U.S. 2024 Presidential Election Season kicking off...so who are you betting on??

[YokoMonger]

I didn't like it but it was inevitable. McDaniel oversaw a string of stunning losses and at the end of the day, the buck stops at the top of the food chain--no different from any other industry or corporate structure.

Well, it's good that you're voting for Trump as he's never been at the top of the food chain and is famous for living the embodiment of "the buck stops here". Guy has never been known to blame others for his own failures and takes accountability for his own actions.

But if fucking assholes can get our overall economy back to what it was pre-pandemic, and our national security back to what it was pre-Biden, then I'm willing to vote for them.

Well that's a relief. At first I was worried you'd back someone famous for falling into successful situations the fucking it all up with his greed, bad business decisions, narcissism, and criminal activity. Imagine voting for a guy that too a billion dollar empire and turned into an over leveraged bankrupted shell if itself. No, Keihan is way to smart to vote for someone like that.

Also, I'm glad you take security seriously. Imagine voting for a guy that reveals top secret information to enemy nations, or thinks copies of top secret information belongs to him even when he had his security clearance revoked, or reveals top secret information on social media, or is in debt to foreign nations and makes national decisions based on how they'll treat his properties. Not Keihan, that's for sure.

It's just good to know you take your vote seriously.

 

[just4fun]

I didn't like it but it was inevitable. McDaniel oversaw a string of stunning losses and at the end of the day, the buck stops at the top of the food chain--no different from any other industry or corporate structure.

Do I like Lara Trump as RNC co-chair? No, I don't. I don't like her, or her husband, and the truth is that aside from Ivanka and Melania I think the entire Trump family is full of fucking assholes. But if fucking assholes can get our overall economy back to what it was pre-pandemic, and our national security back to what it was pre-Biden, then I'm willing to vote for them.

BTW, just to be polite, you're misusing the term "nepo baby." That term applies to someone who rode his/her parent's coattails into success in the same industry. Fred Trump never became a mega-celebrity, author, reality television star and then, of course, POTUS. It would be more appropriate if Baron Trump were to some day become a national celebrity and then POTUS. Just so you know.

Just to be polite. You're a Jerk off.

 

[Frenchy]

Well, it's good that you're voting for Trump as he's never been at the top of the food chain and is famous for living the embodiment of "the buck stops here". Guy has never been known to blame others for his own failures and takes accountability for his own actions.


Well that's a relief. At first I was worried you'd back someone famous for falling into successful situations the fucking it all up with his greed, bad business decisions, narcissism, and criminal activity. Imagine voting for a guy that too a billion dollar empire and turned into an over leveraged bankrupted shell if itself. No, Keihan is way to smart to vote for someone like that.

Also, I'm glad you take security seriously. Imagine voting for a guy that reveals top secret information to enemy nations, or thinks copies of top secret information belongs to him even when he had his security clearance revoked, or reveals top secret information on social media, or is in debt to foreign nations and makes national decisions based on how they'll treat his properties. Not Keihan, that's for sure.

It's just good to know you take your vote seriously.

For the national security thing let’s add that nobody can guaranty it better than a draft dodger who insulted war heroes and allies. It gives perspective , insight, and a strong moral compass when shit hits the fan

 

[SquidCity]

BTW, just to be polite, you're misusing the term "nepo baby." That term applies to someone who rode his/her parent's coattails into success in the same industry. Fred Trump never became a mega-celebrity, author, reality television star and then, of course, POTUS. It would be more appropriate if Baron Trump were to some day become a national celebrity and then POTUS. Just so you know.

Good point, because Mr. "Not" Nepo Baby can't even ride his father's coattail to business success so he had to lie and grift his way to the presidency instead

 

[zawarudo777]

Another thing for which I can’t figure out the US system. Same with Puerto Rico if I remember well. We are not especially proud of our colonial past but at least now all citizens in Tahiti, Guyana, New Caledonia etc have the same voting rights as in the mainland

Funny thing about Samoa: they actually don't want to be recognized as a state. Among other things, it would impede their ability to reject Chinese people from purchasing property, have forced prayer at certain times of day, etc.

All I'm saying is that everyone should be careful what they wish for, particularly when it comes to politics. You may just end up getting it.

 

[zawarudo777]

It is already back to pre-pandemic level , even better

I have to wonder what you're basing this off of. Some indicators such as the stock market may suggest this is the case, but inflation and cost of living suggest otherwise. I'm sure there are stats out there that can paint the current economic situation in the US positively, but as someone who is (unfortunately) still living here, I assure you that many people are struggling. It's easy to prove that the cost of most food items for instance have gone up over 100% from a few years ago.

