U.S. 2024 Presidential Election Season kicking off...so who are you betting on??

In case anyone is bothering to watch, Trump just swept the Iowa GOP Caucus tonight. Not a surprise at all. Desantis barely edged out Haley by about 2 points. Certainly not a good sign but certainly not a bellwether. I mean, Pete BUTTigieg beat out Bernie, Liz Warren and Biden came in 4th back in 2020. Ted Cruz beat Trump by around four points in 2016. Mike Huckabee (who I actually like) beat out McCain back in 2008, and crazy Rick SaNATORIUM won Iowa in 2012. The only candidates in recent history that won Iowa and actually became the party nominee were GWB, Obama and, unfortunately, Trump.

The interesting races will be the New Hampshire election next week, and then the South Carolina caucus right after that. If Nikki Haley can sweep both of those, which she actually has a chance of doing, the entire dynamic of the presidential race may drastically shift; and if she loses a state where she's endorsed by the popular governor and then her own fucking state, she's probably done.

I actually forced myself to watch Trump's "victory" speech tonight. This asshole really has become fully detached from reality. On a brighter note, I think I'm going to buy myself an e-bike or e-scooter from Costco this week, attach a basket for my lunch cooler full of alcoholic beverages and start riding around town getting shitfaced in the afternoons.
 
I read this on BBC News:

Polls show Biden and Trump would be neck and neck in a general election, while surveys show Haley beating Biden by as much as 17 points.

That seems logical and realistic. Many voters are displeased with Trump and Biden. So Nikki Haley would seem a good way out. Plus she would attract women votes.
I cant understand that Trumpers cannot do the maths and stick to him whatever the outcome.
 
turboman said:
I read this on BBC News:

Polls show Biden and Trump would be neck and neck in a general election, while surveys show Haley beating Biden by as much as 17 points.

That seems logical and realistic. Many voters are displeased with Trump and Biden. So Nikki Haley would seem a good way out. Plus she would attract women votes.
I cant understand that Trumpers cannot do the maths and stick to him whatever the outcome.
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That's basically the reality of the situation. Virtually every poll taken by every reliable polling agency in the U.S. shows that Trump and Biden are now tied, with most polls showing Trump with a very slight advantage, but when pitted against Nikki Haley, those same polls show her beating Biden by around 14-18%. And really, the results really aren't anything unexpected. Over 70% of registered Democrats don't want Joe Biden to run for re-election, and he fares even worse with Independents. And then there's still the desire to see the first female POTUS, regardless of party. Nikki Haley is very much an establishment Republican, so she's not some nutjob right-wing fanatic. She's very palatable to lifelong Republicans tired of the drama the Trump brings, as well as Independents who want our borders secured again and then Democrats and some liberals who actually don't want a demented, senile 80-something liability pretending to be POTUS and then who doesn't want to be at the party when the first female president is elected?

Trust me, I've been around this shit a long, long time. If the party can remove Trump and Nikki wins the presidency, the "I PICK NIKKI" parties are where all eligible young men with working penises and at least some degree of social skills will want to be, obviously wearing their NIKKI t-shirts, because nothing gets young political activist-type girls horny like a big female win. Any win, for that matter, but electing the first woman to be POTUS? Wall-to-wall pussy at any election night party, up for grabs and not "grabbing" like DJT. If you were around for election night in November 2008, you'll know.
 
I consider myself pretty left leaning these days but even I would probably go with Nikki over Biden or Trump. If she can get the nomination she probably gets the presidency.

So my question as someone who doesn't follow politics so much is why the hell isn't there any other democrats trying to run?
 
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I’ve heard that a lot and I can definitely agree, but I’m all for keeping old physical store fronts and not depending on a push for drastical change in the law.
It’s good that there is an option for this, both for the providers and the clients who prefer the safety and legality aspects (though for the girls I suspect there might be negative consequences for being on the government’s radar, just a speculation though) and I don’t feel like pushes to allow sex work are realistic to expect, nor may they be permanent since it could be changed back if the government changes.
So it’s important to protect what there is and what has been there through a long time, even if we may choose not to use it.
 
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qcryp said:
I consider myself pretty left leaning these days but even I would probably go with Nikki over Biden or Trump. If she can get the nomination she probably gets the presidency.

So my question as someone who doesn't follow politics so much is why the hell isn't there any other democrats trying to run?
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There were three potential Democratic candidates lining up but all were, presumably, snuffed out by the DNC. As I mentioned earlier in the year, both Pete Buttigieg (U.S. Secretary of Transportation) and Kamala Harris had been forming informal teams/committees within the administration and were trying to sway admin officials, appointees and secretaries toward joining their teams in a run against Biden. No doubt, wind of this immediately got to the DNC and both were issued the sternest of stern warnings (threats) not to upset the apple cart. No matter how worthless an incumbent is--short of him/her being an actual indictable criminal--the parties on both sides will always circle the wagons around incumbents and it's considered extremely poor form and judgment to openly campaign against a POTUS, particularly if you're a member of his/her administration.

