Daily WHO Reports for the Coronavirus Outbreak (Link)

[namae]

I may be (supposedly) COVID-proof and pulling my pants down in Kabukicho just after the new year.

Even after you have been vaccinated, do you think the US will let people undertake non-essential travel to countries that have not been vaccinated?

 

[Frenchy]

I may be (supposedly) COVID-proof and pulling my pants down in Kabukicho just after the new year.

Even after you have been vaccinated, do you think the US will let people undertake non-essential travel to countries that have not been vaccinated?

and will Japan accept to welcome them anyway?

 

[namae]

and will Japan accept to welcome them anyway?

I expect there will be quite a deal of vaccine politics involved - especially if Donald is still around.

But a bigger worry will be the millions of Chinese who will have a "vaccine" stamp in their passport. Dodgy vaccine and dodgy stamps.

 

[Keihan]

Even after you have been vaccinated, do you think the US will let people undertake non-essential travel to countries that have not been vaccinated?

and will Japan accept to welcome them anyway?

Yes and Yes.

1) The U.S. is currently enacting no restrictions on international travel for U.S. citizens, but does recommend we check on rules and restrictions in individual countries we are traveling to. That's very unlikely to change, particularly once our citizens are getting vaccinated.

2) My current location/state is one of a handful of locations around the world currently being considered by the Japanese government as a "travel bubble" region, with a reciprocal agreement between my state's government and the Japanese government allowing regulated travel between the two without mandatory quarantine, assuming certain testing requirements are met prior to entering. I believe officials on both sides were getting close to ironing out the details before the recent infection spikes in both Japan and my current location apparently stalled negotiations. There are significant economic and cultural benefits to both sides in implementing that bubble and it was initally slated to begin on 9/1, so I'm reasonably confident that once the numbers come down or a vaccine is approved it will be worked out before the new year.

 

[Keihan]

I expect there will be quite a deal of vaccine politics involved - especially if Donald is still around.

But a bigger worry will be the millions of Chinese who will have a "vaccine" stamp in their passport. Dodgy vaccine and dodgy stamps.

Especially if Trump is re-elected, I would expect our outright ban on Chinese travelers to remain for quite some time. I'm hoping Japan does the same, at least until I can get a spring trip in, as I'd be very grateful to get to experience one more wonderfully Chinese-free visit. But you can't ignore economic realities. Japan needs Chinese tourists. They'll be back soon enough.

 

[namae]

Yes and Yes.

1) The U.S. is currently enacting no restrictions on international travel for U.S. citizens, but does recommend we check on rules and restrictions in individual countries we are traveling to. That's very unlikely to change, particularly once our citizens are getting vaccinated.

2) My current location/state is one of a handful of locations around the world currently being considered by the Japanese government as a "travel bubble" region, with a reciprocal agreement between my state's government and the Japanese government allowing regulated travel between the two without mandatory quarantine, assuming certain testing requirements are met prior to entering. I believe officials on both sides were getting close to ironing out the details before the recent infection spikes in both Japan and my current location apparently stalled negotiations. There are significant economic and cultural benefits to both sides in implementing that bubble and it was initally slated to begin on 9/1, so I'm reasonably confident that once the numbers come down or a vaccine is approved it will be worked out before the new year.

I wouldn't rule out a policy flip after the USA moves up the covid clean league table. After Trump and America's great scientist have saved the country from this Chinese plague it maybe necessary to strictly control US borders until the USA and the Trump vaccine have saved the rest of the world. Until then, all non-essential travel (i.e. overseas tourism) may be on hold - especially if voices in the scientific community are raising questions about the Trump vaccine.

 

[Frenchy]

I wouldn't rule out a policy flip after the USA moves up the covid clean league table. After Trump and America's great scientist have saved the country from this Chinese plague it maybe necessary to strictly control US borders until the USA and the Trump vaccine have saved the rest of the world. Until then, all non-essential travel (i.e. overseas tourism) may be on hold - especially if voices in the scientific community are raising questions about the Trump vaccine.

Chinese Virus vs Trump Vaccine
Now that could make for a nice wrestling game

 

[namae]

Chinese Virus vs Trump Vaccine
Now that could make for a nice wrestling game

I read a couple of days ago that PNG refused entry to some Chinese miners that had been guinea pigs for a Chinese vaccine. I expect we will see more of this. Strict border control motivated by science or politics....mostly politics.

 

[shadowboxer]

Chinese Virus vs Trump Vaccine
Now that could make for a nice wrestling game

Indeed, but then again we already know the outcome of such a staged fight.

