guess what happens if/when it ends in conviction, but I'd wager a bet that he gets probation. My guess would be that a federal judge would recognize the potential damage and negative impact that throwing a former POTUS in prison could have on the country--riots by his followers, being on example. The real goal here, by everyone involved, is to prevent him from becoming President again and get him out of the election.

A conviction with probation is the lowest-risk outcome if you want Trump gone. He's not getting any actual punishment, which should keep his faithful from raising hell and burning down government buildings. And then by law he's not allowed to hold office again so there's nothing really to bitch about--he simply can't run, end of story. He'll appeal it six ways to Sunday but that's a years-long process and he'll be well into his 80s and President Keihan will be serving his second term in office by the time any ruling comes.

But again, better we just wait and see exactly what sort of shitstorm The Donald has coming his way.
 
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This situation is without modern precedent so it's anybody's guess what happens if/when it ends in conviction, but I'd wager a bet that he gets probation. My guess would be that a federal judge would recognize the potential damage and negative impact that throwing a former POTUS in prison could have on the country--riots by his followers, being on example. The real goal here, by everyone involved, is to prevent him from becoming President again and get him out of the election.

A conviction with probation is the lowest-risk outcome if you want Trump gone. He's not getting any actual punishment, which should keep his faithful from raising hell and burning down government buildings. And then by law he's not allowed to hold office again so there's nothing really to bitch about--he simply can't run, end of story. He'll appeal it six ways to Sunday but that's a years-long process and he'll be well into his 80s and President Keihan will be serving his second term in office by the time any ruling comes.

But again, better we just wait and see exactly what sort of shitstorm The Donald has coming his way.
Just a complete and total self-own. Everything stemmed from Donnie's inability to shut the fuck up. The national archives realized his Kim Jong Un love letter was missing (and only then because he talked about it so much), which led to realizing other documents were missing, then the few returned turned out to be high classification which involved the FBI. Then turns out he was withholding and hiding documents which made it a simple to prove/convict obstruction of justice. Trump could have turned over the documents then fight in the courts that they were his just like Nixon pulled off, but no. Literally his own worst enemy. Yeah, turns out there were witnesses that led to the raid (which was only public because Trump made it public) but even those stemmed from Trump causing this stupid thing to steamroll.

All of this is not about taking the documents or if they were or weren't classified (easy to argue as president, Trump could take any and all documents regardless of classification). It was all Trump's actions after the fact while he was no longer president that will fuck him. All a self-own with his own mouth.

I just wish Republicans would grow a pair of balls and fucking kick Trump out of their party. Instead, they're fucking cowards afraid of their own base so they hope and pray the legal system will save them from their own monster of their own making. Won't matter because Trump is not going to stop campaigning. The money is too good, and there's that ever dwindling chance he'll win like in 2016 and all of this goes away for him.
 
I just wish Republicans would grow a pair of balls and fucking kick Trump out of their party. Instead, they're fucking cowards afraid of their own base so they hope and pray the legal system will save them from their own monster of their own making. Won't matter because Trump is not going to stop campaigning. The money is too good, and there's that ever dwindling chance he'll win like in 2016 and all of this goes away for him.

Well, they won't. And regardless, it wouldn't be enough to kick out just Trump--the GOP needs to remove all of the nutjobs that Trump attracted to the party, whether they be volunteers, party officials or elected officials. Believe me, that's why myself and a whole lot of former GOP operatives are now former GOP operatives. It's just not a sustainable situation with fucking lunatics like these in the party.

But, it is what it is. They can't kick Trump out or he'll simply start his own third party and throw Biden/Democrats the win in 2024. Anyone who doubts this doesn't understand how insanely vindictive Trump is, and I, unfortunately, have some personal experience with this. He's a sociopath, but he's also a genius showman and that's dangerous.

To be honest, if he's going to be involved in the 2024 race then it's almost certain that the GOP will lose, but before that happens, it's going to be fucking hilarious watching the debates. Really, watching him emasculate Jeb Bush on live TV was one of the most hilarious things I've seen in this lifetime. And Jeb was a very successful governor from a political dynasty who speaks Spanish! I can only imagine what Trump can do to JV-level douchebags like Asa Hutchinson.

