U.S. 2024 Presidential Election Season kicking off...so who are you betting on??

Outside of the otherwise blue states, they aren't, but there's other factors that go into how those areas end up doing. Politicians love to cite the number of jobs created in a given quarter or year, but what you rarely hear about is where those jobs are located in the country.

If you have even a passing familiarity with the opioid crisis here, you know that it's mostly rural areas being impacted by it. Those are the same areas where once jobs leave, they tend to stay away. A good portion of the people left behind end up turning to drugs to numb the pain. So if the cost of living does go back down to pre-pandemic levels, but there's no jobs in your area anymore (sometimes not even the basic ones, look up food deserts in the US), has the problem actually been solved or not?

This is why if you drive about an hour outside the limits of any metropolitan area in the US, you do in fact find abject poverty and third world living conditions.
 
zawarudo777 said:
Outside of the otherwise blue states, they aren't, but there's other factors that go into how those areas end up doing. Politicians love to cite the number of jobs created in a given quarter or year, but what you rarely hear about is where those jobs are located in the country.

If you have even a passing familiarity with the opioid crisis here, you know that it's mostly rural areas being impacted by it. Those are the same areas where once jobs leave, they tend to stay away. A good portion of the people left behind end up turning to drugs to numb the pain. So if the cost of living does go back down to pre-pandemic levels, but there's no jobs in your area anymore (sometimes not even the basic ones, look up food deserts in the US), has the problem actually been solved or not?

This is why if you drive about an hour outside the limits of any metropolitan area in the US, you do in fact find abject poverty and third world living conditions.
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Well, maybe you don’t need to be stucked in “your area” . I thought Americans were champions at mobility. If there is no more job in say, Paris, Texas and the little money you can’t spend on eggs but for some reasons you can spend on fentanyl is driving you nuts, maybe it’s time to move to places with more “for hire” announcements….
I am surprised however that the most abject poverty is to be found in rural areas given how much the GOP says they are efficiently and conservatively managed compared to those gawdaful crime-infected big blue cities…
 
Two things can be true at once. Crime is in fact a huge problem in blue cities. SF just recently passed measures to fight crime after years of letting it slide. But yes, I do agree that the GOP leaves a good amount of their constituents behind as well.

The point I'm trying to make here is that the stock market and GDP are not good indicators of how the typical American is doing financially. I'm a bipartisan disliker of people who try to draw equivalence between the portfolios of hedge fund managers and the salaries of most people.
 
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zawarudo777 said:
Two things can be true at once. Crime is in fact a huge problem in blue cities. SF just recently passed measures to fight crime after years of letting it slide. But yes, I do agree that the GOP leaves a good amount of their constituents behind as well.

The point I'm trying to make here is that the stock market and GDP are not good indicators of how the typical American is doing financially. I'm a bipartisan disliker of people who try to draw equivalence between the portfolios of hedge fund managers and the salaries of most people.
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Yes, I agree on that. It’s an issue not just in the US . Our farmers for instance work very hard for less and less money yet see food prices increase in supermarkets. I can understand their anger. I’m not so sure politicians left or right are really able to prevent it, to be honest. It must be a collective effort. Now for instance there is a big movement to buy more domestic products even if more expensive than imports. People understand you can’t cry on our farmers’ lot if you don’t accept to fork a little bit more for their products
 
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Wait, 6 dollars per gallon of oil is expensive? That's still quite some bit cheaper than what we pay here, adjusting for currency and income
 
fireman said:
I keep wondering whether someone will run as an independent and leech enough votes to swing the election. Unfortunately I have a feeling this would benefit Trump simply because his followers treat him like a religious figure.
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I think this is the most interesting thought in the last 5 pages I read on this thread.
Spinning some thoughts: what if …. Nikki Haley starts a third party, middle of the road. She sucks off some votes from the republicans. Not enough to become president, but with the split republican vote, Biden might make it.
Story continued: assume in congress republicans and democrats each get 45% and the new middle party gets 10%. Then the new middle party becomes kingmaker.
After that, the new party, with good policies, can form a basis to grow. Eventually delivering a president.
It would alter the future history of the US forever.
 