 

[Keihan]

I wouldn't rule out a policy flip after the USA moves up the covid clean league table. After Trump and America's great scientist have saved the country from this Chinese plague it maybe necessary to strictly control US borders until the USA and the Trump vaccine have saved the rest of the world. Until then, all non-essential travel (i.e. overseas tourism) may be on hold - especially if voices in the scientific community are raising questions about the Trump vaccine.

I would bet very heavily against that ever happening, as that would go against everything that's known about Trump's attitude on travel in general and also against historical U.S. policy. As far as foreign tourists coming into the U.S., of course, I would expect there would be extreme restrictions and outright bans continuing far beyond vaccine approval, particularly from Trump's "shithole" countries where we don't trust the vaccine is being implemented adequately. But as far as the official U.S. policy limiting our own citizens from going to other countries, any such minor CDC/FDA restrictions were lifted several months ago and are very, very unlikely to be reinstated. Even in the worst times, the State Dept or CDC will make "strong recommendations" about where we shouldn't travel (usually terrorism related issues), but actual restrictions are very unlikely to happen.

The Trump, Trump Supporter and GOP/conservative mindset in general is against any sort of restrictions--these are the assholes you see holding protest parades, refusing to stay home, socially distance or wear masks. It's all about OPEN UP NOW and they don't give a shit about repercussions because "the vaccine is coming any day now" (even though it actually looks like it is). Trump's take on the entire situation now and probably for the foreseeable future is "YOU CAN'T COME HERE BUT WE CAN GO ANYWHERE WE WANT."

The only way Americans are going to face travel restrictions is if other countries ban us from entering, which of course is the case now and could expand if other leaders doubt the efficacy of whatever vaccine comes out. But again, that's not a very big concern of mine because of the planned "bubble" and historical relationship between Japan and my current location. Granted, all I'm after is a vacation next spring so I can have fun. I'm not desperate to get back, but if I were, I'd just do whatever a few of my departing clients with Japanese citizen wives have apparently been successful at and use my spousal privileges to get a visa to live there again (which I will NEVER do).

But at the end of the day this is just meaningless speculation. I like to keep up on what's happening to plan for all outcomes, but this is really just a daydream mechanism to pass time in lock-down when drinking and/or masturbating isn't feasible.

 

[Nixon2]

Personally feeling very ambivalent about the hysteria and anticipation about the vaccines. I don't believe for an instant that I haven't been exposed to the virus considering my daily close contact with clients plus the population density of Yokohama and Tokyo particularly in the trains but also most dining and entertainment establishments. Any sane person, whether fearful of the virus or not, cannot deny that there are probably untold thousands (maybe tens of thousands) of positive cases walking around undetected on top of those identified and reported in the media.

Given that these thousands are walking around happily and healthily, I don't know about the medical benefits of either hyping up or making it mandatory to use a rushed vaccine...

 

[Keihan]

In case anyone is interested, a major American medical advisory committee has issued recommended guidelines on how the vaccine should be distributed here stateside whenever it finally arrives. With all of Trump's posturing and the recent FDA hints at rushed approval, it appears people are getting ready. And seeing as how America looks poised to be first in widespread distribution of a major vaccine, and how other countries (Japan) tend to follow our lead, it may be an indication of how things are rolled out in your neck of the woods.

Proposed distribution of the vaccine would be done in four phases. The first three phases, or groups to be vaccinated, would cover about 85%-95% of the country and would be as follows:

1) Frontline/Healthcare workers, and vulnerable and/or elderly Americans with underlying medical issues.

2) Essential workers--teachers, people in homeless shelters, people in prisons, jails or detention centers. Prisoners are defined as "anyone who is deprived of personal liberty...following conviction of a crime."

3) Young adults, children and workers in "essential industries."

So for the vast majority of us who are not doctors, nurses or old and sickly, it appears we may have quite a wait for the injection--at least a few months into 2021, this group is predicting. As for the second phase, I agree with vaccinating educators--I never got sick more often than when I was a school teacher. Personally, however, I don't see the logic in rewarding criminals and convicts by ensuring their safety so that they can get out healthy and better prepared to commit more crimes and have children who will do the same, but these medial advisory coalitions tend to be made of up bleeding heart types and I'm hoping Trump doesn't bother to follow those specific recommendations.

Just for fun, imagine if this proposed roll-out becomes reality. Looks like I may have to pull strings and get a PT gig teaching night school classes to high school dropouts and other flunkies. Prepare to see a massive influx of middle-aged expats applying for their old eikaiwa gigs at NOVA, ECC or GABA like it's 1999 all over again. Of you could just start a bar fight, steal a bike or masturbate in front of some schoolgirls on a train--something that'll get you locked up long enough to get your vaccination but short enough to enjoy a mask-free hanami party.

