Safe to visit?

[SugoiBoy]

I'll definitely keep my eyes on this thread as I hope to visit when it's most reasonable to. I definitely want to experience the traditional izakayas and visit Senso-ji. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

My guess is that Japan might not fully open up to tourists until 2022.

If you are into temples and shrines, then a side trip to Kamakura is worth considering. It’s closer to Tokyo than Kyoto.

 

[RoboReptar]

My guess is that Japan might not fully open up to tourists until 2022.

If you are into temples and shrines, then a side trip to Kamakura is worth considering. It’s closer to Tokyo than Kyoto.

At the rate of vaccinations in Japan I would say mid 2022 unfortunately. Unless something magically changes but change seems to come slow there.

 

[Joe2017]

At the rate of vaccinations in Japan I would say mid 2022 unfortunately. Unless something magically changes but change seems to come slow there.

Your point is quite realistic. Current rate is 1.5% (below some African countries). Government waited so long to place the orders. Now they are imploring the manufacturers to increase production. That’s the only possible miracle.

 

[TAG Manager]

Government waited so long to place the orders.

Not only that but the total lack of foresight for logistical planning to actually execute an effective mass vaccination effort.

 

[Sudsy]

And of course, Kono signing the Pfizer contracts on a "best effort" basis - his handling of vaccine procurement is probably the end of his political career.

Not even his fault, really - the Abe administration left the country with a nice steaming shit sandwich on the way out the door.

 

[MikeH]

Not only that but the total lack of foresight for logistical planning to actually execute an effective mass vaccination effort.

I think they just said in the telly they managed to vaccinate over thirteen thousand of the old folks today. Yippie-fucking-kay-yay, with that rate they are moving to under 65 year olds in less than eleven years.

 

[Ken1988]

The import schedule indicates that the supply increases 6 times more than the past week this week (of April 19). It seems that currently it takes a week to ship the vaccines from the warehouses to the municipalities. It's all up to this week's performance to see if they are really hopelessly slow or not. For the majority of elderly, their turns will be after May 17.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/vaccine_supply.html

 

[MongerInAStrLnd]

I think they just said in the telly they managed to vaccinate over thirteen thousand of the old folks today. Yippie-fucking-kay-yay, with that rate they are moving to under 65 year olds in less than eleven years.

Remember, to calculate the running number to be vaccinated you need to subtract the ones that kick the bucket unvaccinated and add all the newly '65s

 

[Joe2017]

The import schedule indicates that the supply increases 6 times more than the past week this week (of April 19). It seems that currently it takes a week to ship the vaccines from the warehouses to the municipalities. It's all up to this week's performance to see if they are really hopelessly slow or not. For the majority of elderly, their turns will be after May 17.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/vaccine_supply.html

If it weren't for crying those low qualities of boxes would be a good joke.

 

[MikeH]

Remember, to calculate the running number to be vaccinated you need to subtract the ones that kick the bucket unvaccinated and add all the newly '65s

With this rate we are in a month in a situation where more vaccinated elders kick the bucket than are newly vaccinated...

 

[shadowboxer]

With this rate we are in a month in a situation where more vaccinated elders kick the bucket than are newly vaccinated...

I love your creative math.

 

[Keihan]

Not sure if this potentially affects Japan, but I'm seeing a lot of reports coming from multiple states here in the U.S. that massive stockpiles of unused vaccines are building up, particularly in states with large populations that expanded eligibility early on. Some states are reporting in excess of 500k doses just sitting in storage; others are reporting hundreds of daily missed vaccination appointments. I was at my local pharmacy today and the line at the special vaccination counter was completely empty.

What that's basically indicating is that to a growing extent, those in America who actually want to be vaccinated already have been, or will be shortly. Even in my current state, which is an ass-backwards blue state that just expanded general eligibility (16+) from today and had one of the slowest roll-outs in the country, just about everyone I know who wanted to get vaccinated has been vaccinated. To the Biden Admin's credit, they really did push to secure far more vaccine than anyone projected six months ago, and now it appears we may be approaching the point where supply is outpacing demand.