Also, I can't help but laugh at those who consider 2019 to be an economic benchmark for the US. That was the year I moved back here and I could not fucking believe how expensive it was just to live. Compared to Japan, most everything I was paying for was significantly more expensive and of significantly lower quality.

 

[Frenchy]

I have to wonder what you're basing this off of. Some indicators such as the stock market may suggest this is the case, but inflation and cost of living suggest otherwise. I'm sure there are stats out there that can paint the current economic situation in the US positively, but as someone who is (unfortunately) still living here, I assure you that many people are struggling. It's easy to prove that the cost of most food items for instance have gone up over 100% from a few years ago.

Also, I can't help but laugh at those who consider 2019 to be an economic benchmark for the US. That was the year I moved back here and I could not fucking believe how expensive it was just to live. Compared to Japan, most everything I was paying for was significantly more expensive and of significantly lower quality.

Look at for inflation-adjusted GDP growth (ie Real GDP) . If you have a better indicator of a country’s economic health please let me know. It’s funny how everyone scream about inflation but forget that wages and financial income (dividends, interests) overall increased too .

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

As for Japan having cheaper prices , yes I agree (wasn’t always that way though). But decades of deflation , zero-interest rates, higher taxes and a weak currency have drawbacks too.

 

[zawarudo777]

Real median income is a better indicator of how well most people are doing, and that did in fact peak in 2019.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N

Again, though, this is hardly a glowing endorsement of the overall economy at that point. The cost of things that could actually position you for a better life such as housing, education, etc continued to increase at a rate which made it infeasible for most people to attain without going into debt. The problem as I see it is that most of those trends have continued while the cost of basic necessities have also increased, making any progress on inflation or GDP irrelevant to how affordable most things are to most people.

 

[Frenchy]

Real median income is a better indicator of how well most people are doing, and that did in fact peak in 2019.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N

Again, though, this is hardly a glowing endorsement of the overall economy at that point. The cost of things that could actually position you for a better life such as housing, education, etc continued to increase at a rate which made it infeasible for most people to attain without going into debt. The problem as I see it is that most of those trends have continued while the cost of basic necessities have also increased, making any progress on inflation or GDP irrelevant to how affordable most things are to most people.

I agree, but note that the data is until 2022 only, and there is always a lag between inflation (especially the explosive one we saw post- Covid) and income catch-up. 2023 should show better results. Besides 2022 was still better than 2018 under the supposedly paradisiac Trump economy, so what the heck?

Just one piece of advice to my American friends , based on what I saw while living there: maybe you need less shit too. Less consumption and less debt for a few years ain’t necessarily a bad thing.

 

[zawarudo777]

Way ahead of ya. I barely buy anything besides necessities at this point. I make more now than I ever have yet feel compelled to spend less than ever. I'm every economists worst nightmare.

 

[Keihan]

Real median income is a better indicator of how well most people are doing, and that did in fact peak in 2019.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N

Again, though, this is hardly a glowing endorsement of the overall economy at that point. The cost of things that could actually position you for a better life such as housing, education, etc continued to increase at a rate which made it infeasible for most people to attain without going into debt. The problem as I see it is that most of those trends have continued while the cost of basic necessities have also increased, making any progress on inflation or GDP irrelevant to how affordable most things are to most people.

Don't mind Frenchy. He's one of the forum's two poster children for Clinical TDS and the mere glimpse of an orange comb-over whips him into a frenzy that renders him impervious to logic, reality or self-control. But again, he doesn't live, or work, or buy groceries or raise a family in the U.S. so he has the luxury of living completely detached from the reality of having to pay $8 for a carton of eggs, or $6 for a gallon of milk, or watching your electricity bill go from $80/month to $120/month and while paying $6/gallon for gas...which certainly was NOT the situation in 2019. The bright side is that while he can rant and rave and insult people online (sound familiar?) he can't vote here. Americans who DO remember life in 2019 vs 2024 will.

 

[Frenchy]

Way ahead of ya. I barely buy anything besides necessities at this point. I make more now than I ever have yet feel compelled to spend less than ever. I'm every economists worst nightmare.

… so, what can’t you afford now that you could 5 or 10 years ago?

 

[zawarudo777]

… so, what can’t you afford now that you could 5 or 10 years ago?

More that I've already made most of my big purchases long ago and don't really need to make more for the foreseeable future. I keep things relatively simple compared to most people I guess, but that may also be why my credit score starts with a 7.

 

[Frenchy]

Don't mind Frenchy. He's one of the forum's two poster children for Clinical TDS and the mere glimpse of an orange comb-over whips him into a frenzy that renders him impervious to logic, reality or self-control. But again, he doesn't live, or work, or buy groceries or raise a family in the U.S. so he has the luxury of living completely detached from the reality of having to pay $8 for a carton of eggs, or $6 for a gallon of milk, or watching your electricity bill go from $80/month to $120/month and while paying $6/gallon for gas...which certainly was NOT the situation in 2019. The bright side is that while he can rant and rave and insult people online (sound familiar?) he can't vote here. Americans who DO remember life in 2019 vs 2024 will.