In other news, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has arrived in America to wrap up its Phase-III testing. If anyone is near the Detroit area, it might be worthwhile to see if you can get on the list.

 

[UnicornHunter]

If you were a betting man, you think an April/May target for tourist travel to Japan is a possibility? Flights in the early spring are ridiculously low for me right now....

 

[Keihan]

If you were a betting man, you think an April/May target for tourist travel to Japan is a possibility? Flights in the early spring are ridiculously low for me right now....

I honestly think that's a possibility. I'm personally laying out plans for an early March trip to Tokyo and crossing my fingers. But also keep in mind that even if Americans get vaccinated, there's no guarantee Japan will allow them in just yet--particularly with so many southwest states undergoing huge surges, and the potential for re-surges anywhere in the country once people come out of lock-down (look at Spain). As I mentioned earlier I'm currently located in a region that the Japanese government is considering granting a reciprocal travel exemption to as we have comparatively very low rates of COVID (although we are going through a surge) so my timeline may be different from yours.

I'm also basing all of this on speculation I'm getting from political connections in D.C. I obviously know nothing about the science or medicine behind the larger picture, but in the era of Trump, politics is playing an increasingly larger role in how our government operates so take it for what you will.

With that said, take everything we currently know about how Trump's administration and his underlings are operating. Trump wants this vaccine, or at least an approval for a vaccine, before the November election. That's not up for debate. I think it's fair to say that Trump would be willing to do virtually anything to make that happen. Also, in the midst of this pandemic and with many states switching to all-mail ballots, the majority of Americans will be voting through mail or absentee/early voting, which in most states will begin around mid-October. Trump needs an approval by that time, at latest by end of October of the effect on voters will be negligible. That's not to say Trump can't win outright even without a vaccine, with Joe Biden's mental faculties quickly and obviously declining, but that's an entirely different issue.

Several weeks ago I was hearing that Trump's people had identified the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine as the one they'd pick for emergency approval. Now, I'm hearing it may be Novavax, which is supposedly showing even better results and is easier to transport and distribute but further behind in testing. To that end, FDA's Steve Hahn has suddenly changed his tune and is now saying he's willing to issue emergency approval without Phase-III testing. We know the government is now prepping for distribution.

So let's say, best case scenario, Trump gets his vaccine approved in early October, or in about five weeks. And let's also assume that the news reports are true, and we're currently sitting on potentially a half-million doses of the vaccine awaiting approval. By every account, those first available doses will to go front-line workers and healthcare staff, as it should. Most agree that such a small amount won't have a noticeable impact. It will, however, have a political impact as Trump can now start bragging that his vaccine has arrived and he's saving the country.

Then let's say most of his posturing is true, and he can very quickly secure "a hundred million doses" by the end of the year. What does that mean? By Thanksgiving? Christmas? And even if he does, most of that amount will almost certainly still be allocated for healthcare workers, front-line and first-responders and then probably elderly or high-risk if there's anything left. I would venture a guess, just looking at the initial estimates, that very few of us will have access to a shot in 2020.

And let's also not forget that virtually every vaccine in development requires two doses (at least). So whatever number we get, say 500k, is really only 250k people vaccinated. Also keep in mind that there are three competing vaccines in Phase-III trials now, so even if they don't get an EUA they may very likely get approval around the new year. How many of those doses can Trump get his hands on? A hundred million of each? So then it comes down to how quickly these corporations can manufacture and deliver vaccinations. And here's where my insight ends, because I know jack shit about how that works. But for the sake of argument, let's say most of the speculation pans out and the Average Joe will finally be able to get vaccinated in early 2021. Let's say you actually get vaccinated on January 1st. Follow-up shot is 3-4 weeks later. Supposedly takes another month after that to build up max antibody protection. So IN THEORY, you might be fully vaccinated by early March. And then all of this rests on the massive assumption that the vaccine ACTUALLY WORKS. How long after that does it take to bring down global numbers to the point where countries feel safe to open up? It ain't going to happen in a month. Maybe results start showing up in two months? Three?

And then assuming all of the developed world has access to vaccinations in early 2021, the other big variable comes into play: Will everyone willingly get vaccinated? Reports and polls are showing that roughly 40% of Americans say they'll refuse to take a COVID vaccine. I would say a quarter of my own friends and colleagues have expressed similar sentiments, and they're serious about it. They think it's a government conspiracy (and yes, they're all republicans). So how quickly do numbers come down when almost half the fucking country is playing tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist and refusing to get a shot. Scientists have suggested that we may only need at least 40% of the population to have immunity in order to reach actual herd immunity, but it sure isn't going to help when half the people around you are potential carriers.