The question is, if this trend continues in America, will the Biden Admin share/redistribute our excess supply with other countries, like Japan? My guess is no. Federal agencies here are now aggressively ramping up campaigns encouraging people to get their vaccines, of course targeting the very demographic which is the reason we have so many unused doses--the anti-vaxxers and young idiots who can't be bothered. Also the very same demographic accounting for the majority of new infections. My approach would be to say FUCK'EM and let them get sick, but obviously the government won't let that happen.

But even if the U.S. started shipping excess doses to Japan, would the Japanese government even be in the position to effectively and dramatically expand vaccination efforts? Because from what I can tell, by the time the general population in Japan has access, Pfizer and the others will probably be on the second or third or fourth version of the booster shot to deal with all the variants and the shots we're giving now will be obsolete.

Oh well. I was hoping for a Japan trip in November/December but something tells me it'll be well into 2022 before I step off a plane at Haneda again.

 

[MikeH]

But even if the U.S. started shipping excess doses to Japan, would the Japanese government even be in the position to effectively and dramatically expand vaccination efforts?

They certainly would, if the manufacturers would come up with a version of the vaccine that can be delivered through the fax machine.

 

[Ken1988]

Not sure if this potentially affects Japan, but I'm seeing a lot of reports coming from multiple states here in the U.S. that massive stockpiles of unused vaccines are building up, particularly in states with large populations that expanded eligibility early on. Some states are reporting in excess of 500k doses just sitting in storage; others are reporting hundreds of daily missed vaccination appointments. I was at my local pharmacy today and the line at the special vaccination counter was completely empty.

What that's basically indicating is that to a growing extent, those in America who actually want to be vaccinated already have been, or will be shortly. Even in my current state, which is an ass-backwards blue state that just expanded general eligibility (16+) from today and had one of the slowest roll-outs in the country, just about everyone I know who wanted to get vaccinated has been vaccinated. To the Biden Admin's credit, they really did push to secure far more vaccine than anyone projected six months ago, and now it appears we may be approaching the point where supply is outpacing demand.

The question is, if this trend continues in America, will the Biden Admin share/redistribute our excess supply with other countries, like Japan? My guess is no. Federal agencies here are now aggressively ramping up campaigns encouraging people to get their vaccines, of course targeting the very demographic which is the reason we have so many unused doses--the anti-vaxxers and young idiots who can't be bothered. Also the very same demographic accounting for the majority of new infections. My approach would be to say FUCK'EM and let them get sick, but obviously the government won't let that happen.

But even if the U.S. started shipping excess doses to Japan, would the Japanese government even be in the position to effectively and dramatically expand vaccination efforts? Because from what I can tell, by the time the general population in Japan has access, Pfizer and the others will probably be on the second or third or fourth version of the booster shot to deal with all the variants and the shots we're giving now will be obsolete.

Oh well. I was hoping for a Japan trip in November/December but something tells me it'll be well into 2022 before I step off a plane at Haneda again.

I'm not sure the validity of this VF article, but if it's true, the US can't send domestically produced vaccines abroad...
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/202...donate-covid-19-vaccines-to-countries-in-need

The J Gov's just released data show their Monday's performance stood at 123,258 shots. It's SLOW. A huge amount of vaccines were dispatched over the weekend to get a million healthcare workers inoculated this week, and another one million next week. If they don't reach a million per week this week, they are f-cking slow. Come on, Japan!

 

[MikeH]

If they don't reach a million per week this week, they are f-cking slow. Come on, Japan!

Nyah, they have so much they need to throw some away anyways.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210419/p2a/00m/0na/004000c

And what do you mean by slow? They started vaccinating health care workers two months ago and already now almost 25% of them have received at least one shot. It's going to be race to see if they get them all vaccinated before the virus has mutated so much they need another vaccine.

 

[Ken1988]

Nyah, they have so much they need to throw some away anyways.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210419/p2a/00m/0na/004000c

And what do you mean by slow? They started vaccinating health care workers two months ago and already now almost 25% of them have received at least one shot. It's going to be race to see if they get them all vaccinated before the virus has mutated so much they need another vaccine.