The problem with this hypothetical is something you sorta touched upon: there's no way for a meaningful third party to exist in a first past the post electoral system. Perhaps a third party could rise to prominence, but as a matter of necessity, it will come at the cost of another party. A permanent 15% stake in Congress is simply not possible. It's do or die in American politics. And even if you do win as a third party, who's to say you'll be able to enact any of the things you were elected to? As it stands, there's already far too many similarities between D and R for my liking, and I can't imagine any replacement party that could actually win elections would be much different.
 
turboman said:
I think this is the most interesting thought in the last 5 pages I read on this thread.
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It's also the most absurd, ridiculous and borne of pure ignorance. The pipedream that Nikki Haley will run third-party and throw the election to Biden is just utterly idiotic wishful thinking by desperate Democrats or people who aren't paying attention. Haley is as GOP Establishment as GOP Establishment can come, and that means she doesn't bite the hands that feed her. The billionaire club of RNC donors (like the Koch Bros) were desperately urging her to drop out and promising to bankroll her 2028 presidential campaign; someone as obviously ambitious as she is, is not going to fuck herself and burn those bridges on a pointless spoiler endeavor to aid the Democrats and help re-elect a frail, senile old man whose promises you couldn't count on as, even if he wins, he probably won't survive the next four years in office. Besides, she already was a WH cabinet member. There's nothing Slow Joe can offer her, short of the VP slot, and that's obviously not going to happen. Nope, she already has her sights set on 2028.

The only, and I mean--ONLY--potential third-party run that might actually prove consequential is the still percolating indy ticket of Mitt (Shit) Romney and Joe Manchin, which would be a purpose-driven campaign to sink Donald Trump by siphoning off enough disgruntled Republicans and conservative Democrats to toss the race to Biden, obviously in exchange for cabinet appointments (at least for Romney, I hear Joe Manchin is ready to retire).

The reason you don't hear more about such potential indy runs is because at the end of the day they're a colossal waste of time and money. Political parties still remember the lessons learned from the Nader and Perot campaigns, and then the refresher course from the Bernie campaign. Pouring hundreds of millions into a black hole simply isn't prudent political strategy, no matter what side you're on, and that's why you most likely won't see it done again in the near future.
 
Keihan said:
It's also the most absurd, ridiculous and borne of pure ignorance. The pipedream that Nikki Haley will run third-party and throw the election to Biden is just utterly idiotic wishful thinking by desperate Democrats or people who aren't paying attention. Haley is as GOP Establishment as GOP Establishment can come, and that means she doesn't bite the hands that feed her. The billionaire club of RNC donors (like the Koch Bros) were desperately urging her to drop out and promising to bankroll her 2028 presidential campaign; someone as obviously ambitious as she is, is not going to fuck herself and burn those bridges on a pointless spoiler endeavor to aid the Democrats and help re-elect a frail, senile old man whose promises you couldn't count on as, even if he wins, he probably won't survive the next four years in office. Besides, she already was a WH cabinet member. There's nothing Slow Joe can offer her, short of the VP slot, and that's obviously not going to happen. Nope, she already has her sights set on 2028.

The only, and I mean--ONLY--potential third-party run that might actually prove consequential is the still percolating indy ticket of Mitt (Shit) Romney and Joe Manchin, which would be a purpose-driven campaign to sink Donald Trump by siphoning off enough disgruntled Republicans and conservative Democrats to toss the race to Biden, obviously in exchange for cabinet appointments (at least for Romney, I hear Joe Manchin is ready to retire).

The reason you don't hear more about such potential indy runs is because at the end of the day they're a colossal waste of time and money. Political parties still remember the lessons learned from the Nader and Perot campaigns, and then the refresher course from the Bernie campaign. Pouring hundreds of millions into a black hole simply isn't prudent political strategy, no matter what side you're on, and that's why you most likely won't see it done again in the near future.
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I bet your wife is really fucking Ugly
 
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zawarudo777 said:
The problem with this hypothetical is something you sorta touched upon: there's no way for a meaningful third party to exist in a first past the post electoral system.
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The more realistic possibility is for a third-party candidate to be a deciding factor in an otherwise close presidential election, as happened in 1968, 1992, and 2000. I certainly wouldn't expect Nikki Haley to be this person, as I think the only reason anyone liked her was because she wasn't Trump. It would need to be someone with broader appeal.