But really, if Trump makes it to the debate stage again it's going to be interesting watching this awkward dynamic of a whole cast of his former supporters and subordinates having to pretend they weren't tickling his balls and singing is praises just a few short years ago. And that's really where a candidate like Liz Cheney may have an opening if she runs a smart campaign, as she's basically the only one who can honestly claim she's hated him and called him an asshole from the very start.
 
One of the things about the very long US election season (compared to those of any other Western democracy) is that the American media focuses on countless stories about primaries, caucuses, etc. while largely ignoring certain other things going on in the world today such as the civil war in Myanmar.

It’s cheaper and safer to cover US elections than, say, a foreign war especially one outside of Europe. Presumably, that is one of the reasons why the typical American citizen knows so little about the world.

Then there is the quality of the reporting on US elections. Much of it is superficial, horse-race style coverage. How much meaningful information do average voters really get about the candidates and their policy ideas. The political campaigns themselves are often focused on branding. Image over substance.

At times the coverage also reminds me of the celebrity gossip stories that help to distract people from the many serious issues facing the country. The lines between entertainment and news were blurred decades ago.
 
Well, they won't. And regardless, it wouldn't be enough to kick out just Trump--the GOP needs to remove all of the nutjobs that Trump attracted to the party, whether they be volunteers, party officials or elected officials. Believe me, that's why myself and a whole lot of former GOP operatives are now former GOP operatives. It's just not a sustainable situation with fucking lunatics like these in the party.

But, it is what it is. They can't kick Trump out or he'll simply start his own third party and throw Biden/Democrats the win in 2024. Anyone who doubts this doesn't understand how insanely vindictive Trump is, and I, unfortunately, have some personal experience with this. He's a sociopath, but he's also a genius showman and that's dangerous.

To be honest, if he's going to be involved in the 2024 race then it's almost certain that the GOP will lose, but before that happens, it's going to be fucking hilarious watching the debates. Really, watching him emasculate Jeb Bush on live TV was one of the most hilarious things I've seen in this lifetime. And Jeb was a very successful governor from a political dynasty who speaks Spanish! I can only imagine what Trump can do to JV-level douchebags like Asa Hutchinson.

But really, if Trump makes it to the debate stage again it's going to be interesting watching this awkward dynamic of a whole cast of his former supporters and subordinates having to pretend they weren't tickling his balls and singing is praises just a few short years ago. And that's really where a candidate like Liz Cheney may have an opening if she runs a smart campaign, as she's basically the only one who can honestly claim she's hated him and called him an asshole from the very start.
Reading this has made me believe I might vote for a Republican once in my lifetime. Cheney has been an interesting character and she ticks the boxes of an overwhelming number of voters who straddle the thinly veiled middle road.

As always, thank you for your insights, @Keihan

BANZAI TENNOU HEIKA
 
I seriously doubt that Trump will get into any actual legal trouble that would prevent him from running in 2024, that alone would make his supports riot in the streets. I doubt that any federal judge would have the balls to do it.
 
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In fact, I'd say Cheney is even worse in some regards than Trump (she was fully cheering on the Iraq war and would still be a bigger warmonger than Trump). Most Republicans (and Democrats for that matter also) are cut from the same cloth and still serve the same special/moneyed interests. The only thing that's different about them is the culture war bullshit.
 
One way or another I feel like I gotta vote this time around. Despite her political leanings it’s so much her appearance that makes her look middle road.

Privileged to be white
Not privileged to be a woman
Privileged to have had an education
Not privileged to be Dick’s daughter (fucker can’t even shoot birds without almost offing himself)

I’d rather vote for her than a man who could die falling up the stairs in the near future. Seriously, this time I don’t see anything out of the blue worth fighting for.
 
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Reading this has made me believe I might vote for a Republican once in my lifetime. Cheney has been an interesting character and she ticks the boxes of an overwhelming number of voters who straddle the thinly veiled middle road.

