It probably means that a safe effective available vaccine is the only thing that will allow the Olympics to proceed in 2021 along normal lines ...... what is the chance of that?
Depends who you ask. You can listen to that idiot Fauci, whose story changes by the week. Or you can follow Trump's twitter, which is about equally trustworthy. Fauci says he's "confident" that we'll have an effective vaccine by Q1 2021. Others, including Wall Street hopefuls, are saying it may come as early as September or October. Realistic expectations were always set at 12-14 months from this past spring. Just rest assured that the entire world is racing toward a vaccine, faster than we ever did for mumps, polio or even HIV. We'll get there, eventually.
As I understand it, having to work with boring ass scientists and epidemiologists at the state level here, there are basically two types of vaccines being pursued now. Inactivated virus vaccines, like the one we use for the seasonal flu, and gene-based DNA/RNA vaccines, like the one Moderna is currently developing. The problem with inactivated virus vaccines is that they can be potentially very dangerous if not tested on a massive scale, which means it takes exceptionally longer--historically, several years minimum to conduct thorough safety tests. For that reason, a lot of pharma corporations are looking at the DNA/RNA vaccines, which have shown a lot of promise in small-scale testing by stimulating successful antibody growth but still present major challenges including delivery method, as well as the fact that we have no idea how long those antibody/protein protections will last, particularly in the elderly, how often we'd need follow-up vaccinations and then there's the issue of them being more difficult to produce on a large scale. Also keep in mind that despite promising results in early clinical trials, not a single DNA/RNA vaccine has ever been approved for use.
Personally, I think the biggest challenge will come at the bureaucratic level. Once a vaccine is approved, since it will come in limited quantities, politicians will have to decide who gets it first. I'm guessing medical workers and healthcare providers will be first in line (after the Trump family, Congress and all their biggest donors), followed by those over the age of 65, and then maybe six months later the rest of us peons can get it, probably according to age bracket with kids being last.
And then of course there's the rumor coming out of Europe that the COVID-19 virus has already mutated into a less harmful version that's now beginning to circulate, which means that by the time we actually get a fucking vaccine for COVID-19, COVID-19 will be largely gone and replaced by its pussy nephew who at best can elicit a nasty chest cold. Whatever happens, I just hope we keep carpet-bombing all of China as a reasonable option on the table of solutions.