As far as I remember, the leftover doses stood at 5 out of about 1000 doses administered on the first day, which is not bad. BNT162b2 needs to be used within 6 hours once in a syringe. Thus, it happens and it's been happening outside Japan, too. They are stupid if they waste the whole vial as leftover (it needs to be used up within 5 days after defrozen), but the article indicates that that's not the case (yet).

They have already released the schedule of incoming vaccine shipments. According to the schedule, the doses available for the first shot this week is about 1.7 million and another 1.7 million next week. It's a huge increase because the doses received from March 1 to the previous week for the first shot totaled 1.4 million. The supply increases to 2 million doses per week in subsequent weeks, and then to 8 million per week in mid-May. They are now in the stage that they can't excuse being slow for the lack of supply. 120,000 per day is slow. I hope it reaches over 200,000 today.

 

[MongerInAStrLnd]

It's going to rapidly become obvious that once the supply no longer is constrained that the next limiting factor will be the number of medical personnel available to administer them and the likely situation that the typical 30 minute post-jab wait before the recipient is released to leave just plain will not work

 

[MikeH]

It's going to rapidly become obvious that once the supply no longer is constrained that the next limiting factor will be the number of medical personnel available to administer them and the likely situation that the typical 30 minute post-jab wait before the recipient is released to leave just plain will not work

I think the plan is still only doctors can deliver those vaccines? While nurses would most probably be the best to do it...

 

[Viggagadye]

Do you guys think that once Japan's gates open to tourism, there will be a massive influx, or do you think people will still be wary?
I would like to get back as soon as possible, but I also don't relish the idea of being there when there are so many tourists around. Which is why I kind of avoid sakura season.

 

[Keihan]

Do you guys think that once Japan's gates open to tourism, there will be a massive influx, or do you think people will still be wary?
I would like to get back as soon as possible, but I also don't relish the idea of being there when there are so many tourists around. Which is why I kind of avoid sakura season.

I think that'll largely depend on what Japan's infection numbers are when they finally re-open. If things are going well, which I'm assuming will have to be the case for Japan to re-open, you'll probably see a massive influx of tourists from all over the world. My current state, which at one point had the lowest infection numbers in the country (under 20/day in a state of 1,000,000), made the fucking moronic decision to re-open to tourism back in October: On the first day, 20k fucking tourists flooded the state, many from virus hotspots like California. Big surprise, we're back up into triple digits now and the numbers are rising since we very quickly acquired the CA variant which now accounts for 75% of new cases and also rising.

However, if Tokyo is still clocking triple-digits in 2022 and Japan still re-opens, I would assume tourists from better-faring countries, even if they're vaccinated, might be wary of visiting. Take China, for example, which seems to have done a pretty good job of eradicating new infections. Chinese tourists might not be very eager to visit Japan until it's at least as safe as their own country, and probably avoid Japan in favor of safer vacation spots.

But wouldn't that be absolutely beautiful??

 

[MikeH]

Which is why I kind of avoid sakura season.

I think it was just announced to be starting again https://tokyoadultguide.com/threads/sakura-independent-japanese-escort.24801/

 

[Sudsy]

I think the plan is still only doctors can deliver those vaccines? While nurses would most probably be the best to do it...

They're looking into allowing dentists to administer it as well, as they're properly trained in injections and most have the correct facilities to store the vaccines.

 

[MikeH]

They're looking into allowing dentists to administer it as well, as they're properly trained in injections and most have the correct facilities to store the vaccines.

I would generally be happier to get injected by a nurse than a doctor, but I am willing to let my dentist to do anything she wants with me.

 

[MongerInAStrLnd]

They're looking into allowing dentists to administer it as well, as they're properly trained in injections and most have the correct facilities to store the vaccines.

No dentist will already have the -70℃ storage freezer required for the Pfizer jab.

 

[Sudsy]

No dentist will already have the -70℃ storage freezer required for the Pfizer jab.

For two weeks prior to mixing, they just need a regular freezer (-25 to -15) and afterwards can be stored up to 5 days in regular refrigeration. The ultra-cold is for long term storage and transportation - and dry ice is readily available for that if necessary.