But again, who knows? Not me, for sure. I'm not the brightest guy around, which is why I ended up operating in politics rather than a laboratory. I can make an (un)educated guess about how the politics will affect things but you should really ask your doctor friends or relatives for their opinion of what happens after Trump gets his approval and the first vaccine arrives.

 

[Frenchy]

I honestly think that's a possibility. I'm personally laying out plans for an early March trip to Tokyo and crossing my fingers. But also keep in mind that even if Americans get vaccinated, there's no guarantee Japan will allow them in just yet--particularly with so many southwest states undergoing huge surges, and the potential for re-surges anywhere in the country once people come out of lock-down (look at Spain). As I mentioned earlier I'm currently located in a region that the Japanese government is considering granting a reciprocal travel exemption to as we have comparatively very low rates of COVID (although we are going through a surge) so my timeline may be different from yours.

I'm also basing all of this on speculation I'm getting from political connections in D.C. I obviously know nothing about the science or medicine behind the larger picture, but in the era of Trump, politics is playing an increasingly larger role in how our government operates so take it for what you will.

With that said, take everything we currently know about how Trump's administration and his underlings are operating. Trump wants this vaccine, or at least an approval for a vaccine, before the November election. That's not up for debate. I think it's fair to say that Trump would be willing to do virtually anything to make that happen. Also, in the midst of this pandemic and with many states switching to all-mail ballots, the majority of Americans will be voting through mail or absentee/early voting, which in most states will begin around mid-October. Trump needs an approval by that time, at latest by end of October of the effect on voters will be negligible. That's not to say Trump can't win outright even without a vaccine, with Joe Biden's mental faculties quickly and obviously declining, but that's an entirely different issue.

Several weeks ago I was hearing that Trump's people had identified the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine as the one they'd pick for emergency approval. Now, I'm hearing it may be Novavax, which is supposedly showing even better results and is easier to transport and distribute but further behind in testing. To that end, FDA's Steve Hahn has suddenly changed his tune and is now saying he's willing to issue emergency approval without Phase-III testing. We know the government is now prepping for distribution.

So let's say, best case scenario, Trump gets his vaccine approved in early October, or in about five weeks. And let's also assume that the news reports are true, and we're currently sitting on potentially a half-million doses of the vaccine awaiting approval. By every account, those first available doses will to go front-line workers and healthcare staff, as it should. Most agree that such a small amount won't have a noticeable impact. It will, however, have a political impact as Trump can now start bragging that his vaccine has arrived and he's saving the country.

Then let's say most of his posturing is true, and he can very quickly secure "a hundred million doses" by the end of the year. What does that mean? By Thanksgiving? Christmas? And even if he does, most of that amount will almost certainly still be allocated for healthcare workers, front-line and first-responders and then probably elderly or high-risk if there's anything left. I would venture a guess, just looking at the initial estimates, that very few of us will have access to a shot in 2020.

And let's also not forget that virtually every vaccine in development requires two doses (at least). So whatever number we get, say 500k, is really only 250k people vaccinated. Also keep in mind that there are three competing vaccines in Phase-III trials now, so even if they don't get an EUA they may very likely get approval around the new year. How many of those doses can Trump get his hands on? A hundred million of each? So then it comes down to how quickly these corporations can manufacture and deliver vaccinations. And here's where my insight ends, because I know jack shit about how that works. But for the sake of argument, let's say most of the speculation pans out and the Average Joe will finally be able to get vaccinated in early 2021. Let's say you actually get vaccinated on January 1st. Follow-up shot is 3-4 weeks later. Supposedly takes another month after that to build up max antibody protection. So IN THEORY, you might be fully vaccinated by early March. And then all of this rests on the massive assumption that the vaccine ACTUALLY WORKS. How long after that does it take to bring down global numbers to the point where countries feel safe to open up? It ain't going to happen in a month. Maybe results start showing up in two months? Three?

And then assuming all of the developed world has access to vaccinations in early 2021, the other big variable comes into play: Will everyone willingly get vaccinated? Reports and polls are showing that roughly 40% of Americans say they'll refuse to take a COVID vaccine. I would say a quarter of my own friends and colleagues have expressed similar sentiments, and they're serious about it. They think it's a government conspiracy (and yes, they're all republicans). So how quickly do numbers come down when almost half the fucking country is playing tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist and refusing to get a shot. Scientists have suggested that we may only need at least 40% of the population to have immunity in order to reach actual herd immunity, but it sure isn't going to help when half the people around you are potential carriers.