Blah blah blah
I probably pay more to Uncle Sam in witholding taxes than you so STFU , I still have the right to post what I want, it’s a free TAG country here.
Besides, again, real Trump Derangement Syndrome is to consider he’s still a viable candidate after Jan 6 . Period

 

[Frenchy]

More that I've already made most of my big purchases long ago and don't really need to make more for the foreseeable future. I keep things relatively simple compared to most people I guess, but that may also be why my credit score starts with a 7.

So it’s not all Dickensian abject poverty, right? 😄

 

[zawarudo777]

Don't mind Frenchy. He's one of the forum's two poster children for Clinical TDS and the mere glimpse of an orange comb-over whips him into a frenzy that renders him impervious to logic, reality or self-control. But again, he doesn't live, or work, or buy groceries or raise a family in the U.S. so he has the luxury of living completely detached from the reality of having to pay $8 for a carton of eggs, or $6 for a gallon of milk, or watching your electricity bill go from $80/month to $120/month and while paying $6/gallon for gas...which certainly was NOT the situation in 2019. The bright side is that while he can rant and rave and insult people online (sound familiar?) he can't vote here. Americans who DO remember life in 2019 vs 2024 will.

Energy is another big one for sure, though at least where I am that's been a problem since at least 2019.

I get that people romanticize the pre pandemic era for how relatively easy it was, but I don't think 2019 was particularly great for most young people especially. People just entering the workforce, people in entry level positions, etc. really weren't that much better off than people in the same position today. In the short term, it may seem that way, since small changes in price matter more the less you make, but these same people five years ago weren't about to start purchasing homes, either.

 

[Frenchy]

Energy is another big one for sure, though at least where I am that's been a problem since at least 2019.

I get that people romanticize the pre pandemic era for how relatively easy it was, but I don't think 2019 was particularly great for most young people especially. People just entering the workforce, people in entry level positions, etc. really weren't that much better off than people in the same position today. In the short term, it may seem that way, since small changes in price matter more the less you make, but these same people five years ago weren't about to start purchasing homes, either.

One thing must be tough I admit: interest rates are much higher and for people with adjustable mortgages and loads of credit card debt that must be hard. But then again we could not live in a zero interest rate environment forever. Japan is about to find out too

 

[Keihan]

TDS is certainly as strong here as it was in the last thread four years ago...at least among three or four certain members who are still obviously as emotionally invested in something as silly as an election and political candidate. As interesting as it is to observe them dissolving into fits of hysterics again and menstruate uncontrollably, that's probably not very productive. So since this was SUPPOSED to be a thread about casual predictions, it's a great time to pivot to:

WHO DO YOU THINK TRUMP WILL PICK AS HIS RUNNING MATE?

The current list being floated by the Trump Campaign includes the following:

1) Kristi Noem
2) Elise Stefanik
3) Tim Scott
4) Vivek Ramaswamy
5) Greg Abbott
6) Sarah Huckabee Sanders
7) Katie Britt
8) MTG
9) Tucker Carlson
10) Ron Desantis
11) Tulsi Gabbard

Off the bat, I think the majority of those are just red herrings or PR stunts, a tactic commonly used by Trump's campaign in the past to gin up publicity. No person in his/her right mind would pick, say, MTG or Tucker Carlson as a running mate. Katie Britt most certainly snuffed out her political star after the SOTU speech, delivering what I do believe was the most ridiculous, insincere and ludicrous response I can remember in my lifetime.

If I'm going to venture a guess, it'd either be Sarah Huckabee Sanders or Tim Scott, and not in any certain order. The conventional wisdom with picking a ticket running mate is to choose one that complements the nominee--if the nominee is a former governor/executive, you pick a seasoned legislator, preferably a longtime U.S. Representative or attractive Senator (Bush/Cheney); if the nominee is a longtime legislator, you pick an executive/governor (McCain/Palin). In the case of Trump in 2016, he was an obnoxious, blowhard celebrity and business executive so the natural logic was to choose a calm, respectable, presentable legislator (Mike Pence). This time around it's more like anything goes, and his own people have taken over the RNC, so all bets are off...but if it were my decision I'd probably go with Sarah Sanders. Female, highly intelligent, proven track record of being able to go toe-to-toe with the TDS media industry on a daily business and she shores up his shortcomings with the GOP establishment. And since Trump is notorious for being obsessed with "loyalty" from those around him, Sanders and her father have been faithful backers for years. That said, I suspect he's eyeing Tim Scott for VP.