As always, thank you for your insights, @Keihan

BANZAI TENNOU HEIKA

Well, again, it might not come down to that, if you're that averse to voting for an R. Like I said, if the intel that I'm getting is correct and Biden's own VP and Transportation Secretary are plotting campaigns to replace him, it's very likely the DNC has already decided it won't allow him to run for a second term. But then again, the real issue for the Dems is a lack of nurtured talent in the bullpen, and what your other voting options might be. Kamala Harris? She can run again but she won't even come close. Same with Mayor Pete. Both have a glaring record of failing miserably at chasing the nomination and that was before they actually held executive positions, revealed themselves to be entirely useless and their public image has since gone to absolute shit.

Contrast that with Jr. Senator Obama's debut at the Democratic Convention in 2004. The second he finished his speech, he was basically inaugurated. A monolithic machine appeared almost overnight and millions of dollars in donations started pouring in and this was nearly four years before the election--enough that he could build a credible campaign apparatus and put up a credible fight against Hillary, who was never particularly liked by anyone around her in the first place. But even Hillary was a force to be reckoned with, as ruthless and power-hungry as she was/is. She wasn't a great candidate because she's a horrible person but she was certainly a brilliant operator, as she gleefully bullied the DNC into torching Bernie Sanders, who was immensely popular and probably could've beaten Trump.

At this point it's basically too late to start grooming a new unknown horse, and that's why Michelle Obama's name keeps coming up in desperate whispers. The Dems have no other prepared candidate that can excite or even mildly interest the American public, and even if they did it would be unseemly and not tolerated to launch a campaign now against an incumbent POTUS in the same party, as much as that would make sense. Likewise, the GOP has a perpetual problem child polling first and then an entire cast of flunkies that nobody knows or nobody may want to trust as almost all of them swore loyalty to the problem child they're now trying to beat.

It really is a wait-and-see situation. We're 14 months away from the 2024 primaries so there's still wiggle-room. Again, my guess is that before this Summer is over or possibly in Fall (or ASAP, if they're smart), Biden's team is going to fabricate some sort of bullshit medical issue story and announce that he won't run for a second term. That'll give ambitious Dems a chance to quickly jockey for a shot at the debate stage. Same thing on the GOP side. although with a very different dynamic, all depending on whether or not Trump is disqualified from running by then.

But I will be watching Liz Cheney, as well as Adam Kinzinger, both of whom were basically forced out of office by the GOP for being prominent GOP Never-Trumpers. Might get interesting.
 
I seriously doubt that Trump will get into any actual legal trouble that would prevent him from running in 2024, that alone would make his supports riot in the streets. I doubt that any federal judge would have the balls to do it.
I've got plenty of popcorn ready.
 
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I bet you do Sir! 😀

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I like Trump I hope he wins. But God knows best.

When he talks it makes sense, he is sticking up for something and like him or not he is tough, mentally present and has life experience.

Trump is most competent person running. The best thing is he doesnt act like a politician but as a dude you could have beer with. Take away politics from him, he still has a life, others not so much.
I dont trust a person who hangs their entire ego on one thing.
You need tough people as leaders.
A woman wont do, for obvious reasons.

Dude basically just enjoying his retirement doing something he loves. Ideal.
Its nice to see him just telling it like it is. Not something you see often these days.
 
Trump is most competent person running. The best thing is he doesnt act like a politician but as a dude you could have beer with. Take away politics from him, he still has a life, others not so much.
I dont trust a person who hangs their entire ego on one thing.
You need tough people as leaders.
A woman wont do, for obvious reasons.
Kind of bizarre how Trump’s followers love that “he’s not a politician”.
I would want a competent politician with a long career in politics to lead the country. Ideally that’s how it should be. There are not many other jobs where people go like “I love that my doctor is not a doctor” or “I love that my plumber is not a plumber” (unless in Johnny Sins maybe).

Also Trump faked an injury to get out of being drafted. There is nothing tough about him. Women are way tougher. Try to give birth to a child and say again that women aren’t tough.
 
Kind of bizarre how Trump’s followers love that “he’s not a politician”.
I would want a competent politician with a long career in politics to lead the country. Ideally that’s how it should be. There are not many other jobs where people go like “I love that my doctor is not a doctor” or “I love that my plumber is not a plumber” (unless in Johnny Sins maybe).