The other was jackass Gavin Newsom. He even went so far as to participate in that ridiculous FoxNews forum last month to showcase his balls, and I give him credit for that, but evidently the DNC did not. When you're the governor of one of the most disastrous economies in the country with residents fleeing in droves for greener pastures in Arizona and Texas, and with violent crime and illegal immigration rates hitting historical records, you're probably not a great candidate to take on an incumbent.

But you're correct about Nikki Haley. She's not my favorite candidate of all time but given the situation I don't see another choice. I heard murmurings about potential extramarital issues with her and her staff members back in 2020, when she was being floated as the post-1/6 heir apparent, but that seems to have been dealt with. I mean, for a Republican governor from the south she's very socially moderate, she hits all the right notes on economic/geopolitical issues for the establishment GOP and she's a bright lady who earned respect and credibility on the world stage during her time as UN Ambassador. And every single poll conducted this season shows her absolutely destroying Biden in a head-to-head match-up.

The problem, as always, is DJT. Somehow, that fucker is polling double-digits ahead of her in NH, and the hard numbers aren't in yet but it looks to be similar in South Carolina. If Trump whoops her in NH and then in her own home state the following week, I fucking hate to say this but it'll be extremely difficult to stop that asshole from getting the GOP nomination. And let's not beat around the bush--there is no way in hell Joe Biden is will survive an campaign season against Trump, or any candidate for that matter, but particularly not against Trump who will humiliate and eviscerate him once his handlers are forced to allow him into a live debate. Sure, the two idiots are basically tied in recent polling with Trump showing a slight lead, but is either option really anything but a recipe for disaster?

Hacks and campaign operatives like me always spread bullshit narratives like "this is the most IMPORTANT ELECTION OF OUR LIFETIME!!" and it's always utter bullshit to compel the lazy to register absentee and sign/lick the ballot. The 2024 race may not truly hit that metric but it's coming pretty fucking close, and close enough to make a lot of old-timers like me consider coming out of retirement. But just like in 2016, it's probably too late. It's cool, though...I got my MAGA hat, kneepads and KY Jelly, all set for my job interview.
 
qcryp said:
I consider myself pretty left leaning these days but even I would probably go with Nikki over Biden or Trump. If she can get the nomination she probably gets the presidency.

So my question as someone who doesn't follow politics so much is why the hell isn't there any other democrats trying to run?
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Technically, there are a few Democrats running against Biden, but they are all long shot candidates with no realistic chance at this stage.

Usually, if an incumbent president is up for reelection, his party will try to clear a path for him. In the past, that has happened with both Democrats and Republicans.
 
SugoiBoy said:
Usually, if an incumbent president is up for reelection, his party will try to clear a path for him. In the past, that has happened with both Democrats and Republicans.
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Fucking hate this even if it makes sense given the way states do primaries via parties. Really liked what Alaska did with having an open primary then putting the top 4 on the November ballot with ranked choice. If every state did that, incumbents wanting another term still has to put in the minimum work to at least get on the November ballot. Biden and Trump shouldn't have gotten a free ride like they did.
 
SugoiBoy said:
Technically, there are a few Democrats running against Biden, but they are all long shot candidates with no realistic chance at this stage.

Usually, if an incumbent president is up for reelection, his party will try to clear a path for him. In the past, that has happened with both Democrats and Republicans.
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IIRC Bernie actually tried to run in 2012 but was pressured not to by the Democratic top brass. Imagine that whole movement springing up just after the Occupy Wall Street hit its fever pitch
 
SquidCity said:
IIRC Bernie actually tried to run in 2012 but was pressured not to by the Democratic top brass.
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That's nothing compared to what Team Clinton had the DNC and Debbie WasserMAN-Schultz do to him four years later. That's one thing I won't deny, I respect Hillary Clinton. That bitch is a fucking cold, ruthless gangster. Ends justify the means, no matter what. I'm surprised nobody found poor Bernie up in the mountains in upstate NY, with his death ruled a suicide by shooting himself three times in the back of the head, just like some of the other poor fucks on the Clinton Body Count list.

If Hillary could've just learned to at least PRETEND she was a pleasant person, maybe enroll in one semester of drama/acting at a good university, she could've been emperor (I doubt she'd use the term "empress") of the world by now.
 
Apparently the NH Dem primary is going on without Biden himself on the ballot. Most definitely not gonna matter at all but it'll be a weird one for sure.

Hard number's starting to form in NH and unless Nikki somehow pulled a rabbit out of the hat after Tim Scott's Trump nomination, it's basically Joever. Biden'll probably edge out Trump and the proverbial can will be kicked down the election road for another four years again
 
SquidCity said:
Apparently the NH Dem primary is going on without Biden himself on the ballot. Most definitely not gonna matter at all but it'll be a weird one for sure.

Hard number's starting to form in NH and unless Nikki somehow pulled a rabbit out of the hat after Tim Scott's Trump nomination, it's basically Joever. Biden'll probably edge out Trump and the proverbial can will be kicked down the election road for another four years again
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Haley needs to win in NH for there to be any chance of momentum, otherwise it's basically over especially if Trump hits 50%.