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fireman said:
The more realistic possibility is for a third-party candidate to be a deciding factor in an otherwise close presidential election, as happened in 1968, 1992, and 2000. I certainly wouldn't expect Nikki Haley to be this person, as I think the only reason anyone liked her was because she wasn't Trump. It would need to be someone with broader appeal.
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Being the purely ignorant person (according to ad hominem Keihan) that made a comment previously on this matter, I would like to add:
main factor to start a third party is to achieve a minimum critical mass in order to survive. Factors to achieve a critical mass:

It has to be a middle party, not a fringe party, appealing to a broad spectrum of voters.

Led by two figurehead persons joining forces to siphon of voters who are negatively oriented towards Trump and Biden. On the republican side, I could see Nikki. On the democrat side, don‘t know enough about US politicians.

One lead person should be a woman in order to appeal to 50% of voters.

Main aim to survive is not the presidential election, but congressional election.

yours ignorant truly
 
Keihan said:
It's also the most absurd, ridiculous and borne of pure ignorance. The pipedream that Nikki Haley will run third-party and throw the election to Biden is just utterly idiotic wishful thinking by desperate Democrats or people who aren't paying attention. Haley is as GOP Establishment as GOP Establishment can come, and that means she doesn't bite the hands that feed her. The billionaire club of RNC donors (like the Koch Bros) were desperately urging her to drop out and promising to bankroll her 2028 presidential campaign; someone as obviously ambitious as she is, is not going to fuck herself and burn those bridges on a pointless spoiler endeavor to aid the Democrats and help re-elect a frail, senile old man whose promises you couldn't count on as, even if he wins, he probably won't survive the next four years in office. Besides, she already was a WH cabinet member. There's nothing Slow Joe can offer her, short of the VP slot, and that's obviously not going to happen. Nope, she already has her sights set on 2028.

The only, and I mean--ONLY--potential third-party run that might actually prove consequential is the still percolating indy ticket of Mitt (Shit) Romney and Joe Manchin, which would be a purpose-driven campaign to sink Donald Trump by siphoning off enough disgruntled Republicans and conservative Democrats to toss the race to Biden, obviously in exchange for cabinet appointments (at least for Romney, I hear Joe Manchin is ready to retire).

The reason you don't hear more about such potential indy runs is because at the end of the day they're a colossal waste of time and money. Political parties still remember the lessons learned from the Nader and Perot campaigns, and then the refresher course from the Bernie campaign. Pouring hundreds of millions into a black hole simply isn't prudent political strategy, no matter what side you're on, and that's why you most likely won't see it done again in the near future.
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Brother I never pick fights with you because I can understand what you're coming from. I also don't really comment here other than doomsday posts despite being a somewhat proud American. When Trump wins the presidency, America is in for a world of shit. The world is in for a world of shit. Like, I get what you mean about how Republicans are going to regain some political power and start dropping shitty policies, but there is absolutely no good future for the States because of the bipartisan friction at this point.

Seriously, apply for your citizenship back here in Japan, where you can groan endlessly about the shit-filled pools at SpaWorld and missed opportunities getting assfucked by newhalfs. This argument you have made continuously proves that the West is falling and when it does folks like you are going to become targets (as last I checked Americans don't distinguish between Japanese and Chinese people.)

This is NOT something to laugh about. Or to troll about. Or to throw out statistics to be right about.
This is the most serious fucking problem this planet has faced yet, and its literally less than a year away.
 
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Wow! So much gloom and doom ….
Well if “a majority of Americans” really want a shitshow let them have it, after all . Not going to argue with “a majority of Americans “… 😄
 
turboman said:
Being the purely ignorant person (according to ad hominem Keihan) that made a comment previously on this matter, I would like to add:
main factor to start a third party is to achieve a minimum critical mass in order to survive. Factors to achieve a critical mass:

It has to be a middle party, not a fringe party, appealing to a broad spectrum of voters.

Led by two figurehead persons joining forces to siphon of voters who are negatively oriented towards Trump and Biden. On the republican side, I could see Nikki. On the democrat side, don‘t know enough about US politicians.

One lead person should be a woman in order to appeal to 50% of voters.

Main aim to survive is not the presidential election, but congressional election.

yours ignorant truly
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Now that I think about it, if no 3rd party can emerge from this shitshow where tons of people on both side dislike both candidates, then it is obvious a 3rd party will never happen. I guess that was already pretty obvious though.

