When the coming shitstorm is finally over--and I mean the lawsuits, litigation, recounts and accusations--I won't be surprised by either outcome. All conventional data from trusted sources (RNC internal polling hovering around 10 points now) is showing a pretty decisive loss for Trump. However, in 2016, all conventional data from those same trusted sources were showing a decisive victory for Clinton, and by very similar margins. I offer these points to consider as we head toward the final showdown.
1) Trump proved that polling can't be trusted.
2) Trump has created the most divisive political climate in modern American history and continues to behave like an egomaniacal, petulant child. The single biggest issue on voters' minds now is COVID, and Trump is gleefully trying to write it off as nothing but fear-mongering that's about to magically disappear at any moment. That leads to the common narrative: How could anyone in his/her right fucking mind vote for this asshole??
3) Trump also created, prior to the virus, the most prosperous economy and economic figures since the Great Depression. His tax cuts significantly improved take-home pay for the middle class. There's no way to try to spin it otherwise, middle class families are taking home more money. I know for sure I certainly am. And educated Americans tend to vote with their wallets. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are promising to erase those gains, cancel those tax cuts and won't even admit to their plan to pack SCOTUS full of radicals. Joe Biden is also clearly mentally declining, and people can't stand Harris. That could lead to the same voters who voted for Trump in 2016, who may be absolutely sick and tired of his antics, also coming to the conclusion that they at least know what he'll likely do. Hysterical liberals promised he'd lead us into WWIII, crash the stock market and destroy healthcare...and none of that happened. He's an unpleasant but relatively safe bet. They're ashamed to admit this to friends and certainly won't reveal this to anonymous pollsters who call their homes at 6pm. But if at least 97% of people who voted for Trump in 2016 do so again, depending on the state breakdown, he could, in theory, win with just as resounding an electoral college knockout in November.
4) National polls now have Biden ahead by an average of 12%, widening since last week. However, take a look at individual swing-stage polls like Ohio, Michigan and most importantly, Florida. Some of them have Trump declining, some of them gaining, and the numbers just don't add up to national polling and what the RNC polls are showing. Again, polls can't be trusted.
I give you
this, as an example of something to think about.
BET founder won't endorse Trump but says 'I will take the devil I know'
Says, “Where I come out as a businessman, I will take the devil I know over the devil I don’t know any time of the week."
"I know what President Trump has done and what he’s said he will do. I don’t know what Vice President Biden has said he will do other than masks, listen to the scientists."
Again, just something to think about. People I trust and respect as some of our nation's top political operatives are guaranteeing that Trump will be defeated, and I generally defer to their wisdom as they're far more intelligent and resourceful than I am. But at the end of the day I'm a shameless opportunist and street operator, and that means I always hedge my bets. I try to make sure I win no matter what happens.
It would be a grave mistake to count Trump out just yet. I'm not laying any money on this one.