But again, who knows? Not me, for sure. I'm not the brightest guy around, which is why I ended up operating in politics rather than a laboratory. I can make an (un)educated guess about how the politics will affect things but you should really ask your doctor friends or relatives for their opinion of what happens after Trump gets his approval and the first vaccine arrives.

what I don’t quite get is why people would fall for « it’s a Trump vaccine » nonsense. Does he own the firms that make it? Sounds like wishful thinking to me

 

[Sudsy]

what I don’t quite get is why people would fall for « it’s a Trump vaccine » nonsense.

 

[Keihan]

what I don’t quite get is why people would fall for « it’s a Trump vaccine » nonsense. Does he own the firms that make it? Sounds like wishful thinking to me

Because when people are scared they're looking for a savior.

Politics 101: Tell people the world is going to end and only you can save them, take credit for any victories, people will worship you.

 

[Frenchy]

Because when people are scared they're looking for a savior.

Politics 101: Tell people the world is going to end and only you can save them, take credit for any victories, people will worship you.

yeah well so far it didn’t help much your hero... most people are not so dumb as to think he did enough vs Covid19 ... you can’t get credit for inexistent victories
But if it makes you feel better to think he’s the all-powerful Deus Ex Machina who will get the vaccines done , why not man...
I think Macron is the reincarnation of Jesus then

 

[Nixon2]

yeah well so far it didn’t help much your hero...

I have my own opinion of Trump but I don't have a dog in the fight. All we can say is what happened 4 years ago happened and could happen again.
I'd be wary about what internationally-popular media outlets report about polling, popularity and election chances.

 

[Frenchy]

I have my own opinion of Trump but I don't have a dog in the fight. All we can say is what happened 4 years ago happened and could happen again.
I'd be wary about what internationally-popular media outlets report about polling, popularity and election chances.

Yes, especially for a country where the loser can win

 

[Keihan]

I have my own opinion of Trump but I don't have a dog in the fight. All we can say is what happened 4 years ago happened and could happen again.
I'd be wary about what internationally-popular media outlets report about polling, popularity and election chances.

Like you, I don't have a dog in the fight and I'm not involved in national-level politics this year. But unlike those here suffering from rabid, emotional TDS, I can also speak as the only person here who held an official position in the 2016 national-level party movement to block Trump from getting the GOP nomination. I was also part of the Republican party leadership and establishment that completely wrote him off and by September 2016 assumed that we'd lost the presidential race. And from everything I learned from that race, you're absolutely correct.

Four years ago, most political pollsters or odds-makers had Hillary at around a 95%-98% chance of winning. Trump's supposed favorability numbers among women, African Americans and Hispanic Americans were utterly abysmal. His swing-state odds were in the toilet. After we were unable to stop him from getting the nomination, pretty much everyone and all of the operatives like myself just shifted to 2020 and defeating the second President Clinton. And then Trump won.

This time around, the numbers--which again suggest he'll lose--are far less troubling. As Biden continues to falter mentally and cognitively, as Democratic-controlled cities continue to burn and Democratic leaders either stand there like deer in headlights or, worse, praise the marxist rioters and call them "peaceful," and as Trump pulled off a truly remarkable convention, he's seen a bump across the scale. He's up ten points with African American voters, inching up with suburban housewives and the DJI is about to hit 29k again. Pollsters still project he'll "lose," but he's in a far better statistical position now than he was in 9/2016. And we know how that year went. Stats and polls don't mean shit but if they do then Trump has a lot to smile about.

Fortunately for me, I'm still capable of keeping an objective view of things. I don't have any emotional investment in whoever wins the race. As I see it now, the race really is a toss-up but Trump is slowly gaining and Biden is slowly sinking. The debates are going to either seriously jeopardize or possibly destroy Biden's chances of winning if his dementia comes out front and center, and at this point it's clear he can't even read a teleprompter anymore without getting lost. And if Trump gets the vaccine approval and we're distributing doses before the end of October, that'll be all he needs to easily cement his second term.

 

[Nixon2]

Yes, especially for a country where the loser can win

Well he wasn't the loser according to the system that they follow, so...

 

[MikeH]

most people are not so dumb as to think he did enough vs Covid19 ...

Oh you sweet child of summer...

And to claim credit of non-existent victories is exactly why they have all the keihans working for them.

 

[MikeH]

Yes, especially for a country where the loser can win

Even in the football the team that scores more goals wins, not the team that controls the ball more or has better haircuts. Though watching the players I understand why someone would be confused about the latter point.

 

[Keihan]

And to claim credit of non-existent victories is exactly why they have all the keihans working for them.

Composing that flavor of shameless and obscene bullshit is actually exactly what I'm brought in to do. Not going to lie...I love it.