Theres no way to get any sort of reform like ranked choice voting since no politician has any incentive to push for it.
 
requiemmorrow said:
Brother I never pick fights with you because I can understand what you're coming from. I also don't really comment here other than doomsday posts despite being a somewhat proud American. When Trump wins the presidency, America is in for a world of shit. The world is in for a world of shit. Like, I get what you mean about how Republicans are going to regain some political power and start dropping shitty policies, but there is absolutely no good future for the States because of the bipartisan friction at this point.

Seriously, apply for your citizenship back here in Japan, where you can groan endlessly about the shit-filled pools at SpaWorld and missed opportunities getting assfucked by newhalfs. This argument you have made continuously proves that the West is falling and when it does folks like you are going to become targets (as last I checked Americans don't distinguish between Japanese and Chinese people.)

This is NOT something to laugh about. Or to troll about. Or to throw out statistics to be right about.
This is the most serious fucking problem this planet has faced yet, and its literally less than a year away.
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In the end, you and I are basically on the same page. I've said it before, I think Trump and his entire family (except for Ivanka and Melania) are royal pieces of shit. I don't like him, I participated in state/federal level campaigns against him and I think he's potentially very dangerous to democracy. I think he basically destroyed the national GOP, he turned presidential election cycles into chaotic reality TV and he enjoys watching the mess he's made. He's a narcissistic, egomaniacal asshole obsessed with his own glory and has zero loyalty to anyone and anything, least of which being the USA. But I'm basically throwing in with this tool because he's potentially useful and the better of two very horrible options.

Joe Biden is an utter disaster, and his unhinged, reckless policies are wreaking havoc on the country. The official DHS numbers are close to 10M illegals have flooded in, undocumented, unvetted and unscreened, and estimates are that close to 15M may come in before Biden is kicked out of office and Trump takes over. We ARE going to see another terrorist attack, or at least an attempt at one, due to the influx Biden's policies have allowed in. Major U.S. cities are at breaking points trying to deal with this crisis, and leave for last the surge in crime these illegals are causing. When Americans are afraid to walk on American streets because illegals are causing chaos (and being welcomed in, being given gift cards, being rewarded for breaking our laws) that's a red line for me.

Remember in 2016, all the predictions being parroted by the MSM? Trump will cause WW3. Trump will cause war with NK. Trump will cause war with Iran. Trump will crash the stock market. Trump will bring about the next Great Depression. None of it happened. Instead, and you have to at least admit this, we were doing pretty fucking great till the Middle Kingdom ruined life on Earth for three years. Economy was awesome, the U.S. wasn't tangled up in new wars, dictators weren't invading sovereign countries and dare I say life was pretty comfortable. I'm willing to go out on a limb and see if we can get that back again. And because I think that asshole actually learned a little bit about governance during his previous term and doesn't want to end up looking like a fucking moron--because, at the end of the day, all he really cares about is his image and reputation--I'm going to hold my nose and vote against my sensibilities because I think despite all his bluster and bullshit and hyperbole and threats, I think he's actually going to govern moderately and try to cement his legacy as the guy who saved the U.S. from Joe Biden.

Trust me, I'm just as worried as you about what's going to happen. FWIW, and I'm absolutely not saying this to attempt to boast or pretend I'm someone important, because I'm really not, but I am, personally, on the Trump campaign's list of political enemies. If I ever wanted to work in D.C. in the next four years, I'm shit out of luck. I gain absolutely nothing by this guy getting elected again, especially since I'm in the public sector again and public funding measures, which may dry up under GOP rule, are going to pay the bills. But again, we're on the same page. Trump is going to be the next POTUS. And I'm just going to cross my fingers and hope for the best.
 
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Keihan said:
Trump will crash the stock market. Trump will bring about the next Great Depression. None of it happened.
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Yeah, it's not like the stock market dropped 30% during Trump's term ... he wasn't even president in 2020 when that happened.
 
Meanwhile, at the RNC’s headquarters, it looks like our dear Keihan might lose his prized contacts….
Time to kiss the ring everybody !

 
Frenchy said:
Meanwhile, at the RNC’s headquarters, it looks like our dear Keihan might lose his prized contacts….
Time to kiss the ring everybody !
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Oh no! Now who's going to pay to support all those down ballot elections? Barron Trump is a renowned computer expert, but as the only talented family member even he's lacking on running the ground game for senate, house, and local elections. Donald Trump is at least going to have his legal bills paid along with all extra funds used in the forthcoming Big Lie lawsuits contesting every election he loses.
 
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