Also Trump faked an injury to get out of being drafted. There is nothing tough about him. Women are way tougher. Try to give birth to a child and say again that women aren’t tough.
I like what Arnold did in Calif though but I agree. Arnold was an exception to the rule maybe.
 
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Kind of bizarre how Trump’s followers love that “he’s not a politician”.
I would want a competent politician with a long career in politics to lead the country. Ideally that’s how it should be. There are not many other jobs where people go like “I love that my doctor is not a doctor” or “I love that my plumber is not a plumber” (unless in Johnny Sins maybe).

Also Trump faked an injury to get out of being drafted. There is nothing tough about him. Women are way tougher. Try to give birth to a child and say again that women aren’t tough.
I dont know the details about him, Im not even american.
I just know what intuitively I feel about the dude, in comparison with others.
And the politicians I know from my country, or people who are into it and party members. I was not impressed with their behaviors let alone capabilities.

All in all politicians are not fit to lead the country. Politics is a game invented to select for sociopaths hungry for others to subscribe to their game, because only then it makes some sense.

Leaders should be people who have proven themselves in some field and business is very good analogy for leading country, after all, a country is a business. So the transition is smooth.
You would still maybe get a lot of sociopaths, but at least proven in some field that actually is tangible.

Being accomplished politician is like saying you are accomplished in being alive. Its all social games and slimyness. I dont trust people like that because they have weird aura about them. And the few experiences I had confirmed it.

Politics is inferior way of living life. Its a level they succumb to in order to feel powerful. I "log in" to see what the clowns of the world are doing but I know very well the illusion of influence is just that - illusion. Every person alive is equally influential on every other person. but this is something monkey minded power hungry people dont know so they play stupid games. No wonder many cucks are politicians.
They spend entire lives chasing power. But they never embody it.

A lot of things people do are not really rooted in reality but just hang in middle of nothing, with hope that if others also affirm the same nothingness, somehow it becomes valid in relationship to itself. Politics is one of it, psychology another, current monetary system based on " ", as well. At least gold was a standard, now there is not even that. Then you got physicists "proving" its all simulation, people trying to devalue genders, races etc, everything is relative-ized lately, because truth became painful to observe for upcoming generation of people who are raised on comfort and addicted to it.

But if you actually do some soul seeking and contemplative thought, you can find a solid base to build your worldview on, and things become very clear once you do that.
Like Miyamoto Musashi wrote: Truth is what it is, and you can bend to it or live a lie.
And truly its a beautiful world after all, and every one alive is equally important part of this world. And all of this POTUS shit at the end of the day, or its beginning or its middle, doesnt really matter.

As for women being tough, women are tough in their own ways. But often when a woman is a good strong powerful leader, she loses her attractiveness and femininity. Which goes to show that women are not built for it.
When a man is a good leader he grows in attractiveness and masculinity. Also I despise the modern trend of women being obsessed with proving they are tough, how about proving you are nurturing?
Women are born nurturers. I see today its a lot about power, power of sex appeal, of body, of character. But what about nurturing ability?
A nurturing woman, is a real treasure.

I was watching some K drama today (like a proper high test beast that I am without even trying) and see some girls were complaining about this actress being a Mary Sue character... And I wonder whats wrong with being damsel in need of savior? Whats so wrong about that? A man needs to be saved by God, no shame about it, and a woman too needs a man to show her the ropes of life and how to be satisfied and happy. In many ways women create a home, but men create environment for women to create home. Its holographic thing. Zoom in zoom out its same pattern repeating itself, like flower, a row of petals encircling another row of petals and into eternity. God, man, woman, children.

You should read Lynch - how to make a slave https://new.finalcall.com/2009/05/22/willie-lynch-letter-the-making-of-a-slave/

Now replace "black/negro" with "any human living in western society" and you pretty much can draw your own parallels.

It is a good read, I fully recommend it for anyone with above average IQ and attention span.

And as for God being a polarizing word that pretty much is connected with different ideas and associations for me in comparison to you dear reader, rest assured its not any religious concept you are familiar with.
(not talking to you Alice I know you gucci)