I think Biden is in a better position than people give him credit for (assuming no health issues between now and November). His party had a very good midterm performance which is a real historical outlier and is the main reason why there wasn't any serious pressure on him to not run again. Yes polls are not great for him now but we're 10 months away from Election Day. This always happens where people panic about polls almost a year before the election before average voters are actually paying attention. At this point in 2020 both COVID and George Floyd hadn't happened yet, so there's a long way to go and who knows what the environment will look like when voting actually takes place. It's hard for me to imagine Trump winning again when he is so clearly out of his mind and is toxic to much of America, not to mention that he could be a convicted felon on the ballot, but with the right environment it could happen.

Better question, why am I spending time posting about politics on an adult forum?!
 
Wow! Trump now confusing N.Halley and N.Pelosi… and he’s supposed to be the one with better cognitive abilities 😂

 
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turboman said:
DeSantis is out. Waiting for insight comments from our local political correspondent.
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If you're referring to me, I can tell you I didn't hear or see it coming but when DeSantis abruptly cancelled all of his Sunday interviews I figured something was up. There might be a backstory here. Granted, it might be that he just didn't want to face the embarrassment of coming in single-digits in NH, which was what every poll conducted suggested was going to happen; at the same time, however, many were predicting he could potentially thump Haley in SC just after that, but still lose to Trump.

My gut feeling is there was a major internal campaign issue and possibly something damaging coming out. You don't spend what DeSantis has spent on this stunt as a one-time heralded "alternative" to DJT and then just quit after the first caucus. And if this is a play for VP, which wouldn't surprise me as DeSantis is a shameless sack of shit, he's likely to wind up shit out of luck because word going around is that Trump's campaign team is eye-balling Sarah Huckabee Sanders as his potential running mate. I actually like her--and I worked with her father years back in fundraising operations and I really like him--so I was very disappointed when she decided to stick with Team MAGA. Her dad writing ridiculous fucking children's MAGA books is equally disappointing, but we all gotta make a living, I suppose.

I texted a few of my RNC buddies earlier when the DeSantis story broke, and according to them, the entire "establishment" wing of the GOP is now going all-balls, all-in for Haley. There's also a concerted effort by NH Democrats and Independents to caucus as Republicans this week to try and stop Trump. That's no surprise. Haley has already said she's not dropping out no matter what happens and will 100% head to the SC primary, so that's probably going to be where the line is drawn. If she loses NH and then her own state by 20 points, the major GOP establishment donors (like the Koch Brothers) may bail and start damage control, recalibrating for a likely second Trump Presidency. RNC operatives are hoping for some very damaging court rulings in the near future to thwart Trump's trajectory, but even that might not be enough.

Guess we just wait and see what happens on Tuesday. I know I said I'd be tuning out of this shit but old habit die hard. To her credit, Haley is the only GOP candidate that hasn't been shamelessly playing both sides of the fence, refusing to criticize or condemn Trump and hoping for a shot at VP once this is over, so I can't help but watch to see what happens.
 
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@Keihan
Thanks for your feedback.
If Nikki Haley does badly in NH, and chances to win the Republican nomination seem to go down, can she still by election rules run as an independent?
 
turboman said:
@Keihan
Thanks for your feedback.
If Nikki Haley does badly in NH, and chances to win the Republican nomination seem to go down, can she still by election rules run as an independent?
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I can guarantee you she won't run indy. There's already a potential indy/third-party run brewing with retiring Senators Joe Manchin and Mitt Romney, and they're waiting to see what happens in NH and SC. This is exactly the fucking ridiculous circus that Trump delivers. The reality is that there isn't going to be an "independent" victory to the WH, at least not this time. Either Nikki Haley pulls this shit off or Trump will most likely be our 47th POTUS.
 
Keihan said:
There's also a concerted effort by NH Democrats and Independents to caucus as Republicans this week to try and stop Trump.
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No wonder Biden took himself off the NH primary; gives his voters time to vote in the GOP one instead
Keihan said:
I can guarantee you she won't run indy. There's already a potential indy/third-party run brewing with retiring Senators Joe Manchin and Mitt Romney, and they're waiting to see what happens in NH and SC. This is exactly the fucking ridiculous circus that Trump delivers. The reality is that there isn't going to be an "independent" victory to the WH, at least not this time. Either Nikki Haley pulls this shit off or Trump will most likely be our 47th POTUS.
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There's a small part of me that expected Trump to run as an Indy in the rare chance the GOP doesn't kiss his ass, but I honestly doubt it's happening or that he has the balls to do it anyway. On that note, whatever happened to RFK and his three-way polling tie or whatever?
 
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Keihan said:
Either Nikki Haley pulls this shit off or Trump will most likely be our 47th POTUS.
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Is Biden really doing that bad that he has no chance if Trump is the nominee? I really feel like a lot of people will get off their ass and vote if it is Trump up there to try to stop that from happening again. But I also don't really know shit - also a hypocrite since I already have plans outside the country so I won't be voting.
 
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