Then again, in true Trump fashion this entire thing could be a ruse and he'll end up choosing Elon Musk as his running mate.

 

[zawarudo777]

So it’s not all Dickensian abject poverty, right? 😄

It's clear that the cost of necessities have increased, whether you factor inflation or not. It's also clear that the circumstances which make housing for instance unaffordable today were also present five years ago. I think what's happening to most people is that they're spinning their wheels about as much as they were five years ago, with perhaps some personal austerity measures in place to prevent going sideways. The end result though is a lower quality of life for the same money you were spending on a higher one before.

 

[Frenchy]

As interesting as it is to observe them dissolving into fits of hysterics again and menstruate uncontrollably, that's probably not very productive.

Lol! Coming from YOU that made me literally laugh out loud . Thanks! 😂

 

[Frenchy]

It's clear that the cost of necessities have increased, whether you factor inflation or not. It's also clear that the circumstances which make housing for instance unaffordable today were also present five years ago. I think what's happening to most people is that they're spinning their wheels about as much as they were five years ago, with perhaps some personal austerity measures in place to prevent going sideways. The end result though is a lower quality of life for the same money you were spending on a higher one before.

I dont get your first sentence: of course you factor inflation when talking about… inflation. You meant “whether you factor income increases or not” right?

 

[Frenchy]

TDS is certainly as strong here as it was in the last thread four years ago...at least among three or four certain members who are still obviously as emotionally invested in something as silly as an election and political candidate. As interesting as it is to observe them dissolving into fits of hysterics again and menstruate uncontrollably, that's probably not very productive. So since this was SUPPOSED to be a thread about casual predictions, it's a great time to pivot to:

WHO DO YOU THINK TRUMP WILL PICK AS HIS RUNNING MATE?

The current list being floated by the Trump Campaign includes the following:

1) Kristi Noem
2) Elise Stefanik
3) Tim Scott
4) Vivek Ramaswamy
5) Greg Abbott
6) Sarah Huckabee Sanders
7) Katie Britt
8) MTG
9) Tucker Carlson
10) Ron Desantis
11) Tulsi Gabbard

Off the bat, I think the majority of those are just red herrings or PR stunts, a tactic commonly used by Trump's campaign in the past to gin up publicity. No person in his/her right mind would pick, say, MTG or Tucker Carlson as a running mate. Katie Britt most certainly snuffed out her political star after the SOTU speech, delivering what I do believe was the most ridiculous, insincere and ludicrous response I can remember in my lifetime.

If I'm going to venture a guess, it'd either be Sarah Huckabee Sanders or Tim Scott, and not in any certain order. The conventional wisdom with picking a ticket running mate is to choose one that complements the nominee--if the nominee is a former governor/executive, you pick a seasoned legislator, preferably a longtime U.S. Representative or attractive Senator (Bush/Cheney); if the nominee is a longtime legislator, you pick an executive/governor (McCain/Palin). In the case of Trump in 2016, he was an obnoxious, blowhard celebrity and business executive so the natural logic was to choose a calm, respectable, presentable legislator (Mike Pence). This time around it's more like anything goes, and his own people have taken over the RNC, so all bets are off...but if it were my decision I'd probably go with Sarah Sanders. Female, highly intelligent, proven track record of being able to go toe-to-toe with the TDS media industry on a daily business and she shores up his shortcomings with the GOP establishment. And since Trump is notorious for being obsessed with "loyalty" from those around him, Sanders and her father have been faithful backers for years. That said, I suspect he's eyeing Tim Scott for VP.

Then again, in true Trump fashion this entire thing could be a ruse and he'll end up choosing Elon Musk as his running mate.

For all I care he could pick a Colonel Saunders or Ronald McDonald impersonator. Would be quite fitting actually

 

[zawarudo777]

I dont get your first sentence: of course you factor inflation when talking about… inflation. You meant “whether you factor income increases or not” right?

If the cost of something has gone up over 100%, a few percent inflation isn't going to significantly offset the increase in cost.

It may sound hyperbolic, but it's actually going on in the US right now.

 

[Frenchy]

If the cost of something has gone up over 100%, a few percent inflation isn't going to significantly offset the increase in cost.

It may sound hyperbolic, but it's actually going on in the US right now.

But inflation MEANS increase in costs!
Ah ok I think I get what you mean now: if SOME specific products cost like +100% (which ones by the way?) then people don’t care about the average inflation rate of ALL products. Makes sense

 

[zawarudo777]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111

Here you can see eggs went from $2 on average in 2020 to almost $5 in 2022. This chart claims the price has since dropped, but at least where I live they're still $8 a dozen. Most food has gone up in price, but eggs for sure are the most noticeable.